Democrat Adam Gray Defeats Rep. John Duarte By 187 Votes

Vote counting in California’s 13th Congressional District election wrapped up on Tuesday, one month after the November 5th Election, giving a very narrow win to former State Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) over Congressman John Duarte (R-CA). But there are questions over allowing the count to include votes that arrive up to a week after election day, and counting curated votes now likely to be front and center over the next two years before the mid-terms.

During the 2022 midterms, the 13th Congressional district, which spans the San Joaquin Valley, all of Merced County, most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin Counties, was the closest House race in the country. Modesto pistachio farmer and businessman John Duarte managed to get a surprise victory in the district, defeating Gray by 564 votes. The race wasn’t even called until early December thanks to the harrowingly close figures. This only encouraged Gray to run in 2024, sure that he would be victorious the second time around.

Initially, 2024 didn’t look much different. The primary decided it would be Gray and Duarte yet again, with every election prediction hub labeling the race as a toss-up. Polls showed that Gray had a narrow 46% to 45% lead with a 9% undecided vote and 5.6% margin of error going into election day. Gray also ran on more “DINO” and moderate stances than in 2022, to appeal to centrist and undecided voters. However, Gray was hit particularly hard in the weeks before Election Day following new information revealed that he had given approximately $40,000 to family members from previous campaign funds. Duarte, meanwhile, managed to win debates and shored up critical centrist and Latino support. Donald Trump helping to reawaken the GOP in California also brought in support.

On election day, initial results  showed that surge. Duarte was up over Gray 56,785 to 53,596, or 51.4% to 48.6% with only about half the vote in. Like many other races, it was expected that mail-in votes would melt away some of his lead, with Gray possibly even coming out ahead the next week. But the updated results from the state on the 14th were a bit of a surprise. Duarte stood at 79,456 votes and Gray at 75,693 with a total of 73% of the vote in. In terms of percentages, it was 51.2% to 48.8%. This led a few outlets to begin calling the race, and many others expected to do so at the next tally.

However, in the next week votes for Gray seemed to pour in, leading many to back off calling Duarte the victor. In late November, updates had the race grow closer grew closer, with Duarte only up 101,217 votes to 100,866, or, 50.1% to 49.9%. Then with Gray finally pulling ahead with the last mail-in votes being counted, 104,503 votes to Duarte’s 104,321 votes.

The closeness of the race, and California’s decision to continue counting votes that arrived up to 7 days past election day, has caused the Republican National Committee (RNC) to file lawsuits against California. The 1 month to allow counting of curated and late votes also became a cause celebre, with even President elect Donald Trump weighing in on the issue. Many Republicans have also said that the 13th District, as well as the 45th district where Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA) lost, had been decided not on the election day vote count, but through late and curated ballots that in most other states would be illegal to count.

“It is absurd for California to accept ballots by mail up to 7 days after Election Day and take almost a month to count them,” said RNC Chairman Michael Whatley last week. “The RNC, alongside the California Republican Party, will continue to fight aggressively to force all states to stop accepting ballots after Election Day.”

Nonetheless, counting continued until Tuesday when the final total of 105,554 votes to 105,367 votes was announced. On X, Gray said after the votes were in “We always knew that this race would be as close as they come, and we’re expecting a photo-finish this year, too. I’m honored to become the Congressman-elect for California’s 13th Congressional District. This district is ready for independent and accountable leadership that always puts the Valley’s people ahead of partisan politics.”

https://twitter.com/AdamGrayCA/status/1864120626782371866

Duarte, meanwhile, conceded gracefully, saying on Tuesday that “That’s how it goes. I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t plan on being in Congress forever.”

Duarte also didn’t rule out running again, potentially setting up a third matchup between the lawmakers in 2026. While the House seat became another one to flip parties this year in California, it wasn’t a total win for Democrats. The GOP still has control of the House short-term, and long-term, the 13th District showed a growth in GOP registered voters this year, likely making the 2026 race close as well.

However, it is the late and curated voting counting one month after election day that isn’t going away.

“A lot of people are furious about this,” Anne Granger, a researcher who keeps track of close House races in Western states, told the Globe Wednesday. “Only California takes this long because of their laws that allow all these late votes to be counted. And don’t expect this to be the last you heard of this, especially if a few seats flip flop in the next few years.

“People will be pushing for a hard deadline so we know the results of even the closest races within a few weeks. California is rebounding in registered Republicans, and the Democratic Party knows it. Keeping this in place is another safeguard so that they can win in close races. Late votes tend to sway Democratic as we’ve seen, and they don’t want to lose that advantage.”