New Poll Shows 61% of Californians Oppose Biden Running in 2024

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Friday shows that over 60% of California voters oppose President Biden from running again in two years, with other candidates from both parties gaining popularity as potential replacements in 2024.

According to the poll, 61% of Californians oppose a Biden 2024, with only 31% being in favor of it. By party preference, Republicans oppose a Biden 2024 run 87%-9%, with no party preference voters opposing 65%-24% and third party voters 67%-25%. Only Democrats were close to favoring him, with the party evenly split at 46%-46%.

For California Democrats asked who they would want instead of Biden, Governor Gavin Newsom garnered 25% support amongst all candidates for either a first or second choice, even beating out options such as other (14%) and undecided (19%). Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Californian Vice President Kamala Harris tied for second with 18% support each under that category. Only one other candidate, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, had more than 10%, coming in with 13%.

The poll also looked at Donald Trump running in 2024. 71% of all Californian voters oppose Trump running in 2024 according to the poll, with only 25% in favor. Broken down by party, Democrats oppose a Trump run 91%-7%, with no party preference voters opposing him 75%-19% and other parties 66% to 27%. However, unlike Biden who is split within his own party, the majority of GOP voters in California still support a Trump 2024 run, 66%-29%.

For the 2024 GOP Presidential candidate selection, Trump is also out ahead in California, beating out second place finisher Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 38%-27%. However, should Trump not run, DeSantis’ percentage shoots up to 53%, with the next closest candidate, former Vice President Mike Pence, garnering only 9%.

Compared to polls last month, the trends show that Biden’s support in the Golden state continues to drop amongst all political parties, while Newsom’s profile continues to rise amongst Democrats as the clear non-Biden favorite for 2024. For the GOP, Trump’s support remains strong, albeit with Governor DeSantis slowly gaining in popularity as well.

“Some combination of a Biden/Harris/Newsom vs. Trump/DeSantis/Pence run in 2024 looks probable, at least right now,” explained Laura Chaffee, an elections analyst in Washington, DC, to the Globe on Friday. “Of course, all of these candidates have significant baggage, in particular Newsom and DeSantis as they haven’t been picked apart on the national stage yet all too much.”

“The Berkeley poll definitely shows that Californians really are not liking Biden. And that doesn’t bode well for Democrats in the state. Newsom is really getting that ‘favorite son’ status, although many people there will argue that he is no son to them. But he is getting more popular as an alternate candidate, and many Republicans may like to see him give it a try in 2024, if only to split the party if Biden wants to run too, similar to the Republicans in 1976 with Reagan and Ford or in 1912 with Roosevelt and Taft.”

“For the GOP, it’s another indication that Trump remains popular, and if he doesn’t run, then DeSantis has enough popularity to keep things interesting.”

“Big takeaway here is that, at last from California’s standing, Biden is more vulnerable now, Newsom’s stock is on the rise, and the Republicans have two very strong candidates. Even though a GOP win in California in 2024 is unlikely to say the least, they are proving to be more united right now in candidate choice.”

More polls are expected to be released later this year on Midterm and 2024 preferences of Californians.