The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race Schiff v. Garvey: Where It Currently Stands

Since the last update in early June, California’s U.S. Senate race between Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former pro baseball star Steve Garvey (R) has been heating up. Union disagreements, international visits, and most recently, the fallout of President Joe Biden’s debate performance led to an increasingly busy June. Garvey even finally answered a huge question by saying he would be voting for Donald Trump. With 4 months to go before election day on November 5th, this is where the Senate race stands now:

What have the candidates been up to?

Schiff and Garvey were going at it a bit more in June. Schiff has been leaving Washington to go back to California and attend more fundraisers and campaign events, while Garvey has continued on campaigning, but with an added ramping up of media appearances.

In mid-June, Garvey and Schiff had their biggest clash since the debates where the two traded barbs over labor unions. At a La Palma ironworks training center, Schiff said that “I support their ability to work together to bargain for good healthcare, a retirement, to be able to provide for their family. I don’t think Mr. Garvey particularly cares about those things. Not very supportive at all of working people, let alone labor, and I think that is a big distinguishing factor.

“He was a great baseball player. I take nothing away from his performance as a baseball player. It’s not the same skills. He’s probably a good person to go to if you want information about the designated hitter rule, but if you want to know how do we build things in California, how do we get things done, how do we address public safety challenges – he doesn’t have any idea.”

But Garvey fought back, ironically from the Congressional baseball game in Washington, by saying “As a proud former member of the Major League Baseball Players Association and SAG-AFTRA, I understand the importance of fair treatment and advocacy for workers. My policy priorities include fostering economic growth, reducing the cost of living, and creating a business environment where both small businesses and labor can thrive together. We need to protect our working families and provide them with the tools they need to succeed, rather than burden them with excessive regulations and taxes that stifle job creation and economic opportunity.”

Following that, Garvey went out to Israel and Gaza for a week visit, cementing his support of Israel while Schiff has attempted to make something of a midway stance between supporting Democratic colleagues and backing them. The month ended with Schiff continuing his split Washington-California work and campaign split, with Garvey focusing more on California appearances, even saying that he would stay in California than attend the RNC in Milwaukee later this month.

Who is backing who?

Not much has changed on the endorsement front. Many Republicans haven’t backed Garvey just yet, while Schiff had an oddly slow June in getting new endorsements. Schiff still has the major advantage here, with  dozens of local and state lawmakers, Congressional members, and Senator backing him. Garvey still has one small point above Schiff here though – the state Republican Party has endorsed Garvey, while CADEM has still yet to endorse Schiff.

How is polling going?

Only one new poll has released in June, showing virtually no new change since May. According to the June 2024 PPIC poll, Schiff is leading Garvey 62% to 37%. However, as previously noted, PPIC polls should be taken with a grain of salt. The more accurate Berkeley IGS is due to come out soon, as are others, which should paint a more accurate picture of where things are.

Polling is expected to shift somewhat, especially because of Democrats now generally pulling away away from anyone attached to Biden. Schiff has been a backer of Biden, while Garvey has attempted a more middle of the road stance. He only said recently that he would be voting for Trump after the debate last week. Garvey could pull in some centrists, DINOs and republicans who were thinking of going with Biden following the Trump court decision.

Schiff is still strong in polling, but Garvey  has a lot to work with to hit at least 40% this summer.

What is coming up next?

Garvey and Schiff will continue shifting into ‘candidate mode’ this month. Gaza protests are drying up, but wildfires are coming back in the California news cycle. Expect both of them to start discussing them more in speeches.

Both Garvey and Schiff have been fighting for the SoCal vote extensively, which is no surprise considering this is the first Senate election with both candidates being from below Visalia for decades. Big thing on the horizon  are debates and both candidates making more appearances. The LA, Inland Empire and Central Valley are going to have a bunch of visits from them, not to mention some fundraisers for Schiff in the Bay area and Garvey in Orange County. But again, wildfires will also push the candidates around there too.

Expect a July with increasing noise and possibly the first real campaign ads coming out at the end of the month

Election day this year will be Tuesday November 5th.