New 2024 Senate Poll Shows Porter In Lead Once Again, Garvey Gaining Ground

According to a new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released over the weekend, Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) once again took the lead in the 2024 U.S. Senate race away from Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), while former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) became the first candidate to take the third-place spot away from Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA).

Polls over who should take over the late Senator Dianne Feinstein’s seat in the Senate had largely fallen into several trends since the summer. Every poll since August has shown Schiff, albeit narrowly, staying ahead of Porter in the race, including a September PPIC poll showing him to be 5 points ahead of her. Another trend has been no strong Republican emerging from the race, as lawyer Eric Early (R) and Businessman James Bradley (R) have never gotten above 7% in a poll since the expansion of the race in June. And finally, Lee has been on a major downturn. From her peak at polling at 13% in June, Lee has fallen to nearly 4th place, coming in with only 6.4% of the vote in a PPIC poll in September.

However, the new IGS poll upended all those recent trends this weekend. The poll found that Porter once again has a narrow lead over Schiff, with Porter receiving 17% of California voters support in late October, while Schiff only received 16% – his worst showing since June. Garvey, meanwhile, moved into a surprise 3rd place position with 10% of the poll vote, becoming the first GOP candidate to do so since had 18% in May when there were far fewer candidates and he was the only major GOP candidate in the race.

Lee, meanwhile, gained back some ground yet fell short of keeping up her top 3 placement, falling to 4th place with 9%. Rounding out the rest of the major candidates, Bradley maintained a 7%, Early received 4%, and both former tech executive Lexi Reese (D) and the newest candidate, TV anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D), got 1% of the poll vote. Undecided voters still reign supreme, however, as a critical total of 30% said that they didn’t know who to vote for in the primary just yet.

The poll also broke down where each candidate is landing in demographic support. Most tellingly for the poll is ideological support. Very liberal voters tended to side with Porter and Lee, with 36% of voters identifying as strongly liberal opting for Porter, way ahead of Schiff at 21% and Lee at 17%. Schiff, meanwhile, had a large lead over somewhat liberal and moderate voters. Finally, Garvey held top support in both the somewhat conservative and very conservative areas, although he did also have a smattering of support amongst moderate. Both Early and Bradley had their highest percentages of voters, both at 18%, in the very conservative camp.

“While Garvey’s candidacy seems to have made a splash among the state’s Republican voters, Porter and Schiff are still neck and neck at this point, and remain ahead of the rest of the field,” said IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora in an analysis. “Porter holds big leads among voters under age 50 while Schiff is the clear favorite of voters ages 65 or older. Lee dominates among the state’s Black voters and runs competitively among voters in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area and the state’s North Coast/Sierras region.”

Berkeley IGS Poll Release #2023-22: U.S. Senate race remains wide-open affair as candidate field expands.

To read the rest of the poll release, visit our website: https://t.co/Cl6lAIIRVM pic.twitter.com/HfQVvc7xLF

— Institute of Governmental Studies (@BerkeleyIGS) November 3, 2023

Election experts told the Globe on Monday that, while Schiff and Porter still lead, it isn’t at a comfortable distance any more.

Garvey surges ahead of Lee into third place, is only 5 points behind Schiff

“This poll showed that Garvey is quickly gaining ground in the race,” added Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe. “The last poll he was in in August had him at only 7%. It doesn’t seem like that big of a jump, but you also need to realize that he is a Republican in a crowded race even amongst GOP candidates, that he started late, and that there are still nearly as many undecided voters since that last IGS poll. It’s encouraging, and he’s starting to zero in on Schiff in second place now. Oh, and he’s ahead of Lee now. Her team is probably not happy that they are now also losing to a Republican.

“Schiff and Porter are kind of cannibalizing each other to stay ahead here. They don’t like spending a lot of money this early, especially if they need to face each other this November. Garvey and Lee both threw a curve in October. Garvey is quickly gaining ground, and Lee is retaking votes. We’re less than 4 months out, and yet things are changing pretty quickly.

“For the GOP, the best bet is Garvey at this point. Early and Bradley are doing respectable numbers, but if they give that 11% to Garvey before the primary, Garvey can make headlines as coming out on top of the primary. Garvey is a bit more on the moderate side, but when push comes to shove, GOP voters would still pick him over any Democrat. And with Garvey having appeal to moderates, as well as sports fans, yeah, he is the best shot.

“For Democrats, they’re not panicking overall because they still have the combined votes for a General election. But for primary candidates, this is a slog. If Garvey or another Republican manages to get in, the election will likely be easy for their candidate. I mean, strange things can happen or a scandal can pop up that changes the tide, but realistically their person wins. The GOP can still have the winner in the primary and can still embarrass the party by having a good turnout however. A lot of GOP voters will be coming out in the primary don’t forget, and the Democrats don’t want a Republican in the general to have a good showing. If a GOP candidate win the primary then has the best outcome for a GOP Senate candidate in decades, Democrats will not be happy.

“If it is Democrat v. Democrat, then both candidates just pour money into the race and their war chests get depleted. Look at what happened in 2018 with the Feinstein-(Former state Senator Kevin)De Leon matchup. Feinstein barely hung on with 54% of the vote, and she lost around $800,000 in campaign funds when her expenditures went above her fundraising. She spent over $16 million to beat KDL, a man who, today, has been reduced to being a City Councilman who was nearly recalled over using racist language.

“And neither Porter nor Schiff are coming in as incumbents, so they’ll both be spending a ton. Especially Schiff, as he is really good at fundraising.

“This poll really is saying a lot. Schiff and Porter should absolutely be afraid of Garvey. He’s representing a Republican resurgence in California. Even 5 years ago, saying that would have been laughable. But now one of them is ahead of Lee in the polls and threatening the top candidates in the primary.”