Garvey Takes Lead Over Schiff, Porter In Latest Berkeley IGS Poll

According to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Friday, former baseball player Steve Garvey (R) surged ahead in polling for the U.S. Senate Primary, moving ahead of previous frontrunner Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) 27% to 25%, with Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) falling to a distant third.

In total, Garvey is leading amongst likely voters next week with 27%, compared to Schiff with 25%, Porter with 19%, and Congresswoman Barbara Lee with 8%. Lawyer Eric Early and Businessman James Bradley scored 2% each, with undecided voters and supporters for the remaining candidates coming down to a combined 17%.

📈🚨NEW POLL & NEW VIDEO🚨📈@latimes/@BerkeleyIGS:

Steve Garvey: 27% 📈
Adam Schiff: 25%
Katie Porter: 19%
Others: 12%
Undecided: 9%
Barbara Lee: 8%

Join Team Garvey: https://t.co/mzr06cO5wL
Vote Steve Garvey for US Senate on/by March 5th! #CASen https://t.co/y0RYtcj4HO pic.twitter.com/pXIOfDtdSr

— Steve Garvey (@SteveyGarvey6) March 1, 2024

When broken down by demographics, the poll found that Democrats are largely split between Schiff and Porter. Porter is currently attracting people identifying as very liberal 38%-33%, with Schiff having a large lead in those identifying as just liberal, 47%-31%. Garvey has a commanding lead when it comes down to conservative and very conservative voters, with moderate voters being split amongst the three with Schiff getting 30% support from them, Garvey 21%, and Porter 17%.

Most telling is by region. In all but two areas of the state, it is either Garvey or Schiff for first and second place. By region, Schiff is first and Garvey second in Los Angeles County, the Central Coast, and North Coast Sierras, with Garvey first, Schiff second in San Diego County, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley. In Orange County Porter is second to Garvey, losing her home area to him 34%-30%, while in the San Francisco Bay Area Schiff edged Porter 28%-24%.

By age, Porter led both 18-29 year olds and 30-39 year olds by a wide margin. When it came to the 40-49 demographic Porter only led Garvey by a narrow 25%-22%. Garvey then won over the 50-64 crowd with 32% over Schiff’s 26%. The 65+ voting block was narrowly for Schiff in the poll, 35%-34%.

Finally, when it came down to how people are to vote, the results varied wildly. Schiff led amongst early voters, with 35% favoring him as compared to 28% for Schiff and 20% for Porter. Schiff also led amongst by mail/drop off voters with 26% compared to 22% for Port and 21% for Garvey. However, for voters planning on voting in person on election day, Garvey was by far the most popular candidate, with him getting a whopping 48% compared to Schiff’s 9% and Porter’s 4%.

Garvey tops Schiff in a poll for the first time

“These findings represent a dramatic change in the standings when compared to earlier polls in the Senate race,” said IGS Director Mark DiCamillo on Friday. For example, just six weeks ago the Berkeley IGS Poll had Schiff leading both Senate elections, with Garvey trailing behind Porter in third. A big part of Garvey’s appeal to primary election voters relates to voter perceptions that he will be tougher on the nation’s immigration problem than the other candidates. Nearly all of his supporters (94%) say this attribute was very important to them in deciding whom to support in the Senate race.

“If the standings in this poll are reflected in next week’s elections, the fall run-off elections for U.S. Senate will feature Garvey competing against Schiff. When likely voters in the current poll were asked their preferences in a general election run-off between the two, Garvey would start out as the clear underdog, as he trails Schiff by fifteen points, 53% to 38%, in this setting.

“There continues to be a significant generational divide in voter preferences in the Senate race, with both Garvey and Schiff running strongly among older voters, while Porter leads by a wide margin among voters under age 40. However, because older voters are likely to represent a much larger share of the primary vote, this works to the benefit of both Garvey and Schiff and to the detriment of Porter.

“About 20% of likely voters had already voted at the time the poll was conducted. Among these voters Schiff is receiving 35% of their votes in the full-term election, compared to 28% for Garvey and 20% for Porter. The poll also finds that 15% of likely voters say they will cast their vote in-person at voting centers across the state on Election Day. Garvey’s lead in the Senate elections depends on these voters turning out on Election Day, as Garvey is receiving nearly half of their votes.”

When compared to the 5 other most recent polls, Schiff has maintained a solid base with steady growth, while Garvey’s continued surge in the polls since late 2023both Schiff and Lee continue to be for-sure 1st place and 4th place victors. With the February PPIC poll, the early February Emerson poll, the WPA poll, the late February Emerson poll, and the February IGS poll shown side by side, Schiff has a rise of 24%-28%-27%-28%-25% compared to Garvey’s staggered 18%-22%-24%-20%-27% level of support. Porter has a similarly jumpy swing of support, albeit with lower figures than Garvey with 19%-16%-15%-17%-19%. Lee is a distant 4th place and is likely drawing support away from both Schiff and Porter with a 10%-9%-10%-8%-8% fluctuation.

Experts told the Globe on Friday that while Garvey taking the lead in the race was expected because of Schiff’s previous levels of support, the IGS poll wasn’t surprising. Garvey has shot up in popularity in recent months. And Lee is continually drawing support away from the other Democratic candidates.

Alarm bells going off for Democrats

“As soon as this poll hit, the excuses and skewing of it came into play,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “So many places were saying that ‘Schiff boosted Garvey in his ads over Porter’ or other things like that. But you know, Garvey largely consolidated the GOP, conservative voters, and got a lot of people on the fence. Other Republican candidates like Early aren’t getting more than 2%. He got his base and is winning over areas. I mean, he’s doing better than Porter in Orange County, and that’s her base. It’s like the presidential election. If you can’t even win your home state you’re toast.”

“My thoughts haven’t changed much since yesterday except that this poll pretty much confirms that, with a healthy turnout by GOP voters on Tuesday, Schiff and Garvey will be facing each other in November. That 2 point difference in the Emerson poll yesterday now seems to be more of a fluke.”

“And the thing is, Porter’s people are blaming those Schiff ads for her falling deeper into third place when they should be blaming Lee for not dropping out earlier. Right now, she is at 8%, and drew a lot of far left support away from Porter. But Lee gave up her House seat to run and needed to see it through for her supporters. Porter, who also gave up her seat in a very swing district, was expected to come in first or second through most of last year. But those far left voters sticking with Lee over her kept her support from expanding at a crucial time where both Schiff and Garvey saw big boosts.”

“I’ll put it this way. In the last 4 polls, all from this month including this one, Garvey’s lowest level of support in any of them was a 20%, with Porter’s absolute highest being a 19%. Lee has 8%. Porter supporters need to be blaming Lee for this one. This race was Porter’s to win, but now, it is very likely she won’t make it past March. Not impossible, as there is still some margin of errors out there showing she could still do it and final turnout on election day. But Garvey not only beating her but beating Schiff is sending a strong message to Democrats to get their priorities in order.”

“One final thing, Schiff is projected up 53%-38% over Garvey in November right now. Factor in those undecideds, and the GOP could score well above a 40% in the Senate race, something they haven’t done for quite some time. 1994 in the Feinstein-Huffington race to be precise. That is going to send some serious alarm bells for the Democrats in California.”

The primary election is due to be held on  Tuesday, March 5th.