Garvey v. Schiff: California’s 2024 U.S. Senate Race is Closer Than You Think

For the last several months, polls have shown that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) has a commanding lead over former baseball star Steve Garvey (R). The first poll in March, right after the primary, had Schiff up 61% to 37%.  The June poll barely changed, going 62% to 37%. The latest poll earlier this month had Schiff moving up to 64% to 33%. Considering that the 2022 Senate election had Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) beating  Mark Meuser (R) 61% to 39% and former Senator Dianne Feinstein defeating Republican Elizabeth Emken in 2012 62% to 38%, the projections seem…off.

So what is going on? First, there’s always that pesky margin of error. Meuser had similar numbers in polling at the same time then shot back up as the election neared. Second, is the polling itself. All three of the polls for the General election for the Senate have been through the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which tends to lean left.

Election experts have noted that PPIC polls always have several more points towards Democratic candidates, and prior elections have shown them to be off base. How off have they been? Well, with only a few weeks before the Primary this year, they were projecting that Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) would defeat Garvey for the second slot in the race. They were the only ones doing that by that point, and only a few weeks later, Garvey beat Porter for the second slot by 1.2 million votes 31.5% to 15.3%. Garvey was even with a few thousand of beating Schiff, whom the PPIC had pegged for a landslide victory. So, they aren’t exactly reliable.

And looking out more broadly, there are signs that it is a lot closer than people think. First, Schiff, instead of kicking back and letting ads do the work like most candidates with an easy win ahead do, is out on the campaign trail like he is facing off against a fellow Democrat. Second, straw polls have been showing a different story. KTLA’s viewer poll last week, which should be noted is not scientific and is simply based on viewer votes rather than more planned voter cross-section, has Garvey actually ahead. It’s not the type of poll that can be used officially, but as an unofficial gauge, there is a definite pull for Garvey out there.

Polling Seems Off

Recent events also seem to cancel each other out. While the GOP saw a bump in support following the assassination attempt of Donald Trump in mid-July, VP Kamala Harris taking over as the Democratic candidate for Joe Biden, which Schiff was one of the earliest voices for on Capitol Hill, undid all that momentum for voters migrating to the GOP. Schiff might get a few points for being one of the people leading the charge for Biden to drop out, but how Harris does in the next few months can also change that up.

This all begs the question: Where are the two polling now? The Globe talked to several pollsters across California. The lowest bars were not 33% but rather around 36%, which is about where Garvey is in RealClear Politics aggregate polling right now. The highest bars were in the low 40s. Still not high enough to win, but showing the slow and steady comeback of Republicans in California that the last several elections have showed and confirmed through state registration data.

“Garvey is not at 33%, but neither is he at 45%,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Monday. “You raise a lot of good points, and honestly, he is between 38% to 40% right now all said and done. You have to factor in all those undecided voters and voters on the fence.”

“Harris coming in can mess with this, but as conservative voters have showed, they’ll come out, even if they are likely to lose, just to prove a point. Oh, and because California has a lot of close local elections, House elections, and Propositions coming up. I think 40% is, if not the goal, then the new watermark to shoot for. Show they are getting back on track. The PPIC polls look off, and we really need Berkeley or other places to start doing these. That KTLA poll shouldn’t be put down as a countable poll, but like you said, it is showing that support for Garvey is very alive, especially in L.A.”

“Garvey isn’t going to win barring a huge scandal or something. But what he can show is that the GOP is creeping back more and more. I think the non-PPIC polls will show him closer to that.”