GOP Announces 3 of 37 Targeted House Seats To Flip In 2024 Are In California

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced earlier this week a list of 37 Democratic House seats that will be specifically targeted to flip in 2024, including three within California.

Following the 2022 midterm election, the Republican party regained control of the House in Washington, pushing to a 222-213 party split, changing from a narrow 216-213 Democratic-favored House beforehand. California played a large role in the flip, taking away two Democratically held seats while also bumping up one more for the GOP.

Following the loss, Democrats went on the defensive for 2024. In January in California, only days after Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) announced that she would forego another term in 2024 in favor of a Senate run, Democrats quickly fought to get in the race due to Porter barely winning out in 2022. Former Democratic Congressman Harley Rouda, state Senator Dave Min (D-Irvine), and 2022 runner up Scott Baugh are now in the 47th Congressional District race nearly two years out, with Baugh currently at an advantage having nearly won against Porter.

Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also listed the Orange County/San Diego County 49th District, currently held by Mike Levin (D-CA), as one of the seats most at-risk for the Democrats next year.

“House Republicans have shown voters their caucus is more concerned with political investigations, empowering extremists, and seeking power for themselves, than working to improve the lives of everyday families – and that will stand in clear contrast to the formidable Democratic Frontliners,” said DCCC Chairwoman Suzan DelBene (D-WA) last week. “Democrats will have great offensive opportunities in 2024, and holding onto these seats is key to our path to reclaiming the majority.”

This led to the NRCC giving their own list of 37  House races across the country to specifically for after next year. Out of the 37, California has three that have a good chance of being flipped for the GOP – the open 47th District in Orange County, Levin’s 49th District and the 9th District in the Stockton-area, currently held by Congressman Josh Harder (D-CA).

“Republicans are in the majority and on offense. We will grow our House majority by building strong campaigns around talented recruits in these districts who can communicate the dangers of Democrats’ extreme agenda,” explained NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) in a statement on Monday. “These House Democrats should be shaking in their boots.”

For many, the question now becomes how likely can the GOP knock these out next year? The elections are still 20 months away, and a lot can happen between now and then. With a Presidential race, Senate race, and many state and local races also in the works across California, voter turnout may be key in many Districts. But it should also be noted that all three were very close in 2022:

CA-9:

Josh Harder (D): 54.8%

Tom Patti (R): 45.2%

CA-47:

Katie Porter (D): 51.7%

Scott Baugh (R): 48.3%

CA-49:

Mike Levin (D): 52.6%

Brian Maryott (R): 47.4%

Close races for 2024

In particular, thanks to redistricting, all the Democrats had significantly lost ground from the 2020 election, with Porter losing 2 percentage points in the shift, and Levin going down nearly 4 percentage points since the 2018 election.

“We need to remember that everyone thought going into the midterms that Republicans would have crushed the House and win the Senate, but instead they had a thin win in the House and just lost out on a Senate majority,” explained Virginia-based election consultant Melinda Hoover to the Globe on Wednesday. “And we need to remember that it is mid-March 2023 right now, and that the primaries for these elections aren’t for another year, with the 2024 fall election a year-and-a-half away. Things can, and always do, happen to change things up.”

“That being said, the GOP definitely has the upper hand in several races. Democrats will fight hard, particularly in California. Specifically District 13, where [Congressman John] Duarte (R-CA) won by just around 600 votes, and District 45 where Michelle Steel (R-CA) also had a close one. A lot of Central and Southern California races are also close too, for both parties, but these are the glaring examples. So they also need to play the defensive for these people, as they are crucial races.”

“But, like I said, the upper hand. Porter will be gone, and the Democrats are likely going to burn through a lot of cash in the primary due to them having two candidates. Baugh can bide his time. For Levin’s seat and Harder’s seat, the GOP really needs to get an exciting candidate in each, but it is very possible.”

“The 3 seats the GOP are targeting make total sense and are their best chances at gaining ground next year here. But they have got to defend Duarte, Steel, and others who may be at risk next year too. Even Kiley. They’re incumbents now, but that isn’t a sure thing, especially in swing districts.”

More on likely candidates for the highlighted district are expected soon as candidates continue to enter the 2024 race earlier than usual this year.