State Senator Scott Wiener Explores Possible 2024 House Run in Pelosi’s District

A possible House run by State Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) continued to grow on Monday following his announcement late last week that he had launched an exploratory committee over running for former House Speaker and current Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi’s seat in California’s 12th Congressional District in 2024.

Since January, several House seats have been announced either as open or likely open, bringing forward an unusually high number of possible candidates this early in the election cycle. Due to Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) announcing that she won’t run in 2024, Congressional Members Katie Porter (D-CA), Adam Schiff (D-CA), and Barbara Lee (D-CA) have entered the Senate race early, opening up their long-time held seats.

In Lee’s District 12, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Lateefah Simon has already entered the race, with many including former Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor likely to announce his candidacy soon.

District 47, which will be open due to Porter leaving, already has 5 major candidates entering the race with the Orange County district considered a swing district. Former Republican Assemblyman Scott Baugh, who nearly beat Porter in 2022, is joined by, among others, Senator Dave Min (D-Irvine) and former Democratic Congressman Harley Rouda. A who’s who of notable politicians have also jumped into Schiff’s 30th district race, including Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-North Hollywood), LA Board of Education member Nick Melvoin, state Senator Anthony Portantino (D-La Canada Flintridge), former Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer, West Hollywood Mayor Sepi Shyne and actor Ben Savage.

However, the District 12 race is currently up in the air. Right now, there is a huge question mark next to Pelosi, as many don’t know if she’ll run again following giving up her Democratic leadership role following losing the Speakership after the midterms. A spokesperson for Pelosi said that she has filed for re-election next year, but with her being out of the House leadership and her husband still recovering after being attacked by an assailant in their San Francisco home last year, many think a 2024 re-election campaign isn’t in the cards.

“Speaker Emerita Pelosi plans to serve her entire term in Congress, representing the people of San Francisco,” Congresswoman Pelosi’s office said last week. “And in order to help win back the House for the Democrats, she has filed for re-election.”

Many, including Pelosi’s daughter, Christine Pelosi, former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and Assemblyman Matt Haney (D-San Francisco) have all been mentioned in the past as likely candidates. But the most notable, Senator Wiener, took the largest step last week when he opened up an exploratory committee. While he has said that he would only run if she steps down, his words also echoed Congressman Schiff’s early on in the Senate race, who ultimately entered the race weeks before Feinstein officially dropped out.

“Speaker Emerita Pelosi is one of the most effective and transformational leaders we’ve ever had,” said Weiner last week. “It’s a privilege to serve our community as State Senator, and I look forward to continuing to work day and night for the people of San Francisco.”

“I am and will continue to be grateful to have Pelosi as my representative in Congress for as long as she is willing to serve. But I’m exploring my options for a potential congressional run in the event she decides to step down.”

A possible 2024 House run for Wiener

As San Francisco is virtually guaranteed a win by a Democrat, the fact that many prominent Democrats are chomping at the bit to run as soon as Pelosi is out isn’t surprising. What is surprising are candidates preparing for a run, even if they say it is only in the eventuality that Pelosi drops out. Pelosi’s popularity in her San Francisco district is sky high, managing to win with at least 75% of the vote, even against fellow Democrats, in nearly every House race she has been in since the late 1980’s.

However, as many experts point out, someone like Weiner waiting in the wings could be a game changer.

“If Weiner enters the race against Pelosi, it would be her stiffest competition since her initial special election win in 1987,” explained Bay Area  political strategist Jane Napoli to the Globe on Monday. “He’s extremely popular in the city too, especially amongst the lefter-leaning crowd. Problem is, Pelosi is popular too, and has the sympathy vote still going for her with her husband. That can still be strong in the primary.”

“If Weiner doesn’t run, Pelosi gets it baring some major event. Simple as that. And if she doesn’t run, well, you’ve seen how many people are interested in. With the committee in place, Weiner would be in a good position to run and would be a step ahead of the others, but not by much.”

“But, if it really is a Pelosi vs. Weiner sort of situation, even if it is a battle of wills to get her not to run, it can be interesting. A more centrist Democrat or Republican, while having no chance in the primary election, could be that decisive factor in a primary. Republicans routinely get 15% or 20% of the vote in San Francisco elections. In a primary between two big Democrats, or a bunch running for an open seat, the GOP could actually be in a powerful position. Their candidate can choose who they want to focus on and chip away at candidates they really don’t like. Again, they won’t win. But they can sure as hell influence who will make the runoff.”

“And that’s the situation Weiner and Pelosi are in right now. They are both being polite about it in the press releases, but below that are people who want that seat or want to keep it. And no one is saying that they won’t run right now, not even out of respect. This is one to really keep an eye on.”

Candidates for the district are expected to be finalized in the coming months, including more firmer decisions from Pelosi and Weiner.