Garvey at First Pitch Dinner, Michigan State University. (Photo: msutoday.msu.edu)
Garvey v. Schiff: California’s 2024 U.S. Senate Race is Closer Than You Think
The latest poll is way below all other projections
By Evan Symon, July 29, 2024 2:57 pm
For the last several months, polls have shown that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) has a commanding lead over former baseball star Steve Garvey (R). The first poll in March, right after the primary, had Schiff up 61% to 37%. The June poll barely changed, going 62% to 37%. The latest poll earlier this month had Schiff moving up to 64% to 33%. Considering that the 2022 Senate election had Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) beating Mark Meuser (R) 61% to 39% and former Senator Dianne Feinstein defeating Republican Elizabeth Emken in 2012 62% to 38%, the projections seem…off.
So what is going on? First, there’s always that pesky margin of error. Meuser had similar numbers in polling at the same time then shot back up as the election neared. Second, is the polling itself. All three of the polls for the General election for the Senate have been through the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), which tends to lean left.
Election experts have noted that PPIC polls always have several more points towards Democratic candidates, and prior elections have shown them to be off base. How off have they been? Well, with only a few weeks before the Primary this year, they were projecting that Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) would defeat Garvey for the second slot in the race. They were the only ones doing that by that point, and only a few weeks later, Garvey beat Porter for the second slot by 1.2 million votes 31.5% to 15.3%. Garvey was even with a few thousand of beating Schiff, whom the PPIC had pegged for a landslide victory. So, they aren’t exactly reliable.
And looking out more broadly, there are signs that it is a lot closer than people think. First, Schiff, instead of kicking back and letting ads do the work like most candidates with an easy win ahead do, is out on the campaign trail like he is facing off against a fellow Democrat. Second, straw polls have been showing a different story. KTLA’s viewer poll last week, which should be noted is not scientific and is simply based on viewer votes rather than more planned voter cross-section, has Garvey actually ahead. It’s not the type of poll that can be used officially, but as an unofficial gauge, there is a definite pull for Garvey out there.
Polling Seems Off
Recent events also seem to cancel each other out. While the GOP saw a bump in support following the assassination attempt of Donald Trump in mid-July, VP Kamala Harris taking over as the Democratic candidate for Joe Biden, which Schiff was one of the earliest voices for on Capitol Hill, undid all that momentum for voters migrating to the GOP. Schiff might get a few points for being one of the people leading the charge for Biden to drop out, but how Harris does in the next few months can also change that up.
This all begs the question: Where are the two polling now? The Globe talked to several pollsters across California. The lowest bars were not 33% but rather around 36%, which is about where Garvey is in RealClear Politics aggregate polling right now. The highest bars were in the low 40s. Still not high enough to win, but showing the slow and steady comeback of Republicans in California that the last several elections have showed and confirmed through state registration data.
“Garvey is not at 33%, but neither is he at 45%,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Monday. “You raise a lot of good points, and honestly, he is between 38% to 40% right now all said and done. You have to factor in all those undecided voters and voters on the fence.”
“Harris coming in can mess with this, but as conservative voters have showed, they’ll come out, even if they are likely to lose, just to prove a point. Oh, and because California has a lot of close local elections, House elections, and Propositions coming up. I think 40% is, if not the goal, then the new watermark to shoot for. Show they are getting back on track. The PPIC polls look off, and we really need Berkeley or other places to start doing these. That KTLA poll shouldn’t be put down as a countable poll, but like you said, it is showing that support for Garvey is very alive, especially in L.A.”
“Garvey isn’t going to win barring a huge scandal or something. But what he can show is that the GOP is creeping back more and more. I think the non-PPIC polls will show him closer to that.”
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February 29, 2024 -
As long as the criminal Democrat mafia controls the state’s elections with voter fraud and rigged voting machines, the polls are just as fake as the elections?
GET A LIFE!!! EVERYTHING IS FAKE AND RIGGED WHEN YOU DONT WIN!!! MAGA TEARS BE FALLING IN NOVEMBER
@King, GET A BRAIN. Maduro controls elections in Venezuela by using Dominion voting systems…..just like in COMMIFORNIA. That’s why Maduro and Marxist Crazifornia Dems always win. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/venezuela-election-protests-spread-maduro-claims-us-backed-color-revolution-driving
Spot on
Well considering the GOP’s lies and babysitting their multi criminal trump after he told the world recently he knew he lost by “whiskers” i’d say the GOP will have their boy up for murder due to the Jan6th insurrection trump initiated saying the election was stolen. A woman and a few police died from trumps lie! Put him in jail NOW!
Garvey is counting on name recognition from his Dodger days. Any LA polling will be harshly skewed by baseball fans.
Didn’t WE THE PPL learn anything by putting actors and unqualified coaches that feel they can stop “raises” and or advancement because they don’t believe in the Evil like trump, reagan and that fool that thinks he’s God and won’t move any one of our Servicemen forward in raises till they believe his holier than thou bs. he isn’t God so HE needs to stand tf down!
Anyone living in the Demo run California should be voting Demo Rats out. This once great state is sinking ship. Vote for Garvey.
your so right
Steve Garvey has shown to be a good patriot and a good human with great roots to Cali and love for it . And showed me what he wants for the people of California which is change. He didn’t do any name calling or bullying like Adam shciff did to him. Cali needs new blood in politics not same old people ever year with promises and no results. Change California Change!!!!
You aren’t even a Californian – no native says “Cali”
Adam shift is a proven liar.. as is Harris Shift for one with held evidence in the trump . Impeachment with basically no repercussions.. And him and Harris and quite frankly the whole Democratic party have been lying about Biden mental health for years How can any of them be voted in what does that say to other countries we will Lie to you as well , Ior tell our youth it’s ok to lie if it’s to beat Trump.. I may not like the rederic but l like the results lower interest rates lower grocery bills And Dam sure lower gas prices .. for get your personal views of a person what’s better for every wallet in this country and i dont want Drag shows in our schools I want them in bars with peaple over 21 have cocktails and a good time
well said John.
36%. 42%. Does it matter? It’s still only high 30’s and low 40’s. Every election after the Meg Whitman election, had Republicans running below 45% in gubernatorial and Senate races. Republicans are not having a slow and steady comeback. Latinos a sizeable portion of the electorate see the GOP as political enemies ever since Pete Wilson threw that anti immigration measure in the 90’s which ended up galvanizing a new generation of Latino activists like Kevin De Leon and Wendy Carrillo. Only way to come back is embracing pro business and pro immigration (libertarian-lite?) Republicans.
Garvey went too far right. If he’d been a Schwarzenegger style republican he could have won but being anti-choice, pro-Maga, he doesn’t stand a chance.
We are a retired community in Carlsbad CA. Our membership is over 800 residents and we have invited Republication to speak to our residents. Past speakers are Carl Demaio and Matt Gunderson plus other educators.
We have an opening on Oct 9th and I was wondering if Steve ia available and would like to address our members.
My phone number is 408 202-1757.