Arizona Primary: GOP Leads Early Votes as Hobbs Heavy Spending Draws Fire

Arizona voters head to the polls Tuesday, July 21, for the state’s 2026 primary election amid a surge in early voting and ongoing questions about Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs’ campaign finances and past controversies.

 As of Monday evening, more than 802,935 early ballots had been returned statewide — representing about 18.5% of registered voters. Republicans accounted for 46.3% of those ballots, Democrats 43.9%, and independents or others 9.7%. This marks a narrower GOP advantage compared to prior cycles, with both parties mobilizing for competitive down-ballot races and the high-profile Republican gubernatorial primary. 

🚨ARIZONA PRIMARY🚨

For the past 9 drops, REP returns have OUTNUMBERED DEM returns!⁰⁰Today’s drop had the largest R v D split seen this Primary!⁰⁰JULY 20: 🔴+8,577⁰
JULY 17: 🔴+2,384
⁰JULY 16: 🔴+2,511⁰⁰JULY 15: 🔴+5,153⁰⁰JULY 14: 🔴+2,198⁰⁰JULY 13: 🔴+3,091

JULY… pic.twitter.com/xL1sJ2IbrI

— Matthew C Martinez (@mcmartinezaz) July 20, 2026

Incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs faces no Democratic primary challenger for renomination. Her narrow 2022 victory over Republican Kari Lake by less than one percentage point set the stage for what promises to be a contentious general election matchup.

Recent campaign finance filings have drawn sharp criticism of Hobbs’ spending. In the second quarter of 2026 (April 1–June 30), Hobbs raised approximately $2.6 million but spent $7.4 million—a burn rate her Republican critics have labeled excessive. She ended the period with roughly $2.4 million cash on hand. 

Republican frontrunner U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs’ campaign issued a pointed statement: 

“Katie Hobbs lit $7.4M on fire during the second quarter of the 2026 cycle, stumbling into the general election after a 281% burn rate in the previous quarter. Hobbs’ fundraising lead over Congressman Andy Biggs shrank by nearly $5M and is now roughly a $1M cash on hand advantage, a pitiful number for an incumbent governor who has held statewide office for nearly a decade.” 

The heavy outlays reportedly funded a high-dollar advertising blitz touting Hobbs’ record as governor. This comes amid broader questions about her administration’s fiscal management.

On the Republican side, the gubernatorial primary features four candidates, with U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs (AZ-05) as the clear frontrunner. Recent polling shows Biggs lapping the field, with support around 60% or higher among likely GOP primary voters and a commanding lead over U.S. Rep. David Schweikert (AZ-01) and lesser-known challengers Ken Miceli and Scott Neely. 

Biggs, a Trump ally, has emphasized border security and conservative priorities. No Republican has lost a statewide primary in Arizona while carrying Donald Trump’s endorsement. Prediction markets and limited polling reinforce Biggs’ strong position heading into Tuesday. The winner will face Hobbs in November in what analysts describe as a competitive race in the battleground state.

Hobbs’ campaign spending concerns add to a string of prior allegations against her administration. As previously reported by the California Globe, Arizona House Republicans escalated an investigation into alleged pay-to-play scandals involving Hobbs and Attorney General Kris Mayes, retaining independent counsel to examine claims of improper influence in state contracting. 

In November 2025, Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen signaled readiness to pursue impeachment proceedings amid pay-to-play and prosecutorial allegations targeting Hobbs and Mayes. 

Hobbs has also faced criticism over budget battles and vetoes, including her rejection of a Republican-backed budget proposal that she described as unbalanced while Republicans accused her of mismanagement and prioritizing certain spending over taxpayer relief. 

The Arizona Democratic Party has struggled financially as well, entering the second quarter of 2026 with a negative cash balance exceeding $720,000 and nearing $1 million in debt—even as it funneled significant resources to groups tied to Hobbs’ orbit. 

Other notable races include the Republican primary for Attorney General (featuring Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen and attorney Rodney Glassman) and Secretary of State (State Rep. Alexander Kolodin vs. former GOP Chair Gina Swoboda). 

Multiple U.S. House districts also hold primaries, with open seats created by Biggs’ and Schweikert’s gubernatorial bids. 

Early voting began June 24, with mail ballots issued and in-person options available through Monday. Polls close Tuesday at 7 p.m. local time, with initial results expected that evening.

Both parties are pushing last-minute turnout efforts, particularly in the GOP gubernatorial contest where Biggs enjoys strong grassroots and organizational support from groups like Turning Point Action.

Arizona’s shift to an earlier July primary date (from the traditional early August) has compressed the timeline, setting up a direct path to the November general election. As voters finalize their choices, the combination of early ballot trends and Hobbs’ campaign spending disclosures and financial scandals, will likely fuel debate heading into what remains one of the most closely watched gubernatorial races in the country.