California Department of Water Resources Predicts A Dry 2025

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) predicted earlier this week that California will face a mostly dry 2025, with major storms expected in the first few and last few months of the year.

Since the late 2010’s, California has had megadrought conditions across the state resulting in water restrictions in both urban and agricultural areas, as well as record lows in reservoir levels across the state. In 2022, many predicted an even drier 2023, with even more restrictions coming to help preserve water.

However, instead of another drought year, 2023 became the year of rain and flooding. Several atmospheric river events struck the state in January and March, bringing down record rain amounts, flooding, and in the mountains, near record snowpack levels. Because of the rain and subsequent meltwater, reservoirs have remained at or near full brim. Lake Oroville, for example, went from a 710 foot level in June 2021 to a 900 foot full brim in June 2023.

2024 proved to be a wet year as well despite hotter temperatures lasting until October. This included snowpack levels being above 100% on April 1st, a major indicator that the state would have more than enough water for the year. Things improved so much, that for the past few years, California has been drought free.

But, according to the DWR, California is in for a return to drier weather next year. In a report this week, forecasts and a projection of a La Nina year led the DWR to give an initial State Water Project (SWP) allocation forecast of five percent of requested supplies for 2025, down from the usual 10% of previous drought years, and way down from the 100% allocation of the past few years.

DWR Director Karla Nemeth said that “Based on long-range forecasts and the possibility of a La Nina year, the State Water Project is planning for a dry 2025 punctuated by extreme storms like we’ve seen in late November. We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply. Our wettest months of the season are still to come.

“What we do know is that we started the water year following record heat this summer and in early October that parched the landscape. We must account for dry soils in our State Water Project allocation planning and our runoff forecasts for the spring.”

A likely dry 2025

While the early cuts are a conservative precaution in case the year is drier than expected, it is expected to effect farmers in the state particularly hard. This is only amplified by state environmental measures that allow large amounts of freshwater to be released back to protect species of fish instead of using it for more pressing needs such as agriculture and urban use.

However, the first few months of the year can still be major indicators of what kind of year it will be. Should snowpack amounts stay high until the critical April 1st date, California will have enough water to last the year, albeit with some probable water control measures added in because of expected higher temperatures. Southern California, with fewer reservoirs, is likely to institute some water control measures as seen in 2022 and 2021. But it is till largely wait and see at this point.

“Yeah, we need to see just how much rainfall we get in January, February, and March,”  explained Jack Wesley, a water systems consultant for farms and multi-family homes. “Projections right now show it to be drier, but they predicted the same for 2023, and look what happened there. It’s good to have some planning now for the worst, but no one is freaking out yet precisely because we just aren’t there yet. We could get a ton of rain still, we may get little. It’s just too early to tell. The DWR is just being cautious.”

More water allocation announcements are expected early next year.