VP Kamala Harris: Run For CA Governor in 2026 or President in 2028?

According to aides and others close to Vice President Kamala, Harris is currently split about what to do for her political future, looking at either a run for California Governor in 2026 or running for President again in 2028.

In addition to years as a Prosecutor in San Francisco County, Harris has had a wide array of elected positions. This includes District Attorney of San Francisco 2004-2011, California Attorney General 2011-2017, U.S. Senator 2017-2021, and Vice President from 2021 until next month, when her term ends and Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) takes her place.

Most recently, Harris ran for President but, for the first time in her political career, lost the election. In one of the worst results for Democrats in recent presidential elections, Harris not only lost the electoral vote but lost the popular vote as well. Trump won with 77,269,255 votes/312 electoral votes to her 74,983,555 votes/226 electoral votes. In California, it was even the best showing for a Republican candidate in a presidential election in two decades, despite Harris being a “favorite son” candidate.

Since then, Harris has been deciding on what’s next for her. While another run in 2028 had always been on the table, ew polls last month made running for Governor an increased possibility. A UC Berkeley poll last month found that nearly half of all Californians want Harris to run in 2026. And with Harris now leading in polls despite not being a candidate, she has become the number one speculative candidate, outshining even Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), who is also looking for a career rebound following her embarrassing Senate Primary loss in March.

During the weekend, things grew even more muddled when aides and those close to Harris have said that she is split on which way to go. While her presidential loss last month still hangs over her head, many have pointed out that Harris is still considering running in 2028 because of Donald Trump. As Trump was elected once again after losing in 2020, many Harris allies have said that she could do the same thing and be elected 4 years later.

Donna Brazile, who was the campaign manager for Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign and was also with the Harris campaign, said that “Since Donald Trump has rewritten the rules – the norms – I don’t believe Kamala Harris or anyone should try to go with precedent, ever. There are no rule books.”

Biden and Harris campaign pollster Mollie Murphy added that “The rules potentially don’t apply this time, and she still absolutely could have a mulligan because of the unique circumstances of this race and the candidate switch. But I don’t think it will be a given.”

However, running for Governor isn’t being dismissed either. Harris would get to run a smaller campaign, and it would potentially set her up for a future presidential run. Plus, if she won, she would be the first black female Governor of a state.

“She has support in California, and her name would thrust the race to possibly being the most important or most covered in 2026,” Brittany Spencer, a Western states pollster, told the Globe Monday. “She’d get the limelight, and it would set her up for a huge comeback. Nixon did it. Reagan did it. California always has comeback politicians. Plus, if Newsom runs in 2028, he would need close allies, and having her as Governor would be a big one for him.”

Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) also noted that “Kamala Harris has deep respect and affection in California and substantive statewide experience to fix the problems in California with high rents and housing costs, homelessness, and crime. She would be formidable, if she chooses to run.”

But both options have a chance of sinking her even more. If she runs for president instead of Governor, it could all be for nothing if it is a crowded race and she winds up where she did in failing in the primaries in 2020. On the other hand, running for Governor in 2026 would make running for President again considerably more difficult.

According to one Harris aide “Running for governor would be a step down, and it would interfere with her ability to run for president again. I don’t know if she’s going to run for president again, but a shot at running for president again is worth giving up running for governor. Harris would have to think of running for governor as more of a capstone than a stepping stone. If you’re thinking of running for president in 2028, the worst thing you can do is run for governor in 2026.”

And then there are the Republicans. As Harris alienated many voters, specifically Latino voters, her running for Governor in a state with a high Latino population may not work as well as she thought. Especially since Latino, White, Asian, and even black voters voted significantly less for her compared to previous years in California. Many Democrats worry that, even if she makes it past the primary, she could lose to a name Republican.

“Kamala Harris is now seriously considering a run for California Governor, CNN reports,” said Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-CA) on X on Sunday. “She says she’s “not going quietly into the night.” If she runs, California could realistically elect a Republican Governor in 2026.”

“As much as there is a comeback story, there is also the possibility of her ‘loser’ label sticking,” Spencer added. “After her loss to Trump, she’s almost damaged goods. If the GOP gets a known moderate Republican or one who is well known or popular, she could be in a race for her life again. If the GOP gets a candidate like Arnold Schwarzenegger again, one where she can’t fire back on Trump, she could be in a very bad situation. A celebrity running or a Latino politician, oof, she could be screwed.

“A lot of Republicans in California want someone who isn’t a moderate to be Governor, but most also recognize that they need to do baby steps to get back, and having a Republican, even a RINO, win would be a big step. Faced against Harris, Republicans would still need a strong candidate, but unlike past years, it’s not impossible. That’s what is terrifying Democrats.

“The GOP currently has a rising number of registered voters in California, an increase this election in state level Assemblymembers and Senators, more and more Latinos vote Republican, and had high numbers of people vote for Trump. Harris will have to face that brick wall.”

And it would be Harris as the Democratic candidate if she ran. Currently, the Democrats have multiple candidates who have announced  runs for Governor in 2026. This includes Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Former State Controller Betty Yee, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. There are also speculative candidates, who, before Harris, had their biggest name being Porter. According to Porter earlier this month, Harris entering the race would “have near field-clearing effect,”, with most Democrats likely dropping out in favor of her.

“I’m a longtime friend and supporter of the vice president. If she decided to run for governor, I’m sure we would have a conversation first,” Kounalakis added over the weekend.

As of Monday, Harris has not said what her plans post-VP are yet, but many close to her say that she’ll decide by early Summer 2025 at the latest.