It’s Official: Gascon Vs. Hochman in November

On November 5^th, voters across the country will head back to the polls to see if they can fix everything currently going on in the nation.

Now, that won’t happen, of course, and millions of people will have actually voted or, um, “voted” by mail prior but still one can hope – especially in California.

At the statewide level, Democrat congenital – insert whichever defect you want here – Congressman Adam Schiff will face former baseball player Steve Garvey.  During the primary campaign Schiff went out of his way to spend a bunch of money “helping” Garvey, or rigging the vote if you’re Katie Porter, get into the November runoff.

The strategy worked, but maybe too well.  While Schiff will just nip Garvey in the “full term” primary by less than 5.000 votes, Garvey has comfortably won the “be a senator for two months to fill out the rest of DiFi’s term” vote by almost 300,000 votes.  

Not every senate candidate participated in both primaries, meaning a narrower field which saw Schiff drop by 2.3%, Garvey by less, 1.7%, but every other candidate went up.

As to Proposition 1, it will hold on, but just barely with a 28,000 vote margin.  Considering Gov. Gavin Newsom raised and spent about $13 million to pass it and the opposition spent zero, the results clearly show that voters are waking up to the fact that the state has no idea how to spend money properly and that’s a good sign.

The closeness of this vote may show that expected November propositions – the gut Prop 47 measure to make crime illegal gain and the tax limitation measure – could have a better chance at passing.

Los Angeles County has finished counting votes and current District Attorney George Gascon topped the primary field with 25% of the vote and Nathan Hochman finishing second with about 16%.

How, you may be asking, can one-in-four county residents vote for Gascon?  The power of the incumbency and rabid support on the progressive/socialist left make that possible.

And in November Gascon’s share of the vote will increase – the two other progressives got about 9%, giving Gascon a theoretical base of about one-third, maybe up to about 40%.

On the flip side, that means that the definitely anti-Gascon vote was a bit over 60%, very much in line with his dismal favorability/unfavorably poll rating.  And that means that Hochman is already in a good place, November-wise.

“The voters of Los Angeles County spoke loud and clear on March 5: Gascon’s extreme, pro-criminal policies have failed and the people want a new District Attorney who will advocate for crime victims and strive every day to keep them safe,” Hochman said. “The Golden Age of Criminals is coming to an end. Enough is Enough.”

Hochman also pointed to other polls that show that 59% of likely Los Angeles County voters feel less safe than they did before Gascon was elected, while only 9% feel safer.

“Violent crime and property crime have increased every year Gascon has been in office compared to 2020, the year he was elected. And crime is rising again this year,” Hochman said. “It’s no wonder the public feels unsafe and voters are advocating for change. When I’m elected, I will empower my prosecutors to pursue justice based on two things – the facts and the law – and not on an extreme political agenda.”

And Hochman’s internal poll taken just before the primary showed him beating Gascon handily, with the numbers roughly in the range as those above.

In 2020, Gascon slipped through the primary to set up his faceoff with then-DA Jackie Lacey who came in a comfortable first in the primary.  After the primary, the LA power structure – for whatever reason – ditched Lacey and jumped on the social/criminal justice Gascon bandwagon, millions poured in from progressive PACs, and Gascon beat Lacey.

It can be expected that Gascon will get a massive infusion of cash this time again, but Hochman’s impressive primary finances have already shown he can raise – and wisely spend – big money himself and will definitely compete with Gascon when it comes to campaign money.

Sadly, LA city Councilwoman and Democratic Socialists of America maven Nithiya Raman has avoided a runoff, getting 50.67% of the vote in the primary.  That translates to a tiny 437 vote margin, all gained in the late-counted “vote by mail” ballot category.

A third LA county number is also interesting.  In the Prop. 1 contest, LA – which typically delivers large left/progressive margins – only went 54% to 46% in favor.

The overall turnout was about 29% and that can expect to about double come the fall, considering there is some presidential election thing on the ballot as well.

In that race, President Joe Biden – if he is still upright and still a candidate – will almost certainly win the state as Donald Trump is not terribly well liked in California.  But one should not expect to see the massive win in 2020 repeated – while there are no recent “six way” race polls, RFK Jr., Green Party Jill Stein, Cornel West, and the as yet to be finalized Libertarian candidate will each draw significant numbers, with most of them coming from Biden’s total in November.

And it’s not even April.