New Poll: Former SF Mayor Mark Farrell Continues Narrow Lead In Mayoral Race

According to a new FM3 poll released on Tuesday,  former San Francisco Mayor Mark Farrell continues to hold a narrow lead over San Francisco Mayor London Breed in first choice ranked voting, 20% to 19%, with Tipping Point Community CEO Daniel Lurie coming in third with 17%.

Previous polls have shown a close race between Farrell and Breed. In the first poll released in February, Farrell was up by two points with 20% against Breed’s 18%, followed by Lurie with 16% and Supervisor Ahsha Safai with 8%.However, the addition of San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin entering the race in April shook things up. Despite sinking in popularity polls, the controversial Peskin allowed Breed to move up in the next Mayoral polls.

In May, the previous FM3 poll found that, in a ranked-choice vote, Breed would lead with 21%, followed by 16% for both Farrell and Lurie, 12% for Peskin and 7% for Safai. With Undecided votes not being an option, Breed only rose higher, with 29% of the vote, ahead of Lurie and Farrell with 23% of the vote, 16% for Peskin and 9% for Safai. In the final one-on-one ranked choice vote, Breed held with a narrow 51%-49% lead over Farrell.

However, Breed only continued to tumble down in the polls in the next several weeks. Last week, an Impact Research poll found that Farrell was up with 23% of the vote, followed by Breed with 21%, Lurie with 20%, Peskin with 17% and Safai with 4%. While a debate came shortly afterwards, FM3’s newest polling didn’t reflect any changes in voter support as the poll was taken around the time of the debate. Nevertheless it did show a few subtle changes in support.

According to the latest poll, Farrell is leading first choice voting with 20%, followed by Breed with 19%, Lurie with 17%, Peskin with 12%, and Safai with 4%. For second choice, Lurie led with 17%, followed by Farrell with 12%, Safai with 10%, Breed with 8%, and Peskin with 7%. Finally, at third choice, Lurie had 10%, Breed with 8%, Farrell and Safai with 7%, and Peskin with 5%. When fully simulated, both Farrell and Breed had enough support to make it to the final round, with Farrell ultimately having more support with 55% to 45%.

A new poll released yesterday has us in 1st place & beating Mayor Breed 55% to 45% in ranked-choice voting.

It speaks volumes that no other campaign has released their polling.

It's a tight race & we can't take anything for granted – get involved: https://t.co/1ni0vbqg04 pic.twitter.com/GVynrfUgwd

— Mark Farrell (@MarkFarrellSF) June 25, 2024

In the question of favorability and recognition, Lurie, Farrell, and Breed came in the top three, with Lurie leading with 34% favorability, and Breed and Farrell with 33%. However, when the question of unfavorability came forward, there was a huge gap. Lurie had only 22% unfavorability and Farrell 24% unfavorability, with around 25% of people polled not knowing enough to make a decision. But for Breed, she had a whopping 60% unfavorability.

Finally, most voters in San Francisco think the city is on the wrong track with 28% saying the city is going in the right direction, 61% saying it is on the wrong track, and 11% not knowing. Overall, Farrell holds a close edge in the race over Lurie and Breed, with all three being within the margin of error of each other.

Farrell campaign Manager Jade Tu said on Tuesday, “The poll just released tracks with all of the polling that we have seen – we are in first place and winning the election if held today by beating Mayor Breed in the final round of ranked-choice voting. It speaks volumes that our opponents, or groups supporting our opponents, have not released any of the polling they have done in the last few months.”

Others noted on Tuesday that Farrell is remaining surprisingly strong even with Lurie continuing to rise in the polls.

“Every new poll that comes out is showing Breed in a worse and worse light,” said political advisor Sharon Lee to the Globe on Tuesday. “Farrell and Lurie, meanwhile, have shown resiliency and growth. People like Farrell because he had a much more successful tenure as Mayor and has the political experience, and Lurie because he is something of an outsider in the race with strong city ties. Breed, as we’ve seen in polls, is being blamed for a lot of the city’s problems, with some of her policies and actions being directly tied to the city stumbling since she came into office.

“This is still a close race, and Breed does have her supporters. She and Lurie are really close to Farrell in polling. Safai is likely out already and Peskin may have an outside chance, but he has proven to be too far left even for many in the city.

“Surprisingly, Republicans in San Francisco, as well as those leaning to the right, may hold the key. Democrats and liberals are really split on support, and Republican voters, rather than choose to not vote like previous elections, are choosing Lurie and Farrell. The Standard pointed this out the other day. They are a minority of voters in the town, but with such a split vote, we have seen them supporting the two. And look where they are. They’re beating Breed.

“Breed has flat out ignored those to the right, and it is coming back to bite her now. Lurie and Farrell are still very much Democrats. I mean, Farrell was behind the last gun store in the city leaving. But compared to Breed and Peskin, they are far more tolerable to conservatives and moderates. Especially on issues like crime and the economy. These recent polls have proven that you should never count out conservatives, even in the most liberal city in the country.”

More San Francisco Mayoral polls are likely to come out soon.