Governor’s Office Claims California 2nd Most Popular State for People Moving To in 2024

Governor Gavin Newsom gaslights again: The Globe received an email from our friend Brand Richards (He/Him), Deputy Director for Rapid Response in the governor’s office, crowing about a new study by the National Association of Realtors which he claims demonstrates that “California was the second most popular state for Americans to move to in 2024.” (emphasis Brandon)

Here is what Brandon emailed:

I wanted to be sure you saw this new study from the National Association of Realtors:

• • “California was the second most popular state for Americans to move to in 2024, according to a newly released report from the National Association of Realtors.”

And in case you missed it, Newsweek was the first to break this news: California Sees Surge in People Moving to the State. Some notable quotes:

• • California “remains one of the most desired states for people to move to in the United States,”
  • “the surge in California moves is notable and likely reflects California’s powerhouse economic status, with thriving industries in tech, entertainment and agriculture”

 Looking forward to your coverage on this given your past, close, detailed coverage of California’s population movements.

There is no link to the new study in Brandon’s email – he just underlined “new study” and bolded it.

We reviewed the Newsweek article which “broke this news,” and there is no link to the study in it either. We emailed the author at Newsweek for the study link, but did not hear back.

When we searched for “new study from the National Association of Realtors: “California was the second most popular state for Americans to move to in 2024,” the Newsweek article comes up #2, and this SF Gate article is #1:

Even the #3 article is “California is losing thousands of workers… here’s where they are moving.”

We searched again for “national association of realtors, study of California Sees Surge in People Moving to the State.” Here is what popped up – the Newsweek article and one at SF Gate completely refuting it:

We went to the National Association of Realtors website and looked at their most recent studies including this from October 17, 2024, “Job Relocation Trends and the Impact on Local Real Estate Markets,” which actually found California is not one of the states with net job migration gains, and is in fact, the worst as their graph shows:

“Larger states naturally have more people moving in and out, so their migration numbers are often much higher simply due to the sheer volume of residents,” the NAR reports. “To address this, we computed the share of inbound moves for job switchers by state. This metric reflects the proportion of total job moves in a state that come from other states.”

This is important because another organization reports:

The five US states that lost the most residents in 2023 were California(-690,502), Florida (-514,259), New York (-483,523), Texas (-480,822) and Illinois (-297,765).

Despite seeing high migration turnovers, Florida, Texas and California were also among the states welcoming the most new people from other parts of the country.

In the year analyzed, Texas was the most popular place for Californians to relocate to, while Texans also favored California over any other state.

The states with the largest population have the most inbound and outbound migration – just by sheer numbers. So Brandon is manipulating the message rather grossly.

“Larger states naturally have more people moving in and out, so their migration numbers are often much higher simply due to the sheer volume of residents,” the NAR reports. “To address this, we computed the share of inbound moves for job switchers by state. This metric reflects the proportion of total job moves in a state that come from other states.”

South Carolina tops the list, with 57% of its job movers coming from out of state. This is mostly attributed to its rapidly growing economy and job market.

Maine had an impressive share of inbound job moves, with 56% of all job relocations coming from other states. Though it has a smaller population, the state’s strong job creation—especially in health care and emerging industries like renewable energy.

Montana’s high share of inbound job moves (55%) highlights how attractive this state is to professionals. The state’s economy has created about 11% more jobs than before the pandemic. Montana ranks as the fifth fastest state for job growth post-pandemic. Montana’s relatively lower cost of living attracts professionals from higher-cost states who are willing to trade urban living for a more rural environment. Eleven percent of those job switchers come from Washington, and 9% come from California.

California is also losing the most job switchers according to the NAR – again, because it also has the largest population. But there are other reasons people leave: high taxes and high housing costs, and a hostile regulatory environment for businesses. However, California also has some of the most beautiful weather in the country – a big draw for many inbound migrants.

Here’s what the NAR says about this:

While California remains a major job market, the state saw nearly 87,000 professionals leave for opportunities elsewhere, surpassing its job inflows of about 69,000. High housing costs—particularly in areas like San Francisco and Los Angeles—coupled with a high cost of living, have driven many workers to relocate to more affordable states like Texas and Arizona. California’s high state income taxes push workers to states with more favorable tax policies, such as Texas. Specifically, 14% of professionals found jobs in Texas, and 9% in Arizona. Washington (8%) and Nevada (7%) are a couple of other popular destinations for Californian professionals.

Additionally, while trying to locate the NAR study Brandon Richards cites, we found another damning article about California from KTLA:

It didn’t happen.

Now, with just two months left in the year, the association admits it was “fooled” and has downgraded its forecast for a second time, now expecting just a 7% year-over-year increase.

That is significant.

The SF Gate article also references the NAR report we found, and concludes:

“But the Golden State is still losing more workers than it’s gaining, according to an October report from the National Association of Realtors that used U.S. Census Bureau data as of third-quarter 2023. California lost almost 87,000 professionals in 2023, compared with the approximately 69,000 that entered the state in the same time period. Study authors blame the state’s high housing costs, coupled with the lower state income taxes that many other nearby states offer those hunting for other job opportunities.

Brandon Richards (He/Him) is gaslighting us – the use of psychological manipulation to undermine a person’s faith in their own judgment, memory, or sanity. The question is, did he get Newsweek to run with a bogus story to bolster the Governor’s office BS? With no links to the study mentioned, it’s not a stretch to question it. And once again it appears that the governors office is lying and manufacturing the backup material.