Schiff, Garvey Win U.S. Senate Primary, To Face Each Other Directly This November

Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former Major League Baseball star Steve Garvey (R) both advanced in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate primary election on Tuesday, handedly defeating Congresswomen Katie Porter (D-CA) and Barbara Lee (D-CA).

Going into the race, Aggregate sites like 538 and Realclearpolling had Schiff generally coming in with around 25%-26% of the vote, Garvey at 20%-21%, and Porter at 18%. The latest poll by US Berkely IGS released only a few days before Tuesday had Garvey at 27%, Schiff at 25%, Porter at 19%, and Lee at 8%.

However, the latest Secretary of State figures blew those predictions out of the water. With 54% of the vote in as of Wednesday morning, Schiff is currently leading with 33.2% of the vote, or 1,247,753 votes in, roughly 8% more than originally estimated. Garvey, meanwhile, saw an even bigger amount than estimate, coming in a close second with 1,218,050 votes, or roughly 32.4% of the table. Porter, who was lauded all of last year as the candidate for Schiff to beat in the November election, only received 519,644, or 13.8% of the vote.

Of the other candidates, Lee fell just short of expectations, coming in with 276,864, or 7.4% of the vote. Lawyer Eric Early, who, in polls, had only been getting around 2% since Garvey entered the race in October, did better than expected, garnering 135,417 votes, or about 3.6% of the vote. While many votes still need to be counted, especially with largely Democratic counties like Alameda, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Humboldt not even coming in at 50% counted yet, the flood of votes for both Garvey and Schiff were enough to have them clinch the top two spots within hours of polls closing.

In speeches Tuesday night, Schiff celebrated his victory, but had his speech interrupted multiple times by Gaza protesters demanding a cease-fire. It ultimately got so bad that he had to cut it short. Meanwhile, Garvey began his speech by saying “Welcome to the California comeback.” And the votes last night proved the latter for the GOP.

The initial  votes coming in also showed some unexpected patterns. Schiff managed to beat Lee in her home county of Alameda, while Garvey soundly defeated Porter in her home County of Orange. Garvey’s baseball past came in handy, with a GOP candidate taking San Diego County in a Senate primary for the first time in decades, and coming in a strong second in Los Angeles County. GOP candidates also proved strong in general in many counties, with Early coming in third in several counties like Glenn County, and Businessman James Bradley (R) cracking the top five in several, such as Tehama County, as well.

Progressive Democrats faced the worst of it however, with both Porter and Lee getting big defeats. Even if one of the two had dropped out and supported the other and had all their potential votes go to the other, they still would have been far behind Schiff and Garvey with 21% of the vote.

“There’s still a lot of votes to come in, but the way this is looking right now, you know, Californians really had something to say against the far left on Tuesday,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Wednesday. “Porter’s support deadlined. No one was expecting under 15% for her. She still has time to make it up, but not much. Instead people flocked to Schiff. Now, Schiff is still a hardcore Democrat. I mean, he was one of the people who led the impeachment articles against Trump and was censured over the investigation in the whole Trump-Russia thing. But when it comes to being Progressive, he is only in the middle of the pack amongst Democrats over it and holds some opinions on par with conservatives, such as his support of Israel.

“As for Republicans, they went towards Garvey en masse there towards the end. And how he has been doing in getting votes, it looks like he attracted a lot of those undecideds and centrists. I mean, you said it. He was the leading candidate last night in counties that have recently gone for Democrats. Conservatives really came out on Tuesday and it showed. I mean, last night, Garvey said this was what it felt like to hitting a walk off home run. He beat all expectations and has done better than any Republican in a Senate primary in decades.”

Schiff, Garvey make it to the November General election, Porter falls well short

The initial data from the results last night also point to a better than expected November for Garvey. With many other Republican candidates of right leaning independents in the race getting several points more in total votes, Garvey looks like he will, at this time, get above 40% come November.

“Well, we still need to see the final votes. Plus, take into account that many Republicans came out to vote in the primary and that November is still 8 months away,” added Lewis. “But, yeah, it is feasible. That’s the goal for many supporters. First goal was to win last night. Second is to get above 40%. Well, the big goal is to actually win it, but we need to be realistic here. Above 40% is now statistically realistic.

“A lot of places have been pushing this narrative that Schiff brought out ads going against Garvey and thus derailing Porter. And to an extent, that is true. He didn’t want to spend millions again facing her in November. Many Democrats did not want an ugly battle like that. But, take a look at those numbers again. Schiff’s ad campaign could explain some of those votes, but not all. Katie Porter did not lose because of Schiff’s ad strategy. It was a factor for sure. But Katie Porter lost because of Katie Porter. She thought that she was always going to take on Schiff, didn’t take Garvey seriously when he entered the race in October, then proceeded to fall apart when she found out that Garvey learned quick. He did horrible in the first debate, but then came back and won the second one. In San Francisco of all places.”

Angela Hewitt, a Washington based elections analyst, also told the Globe on Wednesday, “Schiff and Garvey combined got 2 out of every 3 votes last night for Senate based on current returns. Look at that percentage for  Porter. 13.8%. Look at her latest poll. 19%. She always loves using math and figures on those whiteboards of hers. And all this time it turns out she never bothered to do one on how she was really faring. You said someone told you that Katie Porter lost because of Katie Porter? That is absolutely true.”

“You do this poorly, you can try to blame everyone for everything, but in the end, you only have yourself. Porter will really be thinking on that in 2025 when she is out of public office. I mean, she’ll probably do the usual thing. Take a teaching gig at a college for awhile until another race comes up she could possibly win. But she gave up her House seat for 13.8% in a Senate primary. And now, thanks to her, there is no female Senator from California for the first time since 1992 starting next year.”

Final results from the Senate race are expected to come in soon as more votes are tallied.