The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race: Where It Currently Stands

Since the last report by the Globe in June, the 2024 race for U.S. Senate for Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat has continued to evolve, with more candidates joining in, others confirming they’re out, and polls showing a slowly shifting landscape. The lines are still blurred for many with a growing number of Californians wanting Feinstein to resign early due to her health and a likely growing field heading further into the summer. The Globe takes another look at where the race currently stands in July 2023, eight months away from the primary.

Who is in?

Joining in the madness in the past month for the Democrats was former Google executive and investor Lexi Reese. While she has no elected experience, her fundraising capabilities, ties to Washington, and non-profit experience make her a formidable candidate. For the Democrats, Reese is the largest ‘big name’ candidate to join in outside of the big three of Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) and Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA). Barring someone like Congressman Lou Correa (D-CA) or Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra joining in, Reese may very well be another major challenger, although we’ll know more once fresh polls come out.

For the GOP, Attorney and 2022 GOP candidate for Attorney General Eric Early is still the central Republican, although the most recent poll showed that Businessman and Coast Guard veteran James Bradley is climbing to challenge in the GOP. Basically the party is waiting to see if anyone else decides to enter, especially former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres MVP Steve Garvey who has been looking at running for a few months now.

Only one poll came out in the past month, by Emerson. According to the poll, Schiff now has a one point lead both in the overall poll with all voters and in the poll with just registered Democrats, coming in with a respective 15% overall total and 23% Democrats only total. This is compared with Porter, who came in with a 14% overall/22% Democrats total and Lee with a distant 6% overall/10% Democrats total.

On the GOP side, Bradley managed to get a bump of support over Early. According to the poll, Bradley currently stands at 4% of the overall vote and 13% amongst GOP voters, with Early now behind with 3% overall and 8% of GOP voters.

However, this poll should be taken with a grain of salt. The Emerson poll was drastically different from previous polls, especially in terms of GOP voters and the big three Democratic candidates. Still, it does show that momentum is shifting towards Schiff (although that is now in jeopardy thanks to his recent censure) and that undecided voters still make up a huge bloc of voters, with around half still not sure who to vote for.

Who may be in?

Right now the biggest name to have shown some interest but not yet jump in is Garvey, who would be likely coming in as a Republican.

Outside of him, it is still largely speculative, with the biggest names being offered out of virtue of them not giving a final yes or no yet. For the Democrats, this means Correa, Becerra, and Governor Gavin Newsom. For the GOP, it is former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, 2022 California State Controller candidate Lanhee Chen, and State Senator and 2022 Governor Candidate Brian Dahle (R-Bieber).

A big third party name or a celebrity joining in isn’t out of the question, as big names have jumped in out of the blue before for major races (Gary Coleman, Caitlyn Jenner, Gallagher), with some even winning (Arnold Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan) Although, right, now there have been no major indications. The closest we have had so far are Garvey and Oprah Winfrey, and right now, Garvey is still up in the air while Winfrey declined and said she wasn’t even interested only a few days after being floated as a potential caretaker Senator in case of Senator Feinstein’s early exit.

Who is out?

Right now it is pretty stagnant on the exit front. No one dropped out in the past month. Should Feinstein retire early, we’ll definitely see some drop outs as the race shifts. But unless polls show a certain candidate getting no traction, we’re likely not to see any big dropouts until at least the fall.

Who is backing who?

Not much has changed in terms of endorsements. Schiff and Lee currently hold dozens of endorsements ranging from the federal level to the local level, with a smattering of celebrities and unions backing each as well, although it should be noted that Lee holds more out of state House endorsements while Schiff holds the vast majority of California House members. Porter, is still struggling to gain endorsements, as Schiff and Lee have pretty much locked down everybody.

No major GOP endorsements have cropped up in the past month. Everyone is still waiting to see who all is in.

What is coming up next?

The name of the game right now is fundraising and candidate appearances. If you go to the state fair or a county fair this year, get ready to collect free pens and bumper stickers, as all the candidates are going to have booths off the mainway. It’s going to be one of THOSE summers again, at least for the Senate. Although you can probably expect Congressional, Assembly, and state Senate people there too.

New polls are also expected soon, so we may see where Reese and Garvey now stand in the race. The six month out mark will be in early September for the primary, and these upcoming polls and the whirlwind of appearances across the state will hopefully paint a clearer picture by then.

In any case, we may have smooth sailing for awhile, but there is a storm on the horizon, and right now, a rogue wave can still disrupt anything.