Return to First Principles to Fix the Golden State

There’s a desire for change in the state of California. Unfortunately, California’s problems don’t stay in California. When families and employers feel priced out, they move—and their paychecks and expectations move with them. States like Texas and Tennessee have welcomed that growth, but it also fuels a concern you hear across red America: “Don’t turn our state into the one you just left.” The smarter solution isn’t to blame transplants. It’s to fix California so fewer people feel forced to leave.

The outflow is real. California Department of Finance estimates net domestic migration losses of about 140,000 people in 2023–2024, worsening to about 216,000 in 2024–2025. Those figures don’t come with party labels, but they confirm what communities already know: the pressure is strong enough to push hundreds of thousands to other states. And it’s not just Republicans leaving. Democrats, independents, young families, retirees, and first-time homebuyers are being squeezed by the same realities. People aren’t moving to make a political statement; they’re moving to make a budget work and build a stable life. When Californians leave in large numbers, receiving states inherit growth and strain—higher housing demand, infrastructure pressure, and more political suspicion.

Housing is the biggest driver. Zillow’s statewide index puts the average California home value around 755,000 dollars. The California Legislative Analyst’s Office notes that monthly costs for a newly purchased home are roughly 2,400 dollars higher than they were just a few years ago. When a mortgage payment competes with groceries, childcare, and gas, politics becomes secondary. People either delay homeownership for a decade—or they leave.

Public safety and basic livability are the second pillar. The Public Policy Institute of California reports California’s violent crime rate declined in 2024 compared with 2023, but it remains nearly 10 percent higher than 2019. Residents want everyday order restored: streets that feel safe after dark, stores that can operate without routine theft, and public spaces that families actually use.

Businesses respond to these signals too. Corporate flight can be overstated, but it exists. The Public Policy Institute of California found a net loss of about 1.9 percent of company headquarters from 2011 to 2021. The bigger story is confidence: permitting delays, regulatory complexity, and unpredictable costs make it harder to invest and hire at the speed modern markets require.

This is where a Republican governor can offer a credible reset—not by governing for one tribe, but by returning to first principles: affordability, accountability, and public order. That means streamlining housing approvals, cutting redundant reviews, and holding agencies to timelines that make building possible. It means supporting law enforcement and insisting on consequences for repeat offenders. It also means expanding real treatment capacity for addiction and severe mental illness so the streets are not treated as the default mental health and addiction system.

A shift like that helps everyone. It helps Democrats who want to stay near family and build a future without fleeing to find a starter home. It helps independents who want practical solutions, not ideological theater. And it helps employers who want to keep jobs in California but need government to act like a partner, not a hurdle.

The 2026 governor’s race is already signaling that voters are hungry for change. Two prominent Republican contenders, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, are drawing attention as the field takes shape. An Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics survey conducted in early December 2025 placed both among the leaders in a crowded primary, with a large share of voters still undecided—especially independents. A separate Independent Voter Project survey released in January 2026 suggested Bianco held a small edge over Hilton among No Party Preference respondents who were considering a candidate. There is a call to get behind one Republican candidate, and Bianco has had consistency leading both boy polling, as well popularity of his intent. The race still has a few months before the primary. 

If California gets serious about affordability and public safety, the benefits ripple outward. Families won’t have to choose between their home state and financial survival. Employers won’t feel punished for staying. And other states won’t keep absorbing the consequences of a California that cannot retain its own residents.

Other states are right to watch California. But the lesson isn’t to build higher walls. The lesson is that the nation’s largest state can be repaired with leadership that prioritizes results. A Republican governor who governs with competence and courage could help California keep its people, keep its jobs, and stop exporting the problems everyone is tired of inheriting.