13th House District Race Between Duarte, Gray Within 351 Votes With 98% Of The Vote In

The 13th Congressional District race between Congressman John Duarte (R-CA) and former Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) continues to be the last of two remaining undecided House races, with Duarte holding a small 351 vote lead with only about 5,000 uncounted votes remaining.

During the 2022 midterms, the 13th Congressional district, which spans the San Joaquin Valley, covering, all of Merced County, most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin Counties, was the location of the closest House race in the country. Modesto pistachio farmer and businessman John Duarte managed to get a surprise victory in the district, defeating Gray by 564 votes. The race wasn’t even called until early December thanks to the harrowingly close figures. This only encouraged Gray to run in 2024, sure that he would be victorious the second time around.

Initially, 2024 didn’t look much different. The primary decided it would be Gray and Duarte yet again, with every election prediction hub labeling the race as a toss-up. Polls showed that Gray had a narrow 46% to 45% lead with a 9% undecided vote and 5.6% margin of error going into election day. Gray also ran on more “DINO” and moderate stances than in 2022, to appeal to centrist and undecided voters. However, Gray was hit particularly hard in the weeks before Election Day following new information revealed that he had given around $40,000 to family members from previous campaign funds. Duarte, meanwhile, managed to win debates and shored up critical centrist and Latino support. Trump managing to help reawaken the GOP in California also brought in support.

On election day, initial results  showed that surge. Duarte was up over Gray 56,785 to 53,596, or 51.4% to 48.6% with only about half the vote in. Like many other races, it was expected that mail-in votes would melt away some of his lead, with Gray possibly even coming out ahead the next week. But the updated results from the state on the 14th were a bit of a surprise. Duarte stood at 79,456 votes and Gray at 75,693 with a total of 73% of the vote in. In terms of percentages, it is at 51.2% to 48.8%. This led a few outlets to begin calling the race, and many others expected to do so at the next tally.

However, in the next week leading up to Thursday, votes for Gray seemed to pour in, leading many to back off calling Duarte the victor for now. As of Thursday afternoon, Duarte is now only up 101,217 votes to 100,866, or, 50.1% to 49.9%. But there is only so much more to pull from too, as 98% of the vote has been counted, with only about 5,000 left to go. While trends seem to favor Duarte still, the 351 vote difference is thin enough that, if it holds, it might be the second race in a row where it is the closest in the nation.

A 351 vote difference

While frustratingly slow, elections officials from the different counties have said that they are going as fast as they can under California law.

Merced County Registrar of Voters Mel Levey said on Wednesday that “I understand the public’s impatience at times with wanting to know results quickly, but there are a lot of laws that we have to follow quickly in California to make sure that this count is done properly, is done securely, is done accurately.”

Both candidates have also shown patience in the matter, with both sides saying that they wanted every vote counted.

“We are going to wait for everybody to be counted. Until this race is called,” explained Duarte. “We’ll take up Republican and independent ballots, I will take them to the families in the households that cast those ballots and say if this is your ballot, we need your signature on this card to cure this ballot and make sure your vote is counted.”

Gray had similar sentiments, saying Wednesday, “We shouldn’t be as focused on the time, as we should on the accuracy, that everybody is doing it appropriately, and counting the votes appropriately. I want to make sure every vote’s counted. Whether people voted for me or against me, I’m a believer’s in democracy and it’s something we should all be a believers in.”

California currently has a statewide deadline of December 3rd for all counties to submit their final votes, meaning a winner should be known by that date. While a recount is possible, both sides have essentially said that they’ll cross that bridge if they get to it.

“Last week everyone was ready to give this race to Duarte, but Gray managed to roar back,” said Anne Granger, a researcher who keeps track of close House races in Western states, to the Globe on Thursday. “Merced County has roughly 3,200 votes left to count, with the rest being cured votes that need voter signatures.  This sort of favors Duarte. Merced County actually voted more for Trump than Harris this election, with Duarte also likely to get the majority of cured votes. I mean, he keeps mentioning it. For Gray, he is hoping that the higher number of registered Democratic voters in Merced County will boost his number instead. Both sides have good cases for possible victory. It’s why we aren’t calling it yet.

“Both sides are also saying that they are patient and all right now, but you can bet they are all very anxious. It’s deja vu from 2022, except this time, it could be even closer. Democrats had the transplants coming in and pushback against Trump, but the GOP had a late Republican surge and the huge swing of Latino voters going Republican this year. Duarte doesn’t want to be a one and done Congressman and Gray doesn’t want to be known as the guy who lost two House races in a row. And both national parties want the last two remaining seats. The GOP has the House, but a few extra seats could be either ample buffer for them, or keeping it close enough for some surprise votes in Congress for the Dems. We’ll know soon, but we’re on the edge of our seats.”

Updated vote totals are expected Friday.