Inland Empire Congressional Race Between Congressman Ken Calvert, Will Rollins At Dead Heat In Latest Poll

A new poll released this week found that the 41st Congressional District race between Congressman Ken Calvert (R-CA) and Attorney Will Rollins (D) is now a dead heat, with both candidates locked in with 45% and 10% remaining undecided.

Since 1993, Calvert has been the Congressman for the Inland Empire District. The current boundaries of the district stretch from the outer banks of the Inland Empire across the desert to the outskirts of Indio, covering cities like Palm Springs along the way. Since being elected, the district has been a close call for Calvert several times, with most races having Calvert with with between 50% and 55% of the vote. In 2022 Calvert won by just 11,000 votes, good enough for 52.3% of the vote.

As such, the 2024 election had Calvert down as vulnerable once again, especially with more L.A. residents moving to his district in the past few years. Back in March, Calvert won the Primary election with 53% of the vote, defeating Rollins, who came in second with only around 38%. However, Rollins soon won over the shifting district with a May poll now showing him up over Calvert 45% to 44%. Harris being installed as the candidate and some local blunders caused Rollins to shoot up even more, with him climbing to a 41% to 35% with 24% undecided lead by the late summer.

However, things quickly changed in September. Rollins’ career as a prosecutor came under scrutiny, with new reports finding that he had gone easy on many drug dealers and gang members despite running as a tough on crime candidate. That, plus Harris’ post convention down-ballot bump waning meant that Calvert was prime to jump back up. At the end of September, Calvert had retaken the lead, going up by one point 48% to 47%. Rollins didn’t give up, and pushed for more ads, fueled by the national party pouring millions into his campaign. This only did so much for Rollins, and the poll released this week found that it is now a virtual tie, with both candidates at 45%, with 10% undecided.

A tied district

The poll didn’t include recent factors, like the upswing of Latino voters for GOP candidates, and the boost a recent Trump rally in Coachella gave candidates. But the poll did serve to show that Rollins still can’t get back into the lead from earlier this year, and that Calvert’s late election season run up of support is once again working in his favor. And with between 5% and 10% still undecided in the race now in a tie, both candidates will now be going all out in the district.

“Calvert’s District has been on the Democrat’s shopping list since the 90’s, and this year is proving to be their best chance yet to get it,” explained Gina DeSimone, a Washington-based analyst who focused on close Congressional races in Western states, in a Globe interview on Friday. “Calvert always manages late election magic to move up, and it looks like he is doing it again. But Rollins is remaining strong, and he really wants to outlast him in support for once.

“If the GOP holds the district, it will be a sigh of relief. If Rollins gets it, it will be a huge get for the Democrats. Like every close race in California this year, both Republicans and Democrats have been dumping money into their respective campaigns. Between now and November 5th, you can be a teen using Tik Tok or someone in their 90s reading the paper, and you are going to be bombarded with ads for one or he other. It’s close and a lot is riding on it. That poll last month showing Calvert ahead rattled Rollins. He doesn’t want to lose to him again.

“It’s honestly too close to call. If anything, who all comes more for either Harris or Trump will likely decide the race, as both candidates are lumped in with their party candidate. Calvert probably still has the slight edge as an incumbent and feeding off recent GOP gains. But will it be enough this year is the question.”

Final polls in the district are expected in the next few months.