Garvey Overtakes Porter For Second Place In U.S. Senate Race

According to a new SurveyUSA poll released this week, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) moved ahead of Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) in the U.S. Senate race, with Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) staying in the lead by 7 points.

Total figures show that Schiff is out ahead with 22%, with Garvey overtaking Porter for second place for the first time in the race with 15%. Porter, along with Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) are also now tied for third with 12%. In a distant fifth place is lawyer Eric Early (R) with 6%, while two candidates are tied for sixth place with 5% each: Businessman James Bradley (R) and TV anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D). Undecided voters also continue to make up a large block of votes, coming in with 20%.

Schiff continues to lead most demographics, albeit with a few surprises in the SurveyUSA poll. This includes Lee leading the 18-34 age demographic, Garvey out ahead in the 50-64 demo, and Lee also ahead of Schiff amongst black voters. However, when those being polled were told they could choose as many candidates as possible, Garvey dropped to 4th place with 25%, with Schiff coming at 37%, Porter 29%, and Lee 28%, highlighting just how split Democrats are in the race.

Compared to recent polls, the biggest changes come between Garvey, Porter and Lee. When contrasted with the two latest polls (PPIC and Emerson), Schiff has continued to climb, with the November Emerson poll having him at 16% and the December PPIC poll putting him at 21%. Porter, in contrast, had moved slightly, going from 13% to 16% between the two previous polls. Garvey, who had plateaued at 10% in the two previous polls, shot up dramatically in this weeks poll. And Lee, who had only been at 9% and 8%, finally saw the turnaround her camp had been hoping for, moving up to 12% this week.

Garvey moves up to second

“Everyone had been expecting another one-two Schiff and Porter finish,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Friday. “But support for Porter has been one of the more wide ranging and has been hard to pin down. One poll has her leading Schiff, another shows that Garvey is almost beating her for second. Everyone else has remained fairly consistent except her. And it showed again in this poll. That’s what happens when you have several top name Democrats running in the same race. They’re all fighting over the same voters.

“Meanwhile, look at Garvey. He has been slowly consolidating GOP voters, moderates, and undecided voters in a more low-key way. He’s also proven himself to not be far right, which has won over undecided voters. And look at what happened. A five point bump and currently in second place over Porter.

“Lee also had a big turnaround. She hit double digits in a poll for the first time since June. She had been getting a lot of good press lately, and for Democrats, her stance on the Israel-Hamas war has been winning many Democrats on the left over. This, along with her lefter leanings, took away some of Porter’s support.

“We need to keep in mind that this is only one poll and that figures can still change. Nonetheless, for the GOP, this poll is really encouraging that Garvey will make it past the primary. Porter and Lee, who are sinking a lot of money into this and gave up House seats to run, are not jazzed to being behind Garvey. Especially Porter, as she thought she was the one to do this and had been leading a lot early on.

“Most people thought this was going to be a Schiff-Porter race. But they didn’t count on the 74-year-old first baseman still being able to run.”

More polls are expected to come in soon, with the Primary election now less than three months away.