Prop. 1 Battle Rages On As Final Votes Are Counted, and Disqualified Ballots Grow

A yea or nay of Proposition 1 remains unanswered on Wednesday. The vote tally over the initiative remains close, with questions of disqualified ballots now likely to drag a final vote count into the next several weeks.

Proposition 1, if passed, would expand the state’s mental health infrastructure on a $6.4 billion bond. Propped up by Governor Newsom last year and into 2024, Prop 1 will not only enact the new bond to build 10,000 beds for those undergoing mental health and addiction treatment and create housing for veterans, but it will also redirect funding from a previous proposition.

The redirected funding, around $4 billion comes from Proposition 63, also known as the Mental Health Services Act. Passed by a narrow margin of 53%-47% in 2004, Prop. 63 instituted a millionaire’s tax, or a surcharge of 1 percent on the portion of a taxpayer’s taxable income that exceeds $1 million, that went into mental health services. Under Prop. 1, new requirements on spending would be put in, which would redirect funding to housing and treatment for the most severely affected people with mental and addiction issues.

Only a few months ago, Proposition 1 seemed like it was going to pass. Polls showed it to be slightly up at the beginning of the year. But it soon began to trend downward as a growing number of people and groups found problems with it. In particular, the ACLU, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the League of Women Voters of California and Mental Health America in California found that Prop. 1 will likely cost taxpayers $12 billion over the next three years as it is paid off and would siphon money from needed homeless projects.

Prop. 1 results come in

Newsom, alarmed at the sudden closeness of the vote, began a huge statewide ad blitz to push his pet proposition. However, a growing red wave of voters was largely keeping up with any gains Newsom saw. Spurred by the Republican Primary, the U.S. Senate Primary, and the worry that a “yes” vote on Prop 1 was a vote for Newsom in the future, polls in the last few weeks showed that voters were split.

Initial results overnight showed that the “yes” votes were up by .5%. However, updates later into the week showed that the vote was now much closer, with less than 25,000 votes separating the two with only 51% of votes counted – 1,958,171 for the proposition and 1,936,817 against it. Last week, the race was shown to be just as close, with 3,371,988, or 50.17%, in favor and 3,348,945, or 49.83%, against.

The numbers slightly shifted on Wednesday. According to the latest total, the yea vote has 3,600,768, or 50.21%, while the nay vote has 3,571,206, or 49.79%. Currently, over 95% of ballots are in. However, the areas where they are not in could hold the key to where the final initial total could wind up. As of Wednesday, Mendocino County has only 55% of the vote in, but has been in favor of the Proposition by a 54%-46% margin. Conversely 65% of Lake County votes have been handed in, with an inverse 46%-54% margin. The biggest county that still has at least 5% of voted to count, San Luis Obispo County, also has only 46% in favor compared to 54% opposed.

Governor Gavin Newsom, who has delayed his State of the State speech over the passage not being called yet, has been fighting tooth and nail to take a second look at disqualified ballots in the hopes of boosting the yea vote. In comparison, the opposition group, Californians Against Prop 1, withdrew their concession that they had made last week, vowing to get any disqualified ballots from their side.

“Opponents of Prop. 1, looking at a razor-thin margin of votes now favoring the measure (20,000 out of 7.5 million cast), announced today that they are reviving their campaign, almost two weeks after voting concluded,” said the group in a statement this week. “Californians Against Prop. 1 will join Gov. Gavin Newsom in battling to get some mail ballots counted, after they were rejected over signature mismatches and other issues.”

“Politico reported Friday that the governor is recruiting people to the labor-intensive job of contacting Democratic-registered voters who had their mail ballots disqualified. The pricey effort appears to include mailers, phone banks and canvassing efforts targeting up to 30,000 voters whose ballots were rejected.”

“By getting some of those Democratic voters to complete new paperwork and get their ballots counted, the governor’s team hopes to “find” more votes in favor of Prop. 1, which enjoyed majority support among Democrats in some polling.”

CHECK YOUR BALLOT. Deadlines to fix signature issues are imminent (e.g., Orange County's is in 44 hours at 5 p.m. this Wednesday, March 20). The form is simple and counties accept it via email. Find your county's form here! https://t.co/qdMmXZOgsy (Reposted to correct the date.) https://t.co/gNM4SQ3mxp

— Californians Against Proposition 1 (@prop1no) March 19, 2024

Californians Against Prop. 1 Director Paul Simmons added, “The governor’s effort to save Prop. 1 has a sleazy echo of Bush versus Gore in Florida in 2000. It’s an attempt to manipulate the final vote count by harvesting the votes of only some partisans in certain areas.”

“We believe all ballots should be counted. We know that many Democrats voted against Prop. 1, so the governor’s effort is no slam dunk. If you’re a Republican or independent, we want you to know that your ballot might make the difference in this election. But the governor won’t help you. We will. If your ballot was rejected, don’t ignore the notice. Fix it. We can help. Don’t let this governor win the election with shady tactics.”

Experts told the Globe on Wednesday that a final winner will likely not be named for awhile still, as the close vote and disqualified ballot issues are still in full force.

“When someone recants their concession, you know things are going to get screwy,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “This means getting every ballot possible in and recounts and so much more. And not all the votes yet have even been counted. Newsom is pretty flustered that the race hasn’t been called yet, and he thought going after disqualified ballots would bring this around sooner. He didn’t expect the group that conceded to do the same. He doesn’t like that kind of rejection.”

Final tallies of the Prop 1 vote are to come out in the coming weeks.