Home>Articles>New Poll Finds Larry Elder In Commanding Lead of Recall Candidates, Newsom Approval Slipping Once Again
Gavin Newsom
CA Gov. Gavin Newsom. (Photo: Kevin Sanders for California Globe)

New Poll Finds Larry Elder In Commanding Lead of Recall Candidates, Newsom Approval Slipping Once Again

‘The drought, homelessness, wildfires raging, businesses leaving, and increased crime are eating away at the patience of many people on the fence’

By Evan Symon, July 22, 2021 5:41 pm

A new Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll released on Thursday reports that Governor Gavin Newsom is rapidly losing ground in the recall election, while radio host Larry Elder has taken a commanding lead among all recall candidates.

Press play to hear a narrated version of this story, presented by AudioHopper.

According to the poll, which was conducted based on a sampling of 1,000 registered voters in California on a 2.9% margin of error, Governor Newsom now only has about 48% of voters wanting to keep him in office, as compared to 43% of voters willing to vote for his recall. 9% of voters remain undecided.

Contrasted with the May UC Berkeley survey that found that 49% of voters wanted to keep him in office versus 36% wanting to recall him, the new Emerson poll has shown that not only has Newsom lost ground to recall supporters during late Spring and early Summer, but he has also lost a little support.

The July poll also found that Newsom’s popularity has gone down significantly since May, dipping below the 50% mark for the first time since February. Newsom currently sits at a 49% approval rating, down from 52% two months ago. His disapproval rating has also gone up to 42%, closely mirroring the recall poll percentages.

Radio host Larry Elder (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

When asked about rating the Governor on a wide range of topics from his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic to homelessness, the highest percentage chosen for each one by voters was “poor,” the lowest rating possible. In particular, his handling of the homelessness crisis was met with the strongest response, with a whopping 52% of voters ranking his performance as poor, and only 25% saying fair, 16% good and only 7% excellent.

As for recall candidates, radio personality Larry Elder stormed ahead of the polling with 16%, beating out second-place finishers, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and 2018 Gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who both scored a respective 6% of the vote, both down from higher percentages scored in the May Berkeley poll when there were fewer candidates to choose from. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R- Rocklin) and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner came in a distant 3rd, tied with 4% each.

53% of voters, about equal to Newsom’s approval percentage of voters, said that they remained undecided.

Elder, who had a brief court battle with Secretary of State Shirley Weber this week over being allowed on the ballot, is now widely seen as the frontrunner.

Finally, the GOP had further good news in the poll when a question asked whether voters would vote for Newsom in the 2022 election, came back with a result of 42% in favor reelecting Newsom and 58% in favor of someone new.

The turning tide against Newsom

“Despite Newsom ending the lockdown, giving everyone $600 stimulus checks, reopening the state, and and drastically reducing COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the year, Newsom is on the downswing once again,” said former lobbyist Harry Schultz to the Globe on Thursday. “The recall movement hasn’t had to pound his COVID-19 lockdowns and the French Laundry incident at all. The drought issue, the homeless issue, the wildfires raging, the state losing a lot of businesses, and the increased crime are eating away at the patience of many people on the fence.”

“The Newsom team also overestimated just how many people would come out to support him. This isn’t like 2018 where he has a huge force behind him. This is a recall election that isn’t getting nearly as much press behind it as the last one did in 2003. So, right now, Republican and right-leaning voters all know about this, and while many Democrats do, a lot of more “casual” Democratic voters don’t. Or at least not yet. So all of these factors are now making a recall more and more possible. For months people have been saying just how vulnerable he is. It’s really beginning to show that now.”

“I’ll grant him that handling the COVID crisis would have been tough for anyone. Most voters regardless of party would say so. But he should be surging right back in the polls now with California open again. But it just isn’t happening?”

“Even if he does manage to win in September, right now it’s pretty obvious that he is screwed next year, so each party really needs to be careful on who they pick.”

“With Newsom this close now, with the margin of error added, I’m sure the Democrats are kicking themselves by not selecting a ‘just in case’ Democratic candidate now. At the end of the year, it is now very possible that we will have the first black Governor, and a conservative one at that. Who would have thought of that a year ago?”

Other recall election polls are expected in the next few months in the lead up to the September 14th recall election.

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44 thoughts on “New Poll Finds Larry Elder In Commanding Lead of Recall Candidates, Newsom Approval Slipping Once Again

  1. This statement is misleading – “53% of voters, about equal to Newsom’s approval percentage of voters, said that they remained undecided.” The is no reason to assume or imply that the ones who are undecided are also the ones who currently approve of Newsom. Are they undecided about the Newsom recall or undecided about which candidate they would support as a replacement?

    1. Great point Raymond, I think there is a lot of grey area around the two questions. I don’t think a lot of people realize the MAIN question is do you wish to recall Gavin! There is no question number 2 if number 1 doesn’t pass. Question number 2 being who do you wish to replace this tyrant!

    2. He’s going to use the ALL MAIL IN ballots to fraud his way back into office. I hope I’m wrong, but don’t think I am.

      1. The ONLY way Newsom can beat this recall is by fraud. It’s already in the works, be sure of it… I’ve seen the BS campaign ad’s and grossly inflated lies about the recall cost. It’s a flat out lie.. What they ARE NOT telling you is in a recent Reuters Poll Democrats and Independents at 59% were the largest percentage who signed the recall petition to remove Newsom Republicans came in at only 11% (no doubt because they feel California is already a lost cause so why bother) and 30% were undecided or unsure how to vote on the recall. Larry Elder is a Libertarian running on the Republican ticket simply because there is no strong Libertarian presence in California. Hence the total BS name “Republican Recall” coined by those who own Newsom’s worthless butt, Big tech, special interest groups and the teachers unions. I’m a John Kennedy democrat but I no longer recognize today’s Demofascist party and I cannot support their hard Left bordering on fascist efforts. I voted for Larry Elder. If Newsom is not recalled? This state will be locked down again in retaliation within days with the coming Flu season being the excuse. Bank on it. Question everything, resist remember your Constitutional rights. They can’t arrest us all.

  2. All Newsom has is campaign ads that call it a “republican” recall. This is not about unhappy republicans. This is about unhappy Californians! He can’t construct a campaign around his success! Because there are none, he only knows to attack as a political party issue. I want to be in the crowd when he has to pack his bags and leave our, yes OUR house!

    1. Right again, Stacy. The Newsom cabal wants to say that, to discredit the GRASSROOTS recall comprised of ALL parties and non-partisans including disaffected Democrats, Republicans, Independents, Non-affiliated and Others. This is why the CaGOP should NOT endorse a particular Republican candidate.

  3. In Newsome’s bag of tricks:
    – 1.8 MILLION more registered voters than what are truly valid voters
    – Private and Public Union goons and lemmings
    – Systemic Corrupt Election Officials and Workers
    I am voting to recall Newsom. I will be voting for Larry Elder; Kevin Kiley is my second choice. The others are RINOs or have no chance of improving California.
    If Newsom (an abject failure) survives the recall, it will only be because California Elections are corrupt and beyond repair.

  4. Each county is NOW hiring temporary employees to work this election. Riverside County is hiring 900.

    Now is your chance to be part of making certain it is done correctly.

  5. Cultural anthropologist Max Gluckman wrote a treatise about “Rituals of Rebellion” wherein some cultures have socially accepted moments when they are allowed to protest against their leader. While some anthropologists have criticized Gluckman’s theory, it may be that the recall is becoming our acceptable ritual of rebellion. I mention this because the average voter may have a sense of rebellion when deciding whether to recall Newsom. The thought process would be something like this: “I’m just a regular person working more than 40 hours a week and barely making ends meet. I’ll likely never be anything more than this, but I can cast a vote to dethrone this arrogant, narcissistic frat boy who never worked a real job in his life .”

    1. Agree 100%, Fed Up. We need to REASSURE the SANCTITY of the vote. As mentioned above, let’s get OUR people into every aspect of the upcoming recall – VOLUNTEER.

  6. Unfortunately, I saw an article that mentions that Newsom is on the World Economic Forum’s “Favored list” of younger power players , along with the Google & Facebook crew , which makes me concerned that these clandestine power players who seem to be behind the plandemic power play might be pulling more nefarious levers…
    Remember, the same voting systems are in place in California that were used in November 2020….
    Be vigilant…. Crooks run this state…

    1. Here’s an even MORE ominous tidbit, CriticalDfence9. George Soros and Bill Gates have entered into a joint venture to purchase a company that makes COVID19 tests.

      1. Raymond, this equates to endless positive test results, endless new “variants”, endless new “necessary” vaccines and endless control.

        1. The tests are to harvest your DNA so that the Chinese can develop race specific diseases for the bio weapons program. A Chinese doctor defected and spilled the beans.

          Gates/Soros and the whole Great Reset crowd plan on dishing out death via mandatory vaccines tailored to the characteristics they hope to eliminate.

          1. CW, a Chinese doctor too? I wouldn’t doubt it. The minister of state security defected in January from Hong Kong with his daughter. Highest official ever to defect. He’s being debriefed by our military intelligence (DIA). When the meeting with the Chinese took place in Alaska, it’s been reported that they demanded that we return him. But at that time, I guess Blinken didn’t know we had him, luckily. The minister brought gigabytes of data with him – including information about the bio-weapons program.

    2. No doubt the powers that be of the World Economic Forum favor Gruesome Newsom to advance their plans. He proved himself during the pandemic.

      Never forget the extended lock downs, closing of small businesses, churches and schools, sending covid patients back into nursing homes, BYD mask deal, release of felons onto our streets, endless emergency powers!

      1. Exactly, Cali Girl. Plus the $31 BILLION EDD scandal and, underlying all of this COVID nonsense, a very expensive, mask-less, intimate, moist-breathed, air-kissy alcohol-ridden indoor dinner (see the $12K bar bill) last November at the French Laundry which PROVED that he and his partners in crime DID NOT themselves BELIEVE what they were so casually ordering for the entire State of California. You know, the people they think of as their tax-paying, order-following slaves.
        Pretty confident in saying we’re ALL sick to death of this. Vote YES to RECALL GAVIN GRUESOME!

  7. I offer the only reason we are not under another complete lockdown with mandated vaccine passports is the recall. But in the meantime as he waits hoping to beat it, open borders will continue to invest and infect where upon he can blame the non-vaccinated (us not them) and shut it all down again.

    1. Denise, you are correct!
      Us vs Them, keeps us divided.

      If they were truly concerned about the spread of the Rona the southern border would be closed. Let’s not kid ourselves people from around the world are pouring in. Interesting, how it is closed to U.S. citizens unless it is considered necessary travel????

  8. Unnecessary Covid Lockdowns , recommending masking while chewing food between bites, poor forest management, poor water management , not solving homeless problem, high taxes, excessive regulations, French Laundry, open borders, high crime, high gas prices, sanctuary state, businesses fleeing, insurance companies not writing home insurance. Wake up Democrats and Independents and vote yes on first question that he should be recalled. Give Larry Elder a chance to fix the mess.

    1. There are 20% of Democrats who are voting for the recall or leaning towards it. And while they hate the masking indoors, mishandling of homelessness, EDD, water and wildfires, they’re not sympathetic to claims of “open borders” and sanctuary cities that are talked by Republicans.

  9. I have lived here in CA for two years. I am shocked by the way this beautiful state is run. I will vote for Elders.

  10. I will not vote for loser rinos!!! The California GOP needs to back Larry Elder with all it’s might if they want to take back our once-golden state. Listening to Elder over the years has convinced me he knows the policies, knows how to defend his position, and is not just another celebrity or pretty face. New motto: “If you are not for Larry Elder, you must be a racist”. 😉

  11. My vote is the recall of Newsom , because of what California has become: sanctuary, homelessness, high taxation, speed-train fiasco, no fire prevention , water preserves/dams, and anything else I forgot‼️‼️‼️

  12. go fuck yourself Marrick Garland no wonder you where never elected! You are a puppet to the left what an failure as a human being! you should be removed!

  13. what you are doing with our america (not yours) immigration, covid and covering for Joe and Hunter Biden we all know what is going on! you creep! remove Marrick Garland he is a disgrace of a man (only a puppet) must need the money to ruin our beautiful AMERICA!

  14. California unemployment has been much higher than the National average for years. That’s enough for me. First the governor. Then the legislature. I stand with the Conservative … Larry Elder.

  15. At this point in time, it is a serious mistake for the Republican Party to refuse to endorse a candidate in the Recall Election. This will only divide votes among the Conservative candidates, and ensure Newsom’s victory. They should put their active endorsement behind the leading Conservative candidate. Strategy, not Chaos!

  16. Larry Elder must win, If he doesn’t it is because of more fraud from the democrats, These people in high places are not making the right decisions, all they care about is themselves and their families. They are going to ruin this country , they don’t even care about the constitution. It is way way outta hand. Only reason no one contested previous election , they didn’t want to lose their high paying jobs. just go with the flow. Jesus we are in trouble. It will come down to patriots to save this mess. We need to fill every possible political position with like minded people. and fast. From local to national.

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