Overwhelming Migrant Ingress Shifts To California

The presumptive Democrat and Republican presidential candidates for the 2024 election headed to the southern border last week to focus on immigration. And why shouldn’t they? While in most national elections the economy is often cited as the most important concern among voters, Illegal immigration is now moving up the list to rival persistent inflation and other economic issues for the top spot.

Major polling institutions such as  Gallup, ABC News, Newsweek, Harris, and Monmouth University, to name just a few, list immigration at or near the top of the list as a major concern and motivator for U.S. voters. The Monmouth Poll in particular was telling as it related that more than 8 in 10 Americans see illegal immigration as either a very serious (61%) or somewhat serious (23%) problem. This is a record high level of concern and prioritization according to Monmouth. Additionally, the Monmouth Poll indicated that for the first time, more than half of Americans (53%) are in favor of building an expansive wall all along the U.S. border with Mexico. Even during the Trump Presidency, support for building a wall never rose higher than 44% and at one time languished at a low of 35%.

So, incumbent Democrat Joe Biden and his Republican challenger former President Donald Trump headed south for dueling visits and press conferences at the southern border on the very same day. Both campaigns chose Texas—Biden in Brownsville, and Trump in Eagle Pass to focus on immigration issues and the politics involved. Biden challenged his Republican adversary to lobby his party colleagues in Congress to agree on a border deal that would ostensibly beef up our capacity to protect our border and more efficiently process the hundreds of thousands seeking asylum in the United States. Trump, on the other hand, laid the blame for our illegal immigration crisis at the feet of Biden, who’s executive orders at the very beginning of his administration reversed course on Trump’s border protection initiatives. And with purposeful inaction since, the Biden administration has allowed the illegal immigration crisis to fester and grow to unprecedented levels.

Regardless of the politics of the two campaigns pointing fingers of blame at each other, one must ask:

“Why go to Texas when recent data indicates that the preponderance of migrant entry into the U.S. is now elsewhere?” 

In addition to public sentiment shifting on illegal immigration, the points of entry appear to be shifting as well—to the west where the Arizona and California borders are now the major points of entry for migrants seeking asylum and those breaching our border illegally. Migrant arrests are up precipitously at the Arizona and California borders with Mexico over this time last year while those same numbers have plummeted on the Texas border. 

Border Patrol figures show that in the areas of El Paso and Del Rio Texas, migrant arrests numbered 18,000 in January which is a 50% drop off from the same month last year. At the same time, there were 25,000 arrests of those attempting to enter the country illegally through the San Diego area of entry which is a 60% increase over last year. Arizona found an even higher increase measuring 150% over this time last year. 

There is much speculation as to why there has been such a dramatic shift in illegal entry into the U.S. and much of it is rooted in political biases. Yet, authorities have listed any number of reasons for the change in attempted entry routes including changing weather patterns within central America, Mexico, and southern American States, although it is admitted that there is no way that weather would dictate the magnitude of such a turn.

Others point to stepped enforcement outside the U.S. in countries such as Mexico, Panama, and Columbia which has necessitated a change in migrant travel routes. Additionally, infighting among Mexican Cartels who are complicit in human smuggling has been identified as a reason for the changing pattern of northward migration.

It is reasonable to point out that not all illegal border crossings have their origins in Latin America. A large bump in illegal border crossings originates from Asia and Africa. Those immigrants have the ability to fly directly to Tijuana, Mexico, just across the border from San Diego before attempting a border crossing.

The most glaring probability for the shift in migration routes is changing policies and approach to illegal immigration in the individual states. Texas, under Governor Greg Abbott (R) boasts that Operation Lone Star, which has deployed thousands of police officers and National Guard troops to the state’s southern border to quell the migrant surge is working. Texas’ controversial initiative to stretch razor wire along and within the Rio Grande river has no doubt discouraged those migrants who would otherwise choose Texas as their point of ingress.

Just last month, Texas lost a suit before the U.S. Supreme Court which, by a slim 5-4 vote, ruled that Federal Border Control officers could remove that razor wire. Another legal battle is brewing as Texas’ new law that makes illegal immigration a state crime allowing police officers to arrest those crossing the border illegally is being challenged and will be heard in a Federal District Court this week.

Even with the prospect of judicial losses, Texas continues to be proactive in attempting to protect its borders and the message to potential illegal immigrants is out there. Experts in the field acknowledge that the hordes of migrants traveling northward are well connected to news events in the U.S. as most have smart phones and are fully aware of which areas in the United States might be most conducive to a border crossing. Evidently, Texas, by virtue of its hardened policies, is becoming less attractive as a point of ingress.

By contrast Arizona and California, both led by Democrat governors seem to be taking a different approach. In California, a spokesperson for Governor Gavin Newsom wrote:

“In the absence of any political courage from the Republican Party, California has once again stepped up — making historic investments and serving as a model of partnership for a safe and humane border.”

To that end, California has indeed stepped it up. In San Diego, the atmosphere has certainly been more hospitable compared to Texas. The San Diego Immigrant Welcome Center which opened in October offered immigrants food, free Wi-Fi, and assistance in obtaining transportation and shelter. The center served over 80,000 migrants but was forced to close early on Thursday of last week as it simply could not handle the significant increase in border crossings that are now occurring. 

As for Biden’s visit and photo-op in Brownsville, the one thing that was certainly missing was a throng of migrants. They just aren’t there anymore. One might suspect that the Biden political campaign’s choice of Brownsville was intentional as if to demonstrate that as far as illegal immigration goes—an issue that is at the top of the list hamstringing his re-election effort—things ain’t so bad. That undoubtedly is a tough sell at this point.

Trump’s campaign obviously could have chosen Southern California or even Arizona as a venue to highlight the escalating border crossing crisis as he would be certain to find those aforementioned throngs of migrants. Yet, his campaign understandably chose Texas where a photo-op with tough-on-illegal immigration Governor Greg Abbott was undoubtedly evaluated as the better chance to score political points.