New USC/Poly Poll Finds Tight Congressional Races Across California

A new USC/California State University, Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona poll was released this week, showing that the six tightest congressional races in the state are all still too close to call, as all six are currently within the margin of error.

California is one of a handful of states considered to be the key to which party has control of the House come 2025. And with so many either open races or races with incumbents facing strong challengers, California could be that critical state. Both national parties are throwing money at candidates in each close race. Most of the races have had little to no polling done so far. But the USC/Cal Poly poll released on Tuesday showed just about where things are. Let’s break it down by district:

13th Congressional District

The 13th Congressional district spans the San Joaquin Valley, covering, all of Merced County, most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin Counties. The current Congressman in John Duarte (R-CA), a Stockton area farmer and businessman  who beat former Congressman Adam Gray by around 500 votes in 2022. The total was so close that it officially wasn’t called until late November. Nonetheless, Duarte won.

This year, his challenger is Gray once again, still feeling the sting of the loss from two years ago. The race this year is once again tight, with every election prediction hub labeling it as a toss-up. And, before this week, no real polls had come out.

According to the USC/Poly poll, Gray has a narrow 46% to 45% lead with a 9% undecided vote and 5.6% margin of error. However, the race is still very close, with Gray only coming out in front in recent weeks thanks to the Kamala Harris bump. With well over a month remaining, and Duarte with more money in the tank than Gray, the 13th, like many races on this list, will likely be a photo finish.

22nd Congressional District

Up next is the 22nd District. Stretching across the San Joaquin Valley, it includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. In terms of cities, about half of Bakersfield is in there. Currently the district is headed up by David Valadao (R-CA). Since 2013, the former 21st District/current 22nd District covering the Southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, has seen Congressman Valadao win, lose, then win the district again despite a growing Democratic advantage. Valadao managed to hold onto office until the 2018 ballot harvesting blue wave mid-terms, when Democrat T.J. Cox won by roughly 900 votes, 50.4% to 49.6%. However, two years later, a Twitter scandal and the revelation that Cox had unpaid taxes swung the election back to Valadao – this time with almost 2,000 votes a difference.

Two years after that, in 2022, redistricting pushed the district more in favor of Democrats, with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) coming in as the heavy favorite over Valadao. According to some polls, he was ahead by as much as 8 points. But Valadao’s tough campaign, as well as Salas making some questionable political moves, swung the race towards Valadao. Valadao ended up winning by just over 3,000 votes, 51.5% to 48.5%.

Salas is once again the main challenger, coming out of the political grave yet again. And once again it has been close. Polls have been all over the map. Most have shown Valadao narrowly winning. However, one of the more recent ones has Salas winning the seat.

The USC/Poly poll has Salas with a three point lead, 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided and the usual margin of error. However, it should be noted that the Harris bump rocked polling, with Valadao up 6 points only a month ago. Valadao has more money and the incumbency to his name, with Salas banking on more Democrats being in the district. Like the 13th, this race is still anybody’s.

27th Congressional District

The 27th district covers Northwest L.A. County, including suburbs like Santa Clarita and the desert suburbs like Lancaster and Palmdale on the other side of Angeles National Forest. Mike Garcia has headed up the District since 2020, and for the last 3 elections (Special 2020, 2020, and 2022) managed to beat out Democrat Christy Smith. Finally getting the hint that she is unelectable, Smith decided not to run this year, with former NASA chief of staff and former CEO of Virgin Galactic George Whitesides running instead.

Whitesides has managed to stay a few points ahead of Garcia all throughout the campaign. Whitesides also has more money on Garcia and an aerospace background that has been unique amongst recent candidates.

In the USC/Poly poll, Whitesides was up by two points, 48% to 46% with 6% undecided. However, this is actually good news for Garcia. Earlier polls had Whitesides up by 3 points or more, showing that the Harris bump did effectively nothing for him, and that at most, it masked more people heading towards Garcia’s direction. Also not helping are Whitesides’ constant ads in the L.A. market, which have actually began turning people away from him.

41st Congressional District

The Riverside County district is big, going from the outer banks of the Inland Empire across the desert to the outskirts of Indio, covering cities like Palm Springs along the way. Congressman Ken Calvert (R-CA) is the incumbent and has been in office since 1993. While the area was initially a lock for the GOP, population shifts caused things to shift to the center in recent years. Last year, Calvert won, but the results took several days to tabulate as things were so close.

Seeing a possible in, Democrats went all in on the District this year, putting up attorney Will Rollins, who lost to Calvert only 2 years ago. Rollins not only has a money advantage, but recent polls have had him several points over Calvert, albeit with double digit undecided numbers.

The USC/Poly poll showed a big shift however. As the Harris bump fades, the district, which still has more GOP voters than Democrats, has begun to move back to Calvert. According to the poll, Calvert is now up 48%-47% with 5% undecided. What had been a Rollins lead is now him suddenly in second place. Calvert has made late charges before in races, and Rollins is also looking like what he did last year as well: quick out of the gate but fades in the stretch.

45th Congressional District

The 45th District, which covers both Los Angeles County and Orange County, forms a horseshoe around Anaheim from the west. Current incumbent Michelle Steel (R-CA) has been in office since 2021, winning huge elections in 2020 and 2022 that both flipped the district and showed she could still with with district realignment respectively.

Democrats have been wanting this district back for four years, and this year, put up Attorney Derek Tran. Polling initially had Steel out by a few points. But the Harris run last month flipped things, with Steel now behind Tran by a few points in polls.

The USC/Poly poll confirmed this, with Tran narrowly ahead of Steel 48% to 46% with 5% undecided. However, with Steel fully funded, well over a month left, and the Harris bump fading, Steel has been a lot more aggressive. She has come back from behind before. And with his law career now suddenly becoming more and more of a liability. Steel can very much play catch up.

47th Congressional District

And now it’s time for everybody’s favorite District this election: the 47th. Covering lower Orange County, the current member of Congress is Katie Porter (D-CA). Why isn’t she running this year? Well, she put all her chips in the U.S. Senate primary in March, came in a distant third, went nuts saying that the race was rigged, and ended her political career spectacularly at least for the next few years.

The GOP candidate this year is Scott Baugh, who nearly defeated Porter in 2022. For the Democrats is Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County). This has been the wonkiest race this year. Both candidates have had highs and lows. For example, Min got a DUI last year, something that has really hurt him this election cycle. And polls have shown this out: Baugh has had a constant 1-2 point lead over Min all summer. Even that Harris bump did nothing.

And Tuesday’s poll showed an even bigger surprise: Baugh is now up by 3 points, 49% to 46% with 5% undecided. Unless Min gets a miracle in the next month, Baugh will likely cruise to victory. However, don’t expect either side to relent. Like the others, this will go down to the bitter end.

What the races now come down to is who exactly turns out.

“A strong turnout for Democrats at the top of the ticket could knock out several of the Republican incumbents,” said Christian Grose, professor of political science and international relations and public policy at USC. “California Democratic House candidates have the wind at their back, but the real question is whether Democratic voter excitement will knock up against a red wall of California Republican incumbents. As goes California’s congressional districts, so goes control of the U.S. Congress.”

Alex Guzman, a Central California pollster, added to the Globe on Wednesday that “Latino turnout will be big, as will if more people come out for Harris or Trump, then proceed to vote down ballot. Many voters in California will just vote for Harris then turn the ballot in, and not even bother with the down ballot. And look how many are still undecided. No wonder the margins of error are so high.”

More Congressional polls are expected to come out in the next month.