The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race: Where It Currently Stands

Since the last update in January, the U.S. Senate race in California has seen a big changes. There have been major new endorsements, new polls pointing more and more to a Schiff v. Garvey race, and of course, the first debate in the race. With only about a month to go until the primary election, this is where everything now stands.

Who is in and who is out?

No one has withdrawn in the past month. And since it is so close to election day now, it us unlikely anyone else will.  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) or  Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) could still convince the other to drop out to support them to get over former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres First Baseman Steve Garvey (R), but that is unlikely.

Right now only Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) , Garvey, and Porter are polling above 10%. Lee is a distant fourth followed by a smattering of candidates who have been routinely getting between 2% and 5%: LA TV anchorwoman Christina Pascucci, Attorney and 2022 GOP candidate for Attorney General Eric Early and businessman and Coast Guard veteran James Bradley.

In total there remains 11 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 1 Libertarian, 1 American Independent Party, and 4 with no party affiliation. And none have left since former Google executive Lexi Reese dropped out in November

Who is backing who?

By now, it’s pretty much routine to say” Lee, Porter, and Schiff all still have dozens of lawmakers and political groups backing them, with Schiff still having generally more House members and labor unions in his corner and Lee still having more state officials, local leaders, and out of state House members. Even media groups are split: In January, McClatchy went with Lee and the LA Times went for Schiff. Porter, caught in the middle of ideologies, isn’t really gaining many.

For the GOP, Early’s longtime dominance in gaining endorsements is starting to wane somewhat, with Garvey’s popularity winning more and more endorsements. Former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio was the first major endorsement in early January, and since then, Garvey has been getting more and more in his corner as the primary nears.

Once the primary settles, there is going to be a big shift in endorsements. If it is Schiff v. Porter, Democrats will be split down the line even further. If it’s Schiff vs. Garvey, the support of moderate groups and lawmakers will be critical.

What have they been saying about each other?

The debate last month had every candidate take a big dig on Garvey. Seriously, it was a non-stop affair. Everyone tried to label Garvey as out of touch and flip flopping, especially on his views of Trump. While Garvey did get better at debating over the night, it is apparent that he needed debate coaching. But he got some digs in too.

Unsurprisingly, the big issue of contention has been the Israel-Hamas War. While the other candidates are pretty much in line on homelessness and housing, the Israel-Hamas War split the candidates. But each candidate has had something the other easily go after them on. For Porter, her position on earmarking was so isolated that even Garvey managed to get a quip over her. Lee had trouble with some of her farther left stances, such as on police funding.

Ads have mainly been about boosting candidates rather than going after others however, although that can change in the final month. There’s already been some flames come up over this, with Porter accusing Schiff of boosting Garvey so that he can knock out her early in the primary and have an easier time facing a Republican candidate rather than a Democrat.

Pascucci has also gotten a lot of mileage over the recent ballot issue where she is wrongly listed, so she is also getting some traction there all on her own.

How is polling going?

Two big polls came out in January: UC Berkeley IGS and Emerson. And, just like every poll since Garvey entered the race in October, it had specific trends. Namely, it was Schiff staying in first, Garvey narrowly holding off a declining Porter for second, and Lee falling into a distant fourth.

The latest, by Emerson, specifically has Schiff with 25% of the vote, Garvey at 18%, Porter at 13%, Lee at 8%, Early at 3%, Bradley at 2%, and Pascucci at 2%. 24% are currently at undecided, so there is still plenty to work with for all the candidates. But with Porter now down by 5 points, she needs to ramp up her efforts going into the last month. She has been spending a lot more on ads to try and turn the ship around, but she is having real trouble catching up with Garvey and his so far modest campaign.

What is coming up next?

We are now going into the final month before the primary vote. The debate is over with, so now we have that fun month of intensive campaigning to look forward to. The candidates are going to be all over the place, meaning more speeches and events rather than fundraising at this point. What to really expect is ads.

Schiff needs to maintain support to coast into one of the spots and also have ads be sculpted to either harm Porter or harm Garvey. With enough money going out, he can kind of pick and choose who he wants to face at this point. Garvey will continue consolidating Republicans as well as reaching out to moderate and  unusual demographics such as baseball fans to win people over. For him, a visit to farm areas, Latino communities, as well as circling around his base could really help him in the last month.

Porter has been going about with positive ads, but with Schiff and Garvey now ahead, she might be go negative. She has been slamming Schiff on those ads against her and boosting Garvey, so she might be trying out some new ones. Expect her “Dodger” zinger from the debate to be in some ads attacking Garvey’s question mark of support for Donald Trump to come up. As for Lee? She’s out. Pure and simple. It’s a three way race at this point.

The primary election is to be held in two months on March 5th, with by-mail ballots coming into mailboxes soon.