13th House District Race Between Gray, Duarte Separated By Only 182 Votes

According to the latest vote totals, only 182 votes separate Congressman John Duarte (R-CA) and former Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) in the 13th Congressional District race, with Gray having a razor thin lead in the last open House race in the country.

During the 2022 midterms, the 13th Congressional district, which spans the San Joaquin Valley, covering, all of Merced County, most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin Counties, was the location of the closest House race in the country. Modesto pistachio farmer and businessman John Duarte managed to get a surprise victory in the district, defeating Gray by 564 votes. The race wasn’t even called until early December thanks to the harrowingly close figures. This only encouraged Gray to run in 2024, sure that he would be victorious the second time around.

Initially, 2024 didn’t look much different. The primary decided it would be Gray and Duarte yet again, with every election prediction hub labeling the race as a toss-up. Polls showed that Gray had a narrow 46% to 45% lead with a 9% undecided vote and 5.6% margin of error going into election day. Gray also ran on more “DINO” and moderate stances than in 2022, to appeal to centrist and undecided voters. However, Gray was hit particularly hard in the weeks before Election Day following new information revealed that he had given around $40,000 to family members from previous campaign funds. Duarte, meanwhile, managed to win debates and shored up critical centrist and Latino support. Trump managing to help reawaken the GOP in California also brought in support.

On election day, initial results  showed that surge. Duarte was up over Gray 56,785 to 53,596, or 51.4% to 48.6% with only about half the vote in. Like many other races, it was expected that mail-in votes would melt away some of his lead, with Gray possibly even coming out ahead the next week. But the updated results from the state on the 14th were a bit of a surprise. Duarte stood at 79,456 votes and Gray at 75,693 with a total of 73% of the vote in. In terms of percentages, it is at 51.2% to 48.8%. This led a few outlets to begin calling the race, and many others expected to do so at the next tally.

However, in the next week votes for Gray seemed to pour in, leading many to back off calling Duarte the victor. Last week the race only grew closer with  Duarte only up 101,217 votes to 100,866, or, 50.1% to 49.9%. Then, on Wednesday, Gray finally pulled ahead with the last mail-in votes being counted, 104,503 votes to Duarte’s 104,321 votes.

Neck to Neck

The closeness of the race, and California’s decision to continue counting votes that arrived up to 7 days past election day, has caused the Republican National Committee (RNC) to file lawsuits against California.

“It is absurd for California to accept ballots by mail up to 7 days after Election Day and take almost a month to count them,” said RNC Chairman Michael Whatley on Wednesday. “The RNC, alongside the California Republican Party, will continue to fight aggressively to force all states to stop accepting ballots after Election Day.”

However, despite the lawsuit, the last of the votes will be counted in the district, with current trends pointing now to Gray being the likely victor in the race by early next week, when vote counts are due. Should Gray win, it would cap a come from behind victory in the nation’s tightest district. While it is too late for the Democrats to gain control of the House, a victory in the 13th District would keep the Republican majority within only a few members, as well as increase the number of Democratic members of the House after a few other House race flips earlier this month, including several contested races in Orange County.

“The GOP is doing everything they can to get cured vote signatures right now, but the mail-in ballot are what turned things around here last minute,” said Anne Granger, a researcher who keeps track of close House races in Western states, to the Globe on Thursday. “If there was no acceptance of mail-in ballots up to a week after, Duarte would have won and Steel probably would have won too. The RNC is really going to go after California on his. Democrats know that mail-in ballots favor them, so they’ll fight too.

“In 2022, the Duarte-Gray race brought into question recounts and vote counting. It’s deja vu right now, but now with the Republicans pressing the latter issue more. And if Duarte loses, you can bet that the RNC and the CAGOP will push hard on late vote counting.”

Final votes in the race are expected soon.