Schiff Stays In The Lead In Latest IGS Poll

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll was released on Friday, showing that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) continues to lead the U.S. Senate race in California, with Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) and former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) both still within the margin of error for second place.

According to the new poll, Schiff currently has 21% support amongst California voters. Coming in second is Porter, taking the second spot back from Garvey with 17% of the vote compared to his 13%. In a distant fourth is Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA), who receded back to 9%. Rounding out the rest of the candidates with at least 3% support are lawyer Eric Early (R), Businessman James Bradley (R), and Businesswoman Sharleta Bassett (R), all with 3%. 21% of voters remain undecided.

When broken down by region, Schiff continues to lead in every one besides Orange County, which Porter currently leads, and the San Joaquin Valley, which Garvey leads. The crucial Inland Empire area is also currently a near 3-way tie, with Schiff and Garvey have 16% support, and Porter 15% there.

In political ideology, those saying they are very conservative or somewhat conservative overwhelmingly support Garvey, with Schiff leading moderate  and somewhat liberal voter and Porter leading very liberal voters.

Lee, who had previously done well in the demographic areas of San Francisco Bay Area voters and Black voters, is also now losing to Schiff in those demographics, leaving the Congresswoman leading in no categories.

“Schiff owes much of his lead from the support of voters ages 65 or older, where he holds a nearly three to one advantage over Porter in the full-term election,” said Berkeley IGS Director Mark DiCamillo on Friday. “By contrast, Porter is favored over Schiff among voters under age 40 two to one. Porter also holds the advantage among strongly liberal voters, while Schiff is preferred among voters identifying as somewhat liberal or moderate in politics. Garvey’s support is largely derived from the votes of  the state’s registered Republicans and conservatives.”

Schiff leads new poll, Garvey back to third place but still very close

Compared to the recent Politico and Survey USA polls, Schiff has remained dominant, staying around the 22% and 28% he had scored before. Garvey, meanwhile, slightly fell from the 19% and 15% he had on previous polls, and falling back to third place as a result. Porter moved back to second place, scoring 17% for the second poll in the row. Finally, Lee fell back below the 10% threshold after showing some improvement in polls late last year.

“The IGS poll shows some support going back towards Porter,” added Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “But remember, on the aggregate, Garvey is still ahead. And a huge chunk of voters are still undecided. A lot of conservative voters will also likely crowd towards Garvey towards the end when it gets closer, possibly providing him with the boost he needs. For a Schiff-Garvey matchup to happen and lockout Porter once and for all, the GOP candidates need to unite behind one candidate, and it makes sense for that one to be Garvey.

“It’s also possible that Lee, who is faltering, and based on this poll, shouldn’t be in the debate this month for falling below 10%, drops out and gives a kick of support to both Schiff and Porter, with the latter desperately needing it. The polls shows a close race and slight shifts. It also shows what every candidate needs to do. Schiff needs to continue going as he has, Porter needs to draw in more support from liberals, Garvey needs to continue to get moderate voters and consolidate the GOP candidates to support only him running as the Republican candidate, and Lee needs to to branch support into less extreme liberals and maybe try and get support outside Oakland. Out of these, Schiff and Garvey seem to have the most doable ones. The next polls before the debate should be really telling at if this poll is a shift or just an anomaly.”

More Senate polls are due out soon.