Congressman Valadao, Salas Remain Neck and Neck in Close Race

A new Emerson College poll released on Tuesday found that the 22nd Congressional District race, which covers the Southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, is currently too close to call, with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) barely up over Congressman David Valadao (R-CA) 47%-45%.

Since 2013, the former 21st District/current 22nd District has seen Congressman Valadao win, lose, then win the district again despite a growing Democratic advantage. Valadao managed to hold onto office until the 2018 ballot harvesting blue wave mid-terms, when Democrat T.J. Cox won by roughly 900 votes, 50.4% to 49.6%. However, two years later, a Twitter scandal and the revelation that Cox had unpaid taxes swung the election back to Valadao – this time with almost 2,000 votes a difference.

Two years after that, in 2022, redistricting pushed the district more in favor of Democrats, with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) coming in as the heavy favorite over Valadao. According to some polls, he was ahead by as much as 8 points. But Valadao’s tough campaign, as well as Salas making some questionable political moves, swung the race to Valadao who ended up winning by just over 3,000 votes, 51.5% to 48.5%.

Salas immediately vowed that he would run in 2024, citing his narrow margin and the district being heavily Democrat as reasons he would win out. The California Democratic Party (CADEM) soon released their 2024 House election targets, with the 22nd being front and center. With former Fresno City Councilor Chris Mathys also coming into the race, the GOP looked like it was going to split the vote just as it had in the 2022 primary where Salas won by a wide margin over the Valadao-Mathys GOP nomination fight. However, Salas soon saw a major complication come up.

In July 2023, state Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) announced that she would be running for the seat as well, changing what was once a 1 Democrat/2 Republican race into a straight 2 Democrat/2 Republican free for all. As primary day crept closer, polls showed that voters were split in both parties. However, the Democrats had more of a damning split, as right-leaning voters were going to come out en masse. Projections showed that Valadao was surging, with the second-place victor now likely to be a battle between Salas, Hurtado, and Mathys. However, after several days of vote counting past the primary, Valadao and Salas were elevated as the top two.

For most of the general race, Valadao has remained ahead. In late August, Valadao was up 44% to Salas’ 38%, with 18% still undecided. With the last amount split, Valadao had a safe 53% cushion, as compared to his 51.5% showing two years ago. However, over the next month, Salas surged. A strong debate performance, a focus on labor and water, and perhaps most critically, hammering in the fact that Valadao had voted to impeach Trump in order to alienate him from Republican voters, shifted things dramatically. By late September, Salas was now up in polls 47%-44% with 9% undecided.

While Valadao pushed back hard in October, Salas was aided by down ballot voters going for Harris. That led to the latest poll on Tuesday, showing Valadao coming to within 2 points of Salas 47%-45%, with 8% still undecided. The poll also found that Donald Trump is currently behind Kamala Harris by 14 points, 56% to 42%, giving Valadao the down ballot advantage. However, Valadao’s incumbency and Congressional experience has kept him within striking range. In fact, similar polls at this time in 2022 had him behind Salas as well, only for him to win in November.

Neck and neck in the 22nd

A key factor, like many races in California, are Latino voters shifting slightly to the right this year, which has aided Trump in the presidential election, as well as in many House races. In the 22nd, Salas currently has a major advantage with Latinos, but his support with them has gone down in recent months, showing that the race can shift further in the next week.

“Hispanic voters, who represent a majority of the district, break for Salas by 13 points, 53% to 40%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling. “White voters break for Valadao, 57% to 34%.”

Others noted that Salas needs to do everything possible for the next week to keep this advantage.

“Many people wrote off Salas for this one after some strong poll showings by Valadao, but Salas managed to turn things around here,” explained Alex Guzman, a Central California pollster, to the Globe on Tuesday. “Valadao underestimated how much Salas would be going after the Latino vote. They didn’t think Harris supporters would also be voting for him in a Democratic line for all the offices. But that’s exactly what happened.

“Valadao did strike back, and you can see that slight turnaround in polling. But the question is now if it is enough. He’s within the margin of error, and like you pointed out, polls last year had Salas at a minor advantage and he still lost. So what this comes down to is if Salas can hang on to his Latino base, if Trump supporters turn up in large numbers and forgive Valadao for voting against him, and if Harris supporters want to not change things up in the Congressional area. Or, if they even vote for offices past Harris.

“It will be a close one, and Salas really doesn’t want to lose again. And even if he does win, you can bet Valadao will be back. He’s done it before. And if Harris wins, that means he will be aided by the mid-term swing in support too. Big-time nail-biter this one, for both parties.”