Rep. David Valadao Continues Lead Over Salas In 22nd District Race

While there are many close House races this year in California, six have been highlighted as the ones to watch. According to some outlets, the ones that could ultimately swing who controls the House for the next two years  are the 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st, 45th, and 47th Districts, spanning the Central Valley, Inland Empire, and Orange County.

Perhaps the most fought over, back-to back fight kind of district has been the 22nd. Since 2013, the former 21st District/current 22nd District covering the Southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, has seen Congressman Valadao win, lose, then win the district again despite a growing Democratic advantage. Valadao managed to hold onto office until the 2018 ballot harvesting blue wave mid-terms, when Democrat T.J. Cox won by roughly 900 votes, 50.4% to 49.6%. However, two years later, a Twitter scandal and the revelation that Cox had unpaid taxes swung the election back to Valadao – this time with almost 2,000 votes a difference.

Two years after that, in 2022, redistricting pushed the district more in favor of Democrats, with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) coming in as the heavy favorite over Valadao. According to some polls, he was ahead by as much as 8 points. But Valadao’s tough campaign, as well as Salas making some questionable political moves, swung the race towards Valadao. Valadao ended up winning by just over 3,000 votes, 51.5% to 48.5%.

Salas immediately vowed that he would run in 2024, citing his narrow margin and the district being heavily Democrat as reasons he would win out. The California Democratic Party (CADEM) soon released their 2024 House election targets, with the 22nd being front and center. With former Fresno City Councilor Chris Mathys also coming into the race, the GOP looked like it was going to split the vote just as it had in the 2022 primary where Salas won by a wide margin over the Valadao-Mathys GOP nomination fight. However, Salas soon saw a major complication come up.

In July 2023, state Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) announced that she would be running for the seat as well, changing what was once a 1 Democrat/2 Republican race into a straight 2 Democrat/2 Republican free for all. As primary day crept closer, polls showed that voters were split in both parties. However, the Democrats had more of a damning split, as right-leaning voters were going to come out en masse. Projections showed that Valadao was surging, with the second-place victor now likely to be a battle between Salas, Hurtado, and Mathys. However, after several days of vote counting past the primary, Valadao and Salas were elevated as the top two.

Since then, Salas has been trying to eclipse Valadao again and again. Months of campaigning have done little to help Salas, who has been finding himself in a worse spot than in 2022. He is still close enough to get a win, but unlike 2022, Valadao has ample breathing room. The most recent campaign finance reports have Valadao pegged with $2 million cash on hand, with Salas only having around $1.7 million. Even more favorable has been the polls. The latest poll, which came out in late August, has Valadao up 44% to Salas’ 38%, with 18% still undecided. With the last amount likely to be split, Valadao has a safe 53% cushion, as compared to his 51.5% showing two years ago.

In recent weeks, Valadao has remained strong, focusing on water issues in the District. As water issues are a major concern, Valadao has continued to go after the big undecided vote.

Last week the @NatResources Committee held a field hearing on the water challenges we face here in the Central Valley. Water mismanagement in California will have nationwide consequences unless we take action. pic.twitter.com/k0zk987oJz

— Rep. David Valadao (@RepDavidValadao) September 9, 2024

Meanwhile, Salas has continued to focus on labor issues. While big, especially amongst some farm workers in the area, water issues have proved to be the bigger of the two issues, with Valadao targeting more constituents.

“Salas needs more focus in his campaign, as Valadao is only getting more and more support,” explained Alex Guzman, a Central California pollster, to the Globe on Monday. “Salas did see a little bump in support as Democratic candidates saw more support come post-Harris being nominated. But that honeymoon is over, and it has gone back to being an issues based campaign.

“Valadao knows exactly what to focus on for his district while Salas is still aiming for some niche areas. And you can see the result of that in the polls. Valadao is doing better than expected. And Democrats really wanted to take the 22nd back. But with how it is right now, it looks like they just aren’t going to have Salas win.

“There is still time, of course. But catching up to Valadao is going to be a tremendous task for Salas. Especially with less money and Valadao being the incumbent.”

More polls for the 22nd are to come later this month.