Where the Ultra-Competitive 2026 California Gubernatorial Race Currently Stands

With recent speculation that Vice President Kamala Harris and Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) might run for Governor in 2026, the Globe takes a look at the current state of the election.

Gubernatorial candidates have been slowly trickling into the Gubernatorial race since April 2023 when Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis became the first major candidate to declare her intent to run a full three and a half years before the election. Since then, on the Democratic side, she has been joined by six others, including the major candidates of State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), Former State Controller Betty Yee, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

The GOP currently has two candidates – Vice President of Zacky Farms Leo Zacky and business consultant Sharifah Hardie. As for third parties, only one major player has entered the race. That is UC Santa Barbara Professor and 2024 Green Party Vice Presidential nominee Butch Ware, who is running under the same party.

And then there are the speculative candidates. All of these candidates  are either in the process of getting to run, expressed interest, or won major polls. They all have also not said no officially yet, keeping them in the running.  For the Democrats, Attorney General Rob Bonta, Porter, Harris, 2022 L.A. Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA) and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass have all been named. In particular, Porter won a USC poll in September, showing her to be by far the best selection for the Dems, and Harris won a Berkeley poll.

For the Republicans,  State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle (R-Bieber), Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, and Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton all currently on that list as well. Former Congressman and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was briefly speculated on, but he quashed those rumors early on. Nicole Shanahan, who was Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Vice President pick until he dropped out of the race, is also mulling a third party run right now.

Less than two years before the 2026 Gubernatorial election

For the potential candidates, there is still plenty of time left to mull over a run. Candidates can file until early 2026. Candidacy declaration can go on until early March of 2026, with a certified list of Candidates coming out on March 26th. Finally, the Gubernatorial primary is set for June 2, 2026. Candidates like Harris and Porter would have about a year until filing following their respective terms coming to a close in January 2025. Bigger named candidates also don’t need to file too early as the weight of their name and experience can get them publicity.

Polling has been scarce since the 2024 election took the front seat until earlier this month, but a few have been done. Most recently, a Tulchin Research poll found that both Dahle and Villaraigosa were leading with 13% each. Kounalakis and Hilton followed with 10% each, Yee with 7%, and Atkins and Thurmond with 4%. A whopping 40% were undecided. Then there was the USC poll, which had Villaraigosa leading the declared candidate poll and Porter leading the speculative candidate poll.

More candidates are now set to either run or announce that they won’t be running, thanks to the end of the election. Many, to have ample lead time, are expected to announce early next year, although some latecomers could still enter into early 2026. However, that may mean them missing out on the first debates too.

“There are a lot of maybes for the Democrats right now,” explained gubernatorial pollster Guillermo Williams to the Globe on Monday. “Harris and Porter are the biggest question marks. Both had humiliating losses this year, Porter for the Senate back in the primary in March, and Harris for the presidency earlier this month. A Gubernatorial victory could be a ‘redemption’ of some sort. Also, the GOP is very encouraged after seeing GOP candidates get new highs of voter support for big ticket candidates. Hilton is a big name who could help there.

“The biggest takeaway should be that we are still very early in the process, but already it will be a wild primary. The Dems have 5 candidates in the race currently who could have won in previous years if not for Newsom. And that’s the other thing. Newsom’s support in the primary for a candidate could prove crucial, and he’s friends with most of the candidates. Harris comes from the same San Francisco ‘club’ too.

“It’s early, and it looks like it will be a crazy couple of years.”

More candidates are expected to enter the race in the coming months.