Former SF Mayor Holds Narrow Lead Over SF Mayor London Breed In Latest San Francisco Mayoral Poll

According to a new poll by Impact Research, former San Francisco Mayor Mark Farrell is currently leading the San Francisco Mayoral race with 23%, followed closely by Mayor London Breed with 21% and Levi Strauss heir and CEO of the non-profit Tipping Point Community Daniel Lurie with 20%. The poll was also released roughly 12 hours before the first Mayoral debate between the 5 major candidates.

Previous polls have shown a close race between Farrell and Breed. In the first poll released in February, Farrell was up by two points with 20% against Breed’s 18%, followed by Lurie with 16% and Supervisor Ahsha Safai with 8%.However, the addition of San Francisco Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin entering the race in April shook things up. Despite sinking in popularity polls, the controversial Peskin allowed Breed to move up in the next Mayoral polls.

In May, an FM3 poll found that, in a ranked-choice vote, Breed would lead with 21%, followed by 16% for both Farrell and Lurie, 12% for Peskin and 7% for Safai. With Undecided votes not being an option, Breed only rose higher, with 29% of the vote, ahead of Lurie and Farrell with 23% of the vote, 16% for Peskin and 9% for Safai. In the final one-on-one ranked choice vote, Breed held with a narrow 51%-49% lead over Farrell.

However, Breed has slipped in approval polls only further in the past month. Pulling out the the first Mayoral debate and eventually causing its cancellation didn’t help Breed’s case for many. Neither did discouraging homeless reports showing a growth of homelessness in the city. This led to the Impact Research poll on Wednesday showing Farrell mounting a strong comeback.

According to the poll, which was commissioned by the Farrell campaign, Farrell is now ahead in a ranked choice vote with 23%, followed by Breed with 21%, Lurie with 20%, Peskin with 17%, Safai with 4%, 5% someone else, and 11% undecided. In a one on one ranked choice vote, Farrell leads by a wide margin with 57% against Breed’s 43%. The poll itself also went into why there was such a big turnaround for Farrell. According to the poll, only 16% of voters in San Francisco have said that things in the city are going in the right direction, compared to 46% saying the wrong direction and 34% being mixed.

Favorability also showed some surprising results. Based on pure favorability, Lurie actually came out on top, with 39% of voters giving a favorable impression, followed by 27% giving an unfavorable impression. In a close second was Farrell, with 36% favorable and 30% unfavorable. Breed was next with 32% favorable, but also with a whopping 61% unfavorable. Peskin proved to be similar to Breed, garnering 26% favorable and 50% unfavorable. Safai rounded out the top 5 candidates with 17% favorable and 36% unfavorable.

“Former interim Mayor Farrell is in a strong position to win the Mayor’s race, and has a wide path to victory,” said Impact Research President Molly Murphy on Wednesday. “San Francisco voters have an overall favorable view of Farrell, and he still has room to grow as voters assess the candidates and get to know him more closely. It is a tough year to be an incumbent, with fewer than one in five voters saying things in San Francisco are going in the right direction and over two-thirds of voters giving Mayor Breed a negative job rating.”

Farrell commented on the poll, noting later on Wednesday, “Our campaign has been in first place since launch, but we are taking nothing for granted and have no intention of easing off the gas. San Franciscans want an effective, experienced leader as their next Mayor who can help get our City back on track. I understand the challenges our City faces and have the vision and bold policies to create a safer, cleaner, and stronger San Francisco. With just under five months until Election Day, our campaign is right where we want to be. Over 70% of our grassroots donors are San Franciscans, we have substantial cash on hand, and we have over 100 more scheduled events to make sure our message reaches every corner of the City.”

A new poll that our campaign commissioned shows us in first place and beating Mayor Breed 57% to 43% in the final round of ranked-choice voting.

It's a tight race, but we can win with your help.

Get involved today + help spread the word: https://t.co/1ni0vbqg04 pic.twitter.com/kcO5iZsLUV

— Mark Farrell (@MarkFarrellSF) June 12, 2024

While the poll was commissioned by the Farrell campaign, the numbers themselves showed that, even with any bias, Farrell is back in the lead in the race.

“Polls commissioned by the candidates tend to have up to a 5% bias because of how some questions can be worded or by giving a lean towards different demographics,”  said political advisor Sharon Lee to the Globe on Wednesday. “But even with that, Farrell is still out on top in this very close race. He and Breed look like the ones to really leg it out. But look at those numbers again. Lurie and Peskin are both very close too. Peskin himself is very polarizing, so while he may get a lot of people against him, his views also get a lot of liberal San Franciscans on his side.”

“This poll also shows that Safai is still largely unknown by voters and definitely the runt of the litter. Peskin is a surprising fourth considering his clout as Supervisor President, but his past and views are holding him back. You can only go so far with a nickname like ‘The Ayatollah of North Beach.’ Lurie is a bit surprising, as he is inexperienced with no elected experience. But because San Francisco has had so many previous Mayors come up through the Board or other government institutions, Lurie’s background suddenly becomes favorable to many.”

“Breed is popular with some, but her management of the city has been questionable to say the least. And with Farrell, there is some unsureness coming from him stepping out of the light too long, but he was Mayor before and still knows the city well.”

“Unless something big happens later this year, expect this race to remain close between Farrell, Lurie, and Breed. Especially Farrell and Breed.”

More polls are expected soon, since the first Mayoral debate is due to be held on Wednesday evening.