Deja Vu All Over Again: Tight California Congressional Races Still Up in the Air

As the counting of ballots continues in California until Dec. 11, 2020, many in the state wonder if 2020 will be a deja vu of 2018, the year of the ballot harvesting slaughter in Orange County.

In 2018, ballot harvesting had a major impact on the midterm elections in California, when seven Republican candidates were leading on election night, but lost weeks later because of the delay in counting mail ballots – many of which were harvested.

The California Secretary of State reports that Republican Michelle Steel holds a 50.9% lead over Democrat incumbent Harley Rouda’s 49.1% in the 48th Congressional District, with Steel having 196,208 votes to Rouda’s 189,235.

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• Harley Rouda (D)  167,229  49.7%
• Michelle Steel (R)  169,179 50.3%

Rouda won in 2018 unseating 30-year Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher.

The problem is that Democrats have another 31 days to find 6,973 votes to tie or beat Steel.

In the 45th Congressional District, Democrat Katie Porter still holds her lead over Republican challenger Greg Raths, with Porter’s 216,720 (53.5%) votes to Rath’s 188,359 (46.5%). Media have declared Porter the winner.

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• Katie Porter (D)  191,827 54%
• Greg Raths (R)    161,324 46%

Media is already reporting that former Republican Congressman Darrell Issa is heading back to Congress with his win over Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar. The Secretary of State shows Issa has 178,809 (53.8%) votes to Campa-Najar’s 153,670 (46.2%).

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• Ammar Campa-Najjar (D)  124,688 47.8%. (124,688)
• Darrell Issa (R)                      136,322 52.2%. (136,322)

In the 39th Congressional District, Republican challenger Young Kim is still ahead of Democrat incumbent Gil Cisneros – Kim holds 159,571 (50.5%), to Cisneros’ 156,476 (49.5%).

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• Gil Cisneros (D)  132,951  49.8%.
• Young Kim (R)    134,043  50.2%

Cisneros was elected in 2018 over Kim in a very close race and with the help of ballot harvesting. The Globe is concerned that with this race so close, ballot harvesting will be in play again this year.

The nail biter race is between Republican Mike Garcia, elected in a special election in March, and Democrat challenger Assemblywoman Christy Smith.

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• Christy Smith (D) 131,218  50.5%
• Mike Garcia (R)    128,462 49.5%

As it stands, the Secretary of State reports Garcia is ahead 148,916 (50.1%) to Smith’s 148,484 (49.9%).

Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, was elected following the resignation of disgraced California Congresswoman Katie Hill, notorious for “thropples,” daliances with staffers, online naked photos, and couples swapping websites.

The Globe is concerned that with this race so close, ballot harvesting could be used for a Democrat win.

In the 21st Congressional District, David Valadao maintains his lead over incumbent TJ Cox. In 2018, Cox unseated Valadeo in the ballot harvesting slaughter.

Valadeo currently has 66,383 (51.8%) to Cox’s 61,813 (48.2%).

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• TJ Cox (D)              53,236   48.6%
• David Valadao (R) 56,269  51.4%

In the 22nd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Devin Nunes has been declared the winner with 151,864 (54.2%) to Democrat challenger Phil Arballo’s 128,564 (45.8%).

The morning after the election, the Globe reported:

• Devin Nunes (R) 126,022  54%
• Phil Arballo (D)  109,596  46%

California has 53 Congressional Districts, with only seven held by Republicans leading up to the 2020 election.

As the Globe reported last week, numerous members of California’s congressional delegation won with huge margins, while doing little to no actual campaigning.