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The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race Schiff v. Garvey: Where It Currently Stands
Less than 3 months remain until the November election
By Evan Symon, August 9, 2024 7:10 am
Since the last update in early July, California’s U.S. Senate race between Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former pro baseball star Steve Garvey (R) has entered the dog days of summer. Both Schiff and Garvey found both honorable common ground and went to some of the nastiest fighting of the entire campaign. With the Trump assassination attempt and Biden’s announcement that he won’t run for reelection, both candidates even found time in the national spotlight. With less than 3 months to go before election day on November 5th, this is where the Senate race stands now.
What have the candidates been up to?
Let’s start with the Schiffster. Schiff started July by continually not saying whether or not he would be calling for Biden to step aside in the race. He didn’t even give a vote of confidence for Biden. He was just…there. Finally, after the Trump assassination attempt led to Trump surging in the polls, Schiff made his move and said he should step aside. Once Biden did leave, he fully backed Harris. Oh, he’s also had some rallies and fundraisers in there, but by now we’ve all gotten used to him going up to a podium in his Napa Valley garden party attire and him giving Schiffbot 2.0 speeches, so just think of those.
Garvey had a surprisingly successful July. After months of Schiff going after Garvey not committing on supporting Trump, Garvey managed to do the same to Schiff on Biden support for awhile. Then came the fact that Garvey managed to outraise Schiff in Q2 2024. It was only by $1.2 million, with Schiff still having much more in total than him, but the Democrats losing to the Republicans in fundraising in California in a major race is something that hasn’t happened in quite some time.
And for those looking for some sort of hope that the race is civil, both candidates put aside their differences and united behind condemning the assassination attempt on Trump. There’s still a line politicians won’t cross, and regardless of political thought, it’s good to see that Schiff and Garvey are on the right side.
Who is backing who?
Nothing has changed since a month ago. We’ll see a flurry soon, especially if Schiff loses ground. But right now in the world of endorsements, it’s pretty much operating on the fact that you know who is in their corner.
How is polling going?
The last poll was early July where Schiff was up over Garvey 64% to 33%. According to the June 2024 PPIC poll, Schiff was leading Garvey 62% to 37%. However, as previously noted, PPIC polls should be taken with a grain of salt. The more accurate Berkeley IGS is due to come out soon, as are others, which should paint a more accurate picture of where things are.
Until we see some other outlets, pollsters the Globe talked to have said that it is likely that Garvey really has a high 30’s, low 40’s mark, with Garvey being low sixties, high fifties. It’s a closer race than the PPIC is making it out to be, but right now, they’re the only game in town. Well, except for some unscientific viewer polls. KTLA’s last month actually had Garvey ahead. Does this mean he is ahead? No. But he is a lot closer than 33%.
What is coming up next?
Garvey and Schiff have been giving more and more speeches. Fun! Garvey is getting more comfortable with them, but still needs a bit more polish. Schiff is great at them but is still sounding like his speechwriter is Microsoft Excel. But Garvey is getting more money than Schiff right now, which is telling.
Things are going to get more heated between the two. Debate season is upcoming, and the two going after each other will be the big highlight. Schiff will probably fundraise more just to beat Garvey again Q3 as well as try and get him in some swing areas. Garvey will branch out from SoCal more and more. An appearance in Northern California or two with some wildfire fighters would be a great idea, as North State rarely gets candidate visits.
Oh, and ads. They are coming big time. The political ad/normal ad ratio come late September is going to be pretty crazy. A lot of images with veterans and reading books to uninterested children. August is usually the lightest out of all the ‘hard campaign’ months, so maybe expect some awkward photos of them eating carnival or fair food.
Election day this year will be Tuesday November 5th.
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All Schiff has to do to win in California is hate Trump. That is all the California graft industry cares about. He doesn’t even live in the state, but residency laws do not apply to democrats. Graft is not a crime, it is a feature.
Loved this fun and informative update. Which was also surprisingly hopeful. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out with “the Schiffter (“who sounds like his speeches are written by Microsoft Excel”) v. Garvey. Ha ha. Thank you!
Is Steve Garvey serious about serving as a US Senator for California? His US Senate campaign to date is on track to fail seems to me. I want Steve Garvey to beat Adam Schiff. Adam Schiff is a liar and unfit for public office.
GOP insiders tell me that the goal of the Garvey campaign manager is to move Garvey campaign donations into the pockets of GOP campaign industry insiders, and that the Garvey campaign manager feels that Garvey has no chance of beating Adam Schiff.
In recent months, Garvey took in $5M and spent $4M on email blasts and consultants. His email blasts and campaign communications are too much about his baseball career and not enough about why Steve Garvey is better than Adam Schiff for US Senate. What do baseball skills got to do with US Senator? Present Steve Garvey first as a Patriot, a successful businessman second, and distant third a very successful professional baseball player. In a letter, I asked Garvey to change his campaign icon to a Man in a Business Suit swinging a baseball bat, with #6 on his back.
A Campaign Philosophy for These Times: Slap them in the Face with their Lies and Deceptions until they are Embarrassed and their Reputation is Ruined. Burn their House Down with Facts and Truth so they have Nowhere to Hide.
I asked Steve Garvey to Stop Playing Softball with Adam Schiff. For several weeks, I sent letters to Steve Garvey asking for campaign strategy changes and offering to help with his campaign, and got no response (just more requests for money).
To beat Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey campaign needs to advertise the facts that Adam Schiff is a Liar and a Supporter of Biden policies that hurt The USA and insult American Values. Steve Garvey needs to run on the facts that Steve Garvey is Not Adam Schiff and Not a Member of the Washington Establishment / Uni-Party / Deep State – Steve Garvey puts America First.
In order to win this election, Steve Garvey needs to steal Hispanic Voters from the Democrat Party, get most of the “no party preference” voters and “other” voters, and capture all the Republican voters (with a strong “get out the vote” program). Look at the California Voter Registration Statistics in the table below. Adam Schiff has the registration numbers on his side. What is Steve Garvey doing to steal voters from Adam Schiff, capture the GOP base, and get the NPP and Other voters on his side?
California Voter Registration Statistics (February 20, 2024)
Democratic Republican No Party Preference Other
10,285,108 5,388,479 4,822,547 1,581,199
47 % 24 % 22 % 7 %
The Steve Garvey campaign needs to advertise the fact that Adam Schiff is a Liar and a Supporter of Biden policies that hurt The USA and insult American Values. Such as:
1. Lies, such as 2016 Russian Interference Hoax
2. Deceptions, such as “resident” of California for voting and “resident” of Maryland for mortgage loan
3. Supports Biden illegal immigration policy
4. Supports Biden biological males can compete in women’s sports
5. Lawfare against Donald Trump
Steve Garvey campaign is practically invisible. I did not see any trace of Steve Garvey for US Senate at the GOP California State Convention in Burlingame, CA. Is there any person-to-person team promoting Steve Garvey for US Senate? Public appearances by Steve Garvey – very few, see his campaign website.
PAUL H JOHNSON
PO Box 4106 Westlake Village, CA 91359 phjohnson@yahoo.com 805-558-6441
9 July 2024
RE: Campaign Strategy: Slap them in the Face with their Lies and Deceptions until they are Embarrassed and their Reputation is Ruined. Burn their House Down with Facts and Truth so they have Nowhere to Hide.
Hello Steve Garvey and Senate Campaign Team,
Stop Playing Softball with Adam Schiff.
Your US Senate campaign to date is on track to fail seems to me. I get the impression that you are not serious about being a US Senator. Your campaign communications are too much about your baseball career and not enough about why you are better than Adam Schiff. Your failure to attend in person the California GOP Convention in Burlingame was not just a missed opportunity to strengthen your campaign but a message that you care little about the GOP grassroots or getting elected. If you think mailers and email blasts will get you elected, you are delusional. Are the best GOP candidate the Democrats could find – even Adam Schiff wanted you (according to rumors). I did not vote for you in the primary.
If you want to beat Adam Schiff, you need to run on the facts that you are Not Adam Schiff and Not a Member of the Washington Establishment. Your campaign needs to advertise the facts that Adam Schiff is a Liar and a Supporter of Biden policies that hurt The USA and insult American Values. Such as:
1. Lies, such as 2016 Russian Interference Hoax
2. Deceptions, such as “resident” of California for voting and “resident” of Maryland for mortgage loan
3. Supports Biden illegal immigration policy
4. Supports Biden biological males can compete in women’s sports
5. Lawfare against Donald Trump
If you think many will vote for you because you are a “famous” former professional baseball player, you are delusional. I suggest you present yourself first as a Patriot (and defender of the US Constitution), a successful businessman (in the entertainment industry) second, and distant third (or sixth) a very successful professional baseball player. Your campaign materials are heavy on the Steve Garvey Baseball Player and cause me to laugh and cringe. What do baseball skills got to do with the US Senator job? You have not played baseball since 1987 – before one-third of the voters were born. I go door-to-door talking to voters, and I think your campaign materials will not influence many to vote for you.
The campaign website is most important. People will research you by viewing the campaign website. Have videos of you available in the website. In these videos, you communicate what you will do as US Senator and you discuss the main issues (illegal immigration, males competing in women’s sports, Adam Schiff is a liar and supports Biden policies) — and you explain why you are better that Adam Schiff. Change your Campaign Icon to a Man in a Business Suit swinging a baseball bat.
Having people who support you, who talk other people into supporting you, is fundamental. In this area, you suck — I see no grassroots campaign. Do better, NOW. Most voters make their voting decisions more than one month before the election, about the time that mail-in ballots are delivered. In the month before election day, resources should focus on get-out-the-vote.
You best align with Donald Trump and Trump Agenda 47. I will not support a candidate that does not openly support Donald Trump. Read and understand Trump Agenda 47.
Best wishes,
I agree with the statements above ,that Garvey concentrate on the issues and not baseball. He must get exposure to the voters and what he will do to improve California and the nation.
I also agree 100% with @Paul. The only person speaking out for Garvey on this Globe forum has been Michelle Steel’s husband; because Garvey does campaign events for them. The Garvey campaign is looking more and more like a vanity run to enhance his image…..but for what purpose?