Two New 2024 California U.S. Senate Polls Show Garvey, Porter Battling For Second Spot On Ballot

Two new 2024 California U.S. Senate polls were unveiled on Thursday. Interestingly, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll and the WPA intelligence poll vary differently on the top three candidates in the race: Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), former baseball star Steve Garvey (R), and Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA).

In the PPIC poll, Schiff was in first with 24% of the vote. In second place, Porter was narrowly ahead of Garvey 19% to 18%. Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) continued to stay in a distant fourth, with a whopping 21% in favor of other candidates. Finally, 6% said “Don’t Know.”

In their Analysis, while they still had Porter ahead, they acknowledged that Garvey has moved up more significantly in recent months and that he is now close to taking the lead in in support in her home base of Orange County/San Diego.

“Support for Garvey has increased since the December Survey (10% to 18% today), while support is similar for Schiff (21% to 24%), Porter (16% to 19% today) and Lee (8% to 10% today),” the PPIC said on Thursday. “Today, 38 percent of Democrats would vote for Schiff and 29 percent would vote for Porter. Forty-nine percent of Republicans would vote for Garvey, while independents are divided (19% Schiff, 19% Porter, 15% Garvey). Schiff has the most support in the San Francisco Bay Area (32%) and Los Angeles (26%). Porter’s support is highest in Orange/San Diego (29%). Garvey has more support in Orange/San Diego (25%), the Inland Empire (24%), and the Central Valley (21%) than elsewhere. Support varies across demographic groups. Among those under the age of 45, Porter (23%) leads Schiff (11%) and Garvey (12%). For adults 45 and older, Schiff (31%) leads Garvey (22%) and Porter (18%).”

Meanwhile, the WPA intelligence poll had Schiff at 27%, with Garvey only 3 points away at striking distance with 24%. Porter was at a distant third with 15%, with Lee at 10% – the same as the PPIC survey. Lawyer Eric Early (R) had a notable 4%, followed by other candidates with 3% in total and 17% remaining undecided.

Republican Steve Garvey blasts out publicly his internal poll showing him in a solid second place behind Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff

Schiff – 27%
Garvey – 24%
Porter – 15%
Lee – 10%

Poll conducted by WPA Intelligence from Feb. 19 to 21 pic.twitter.com/H55inJp75u

— Christopher Cadelago (@ccadelago) February 22, 2024

When broken down, the WPA poll found that the main reason for Schiff and Garvey being so far ahead of Porter was not only because of party base votes, but also because of a higher than expected amount of support coming from independents and those with no party preference. In the poll, Schiff had 40% support from Democrats with 24% from independents, and Garvey had the GOP flip version with 59% of Republicans and 27% of independents on his side. Meanwhile Porter, stuck with a three way split vote between her, Schiff and Lee, received only 22% support from Democrats and only 14% from independents.

Garvey, Porter continue to be in battle for second place

While the WPA and PPIC polls showed vastly different splits, the WPA poll was more in line with what other recent polls have shown. An Emerson College Poll released on Tuesday found that Schiff had 28%, Garvey 22%, Porter 16%, and Lee 9%. When averaged along with the recent USC poll showing an even split between Garvey and Porter for second place, it gives credence that Garvey does indeed have a lead over Porter of somewhere between 5 and 6 points.

“We’re getting down to the wire, and even the PPIC is admitting that Garvey’s support is growing fast,” Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, told the Globe on Friday. “And both polls should be taken with a pinch of salt. PPIC is the only poll out there showing Porter in the lead for second, albeit at only 1 point. And the WPA poll is Garvey’s internal poll.”

“But, you were right to average them out with more recent polls to give something of an aggregate. And that aggregate shows Schiff out in first, Garvey in a clear second, and Porter in a nearby third. Lee is still there, but she is just siphoning votes away from Porter and Schiff at this point.”

“What we need to watch for are undecided voters and those with no party preference, because they will be key. Garvey has the GOP pretty much to himself outside of Early and Bradley in the single digits of support, but only about a quarter of the state are registered GOP. The Democrats, of course, a larger percentage of voters but also a three way split going on. Independents and those waiting until election day will be the biggest question mark. She does get the younger voters, but they tend to not vote as much and generally vote early by-mail than others. She also doesn’t have more middle of the road stances on issues that Garvey has more of, doesn’t have a lot of the standby Democratic stances that Schiff abides by, and misses out on more liberal voters thanks to Lee drawing them in.”

“She also isn’t exciting as she once was. Schiff, he has that censure from last year he is still riding high on, not to mention the most fundraising dollars out there. Garvey has that baseball background that excites some. And Lee, she knows how to make headlines, like with that $50 minimum wage rant she had. Porter’s quips on the other hand are getting old. She still has a lot of younger support, but older voters largely left her, and they’re the ones who are going to be the bulk of voters come March 5th.”

“The polls today showed us what we keep seeing more and more of: Schiff is in first, Lee is in fourth, and Garvey is continuing to rise above Porter. She gave her House seat up for this and has had a massive ad blitz, but she is losing to a guy on his first political run who hasn’t really advertised yet.”

Final polls are likely to come in the next week before the Primary election on March 5th.