Rep. Michelle Steel Concedes 45th District House Race to Dem Attorney Derek Tran

In one of the closest races in the county, Attorney Derek Tran (D) defeated Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA) in the 45th Congressional District Race on Wednesday, narrowly unseating her by a vote of 157,960 to 157,347.

In this year’s 45th Congressional District race, which covers parts of both Orange County and Los Angeles County, Tran took on the incumbent Steel. While Steel was up in May in polls, by July it was a 47%-47% tie. Tran, aided by targeting Asian communities in the District and Vice President Kamala Harris’ goodwill going down ballot, was soon up, with him being two points ahead in September. However, that began to change last month when Tran went from scandal to scandal, including lying about being able to speak fluent Vietnamese, false claims about his military record, and then the biggest roadblock so far, his legal career – such as representing a rapist for profit and defending someone who had put up a noose in his office.

Tran, fueled by money coming in from the national party, drastically increased ads in response. In mid-October, a new poll found that Steel was four points ahead 45% to 41%. This only caused them to break out more last minute ads. However, that flurry of activity has brought to light some of Tran’s more questionable claims, with one including his traffic commission attendance. With Tran’s 60% commission attendance exposed and compared heavily to Steel’s 99% voting attendance in Congress, the Tran team latched to the only major allegation to rise since – one that dated back to her time as an Orange County Commissioner. Desperate, Tran tried a last minute gambit alleging that she gave a senior meal program contract to a printing company she used in order to regain the majority vote.

Early on, results after election day showed that Steel had all but won. On the day after election day, with 66% of the vote in, she was over 10,000 votes ahead, with 123,361 compared to Tran’s 113,225. However, this swiftly changed. As more votes were counted, Steel’s lead progressively narrowed. Her all but called race soon turned out to be the closest race in the entire nation. In mid-November, updated voting results from the state showed her to be only 236 votes ahead with 93% of the vote in. In total, this is 152,021 votes to 151,785 votes, with it all but being a tie percentage-wise.

The closeness of the race has even led to some accusations by members of Congress. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (D-GA) posted on X this week that “The Democrats are stealing a House seat right out from under us in CA. We barely control the House and will have a 1 seat majority in January when Trump takes office while we fill 3 seats through special elections. We have to stop election rigging, this is a continuing battle.”

However, new results last week had Tran go slightly ahead of Steel by 519 votes with 98% of the vote counted. While Steel had hoped for a reversal this week, it ultimately didn’t happen, with Steel conceding the race on Wednesday following the latest count showing Tran with a razor thin yet insurmountable 157,960 to 157,347 vote total, or 50.1% to 49.9%.

“From the moment I came to the United States, I knew that giving back to the country that welcomed me with open arms would be part of my future,” said Steel in her concession on Wednesday. “Because of the opportunities offered by this great country, and God’s great blessings, I was able to go to college, start a family, and build my own American Dream. I embarked on a mission to assist First Generation Americans, stand up to our adversaries, and defend human rights.

“The journey to work on behalf of legal immigrants and struggling families took me somewhere I never could have imagined – and for which I will always be grateful — the United States Congress. Everything is God’s will and, like all journeys, this one is ending for a new one to begin. I owe a debt of gratitude to my supporters, my staff, my family, my daughters and especially my husband, Shawn, for standing by me through endless campaigns.

“And, to the voters, thank you. I will never stop fighting for you.”

Tran wins 45th district

Tran also declared victory this week. In his own statement, he noted that “This victory is a testament to the spirit and resilience of our community. As the son of Vietnamese refugees, I understand firsthand the journey and sacrifices many families in our district have made for a better life. My parents came to this country to escape oppression and pursue the American Dream, and their story reflects the journey of so many here in Southern California.

“Throughout this campaign, I heard from voters who wanted representation that prioritizes our community’s unique challenges. From the need for affordable healthcare and housing to the importance of an economy that includes everyone, people here are looking to the future with hope and determination. I look forward to representing that optimism and working tirelessly to ensure that our communities’ voices are heard in Washington.

“I want to thank every volunteer, supporter, and voter who believed in our campaign’s mission. This victory is a powerful reminder of what we can accomplish together. I am honored to represent you and eager to get to work and put people first.”

With the seat now officially flipped, the Democrats have successfully taken back one of the Orange County Districts they have wanted back since 2020. However, the win did little to boost their standing nationally, as the GOP had already flipped the House. Statewide though, the victory did finally give the Democrats their first boost in House seats in California since the 2018 midterms.

“The Democrats poured a ton of money into this race, but ultimately what it seemed to have come down to is the small Vietnamese-American minority in the county,” explained James Garcia, a pollster who works in Orange County and San Diego County, to the Globe on Wednesday. “Tran had a distinct advantage with them and fought for their vote mercilessly, and it paid off. Steel had an Asian voter advantage in 2022, but Tran managed to crack it this year.

“The problem is, that now, Tran needs to hold onto the seat. It remains one of the closest contested ones in the nation, and remember, the GOP has flipped it before, like with Steel in 2020. So the GOP will be gunning for it back in 2026. Remember, Steel beat Harley Rouda in 2020. Tran just needs a few slip ups and the GOP will have it back.”

As of Wednesday evening, only the California thirteenth district remains as the only not decided House seat, with Congressman John Duarte (R-CA) and former Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) currently locked in a near tie.