New Emerson College Democrats-Only Poll Finds Harris Is Still Favored by Democrats in 2026 Gubernatorial Race

According to a new Emerson College poll of registered Democrat voters, released on Thursday, former Vice President Kamala Harris is still the favorite candidate in the 2026 California gubernatorial race amongst registered Democratic voters, beating out all other candidates with 57% of the vote.

Polling has been scarce since the summer of 2024 when polls first came out. Even more, every poll has included both declared and speculative candidates. However, what is known is that once Harris and former Congresswoman Katie Porter were added in as candidates, they were suddenly the frontrunners. A Tulchin Research poll in August, which didn’t include either Harris or Porter, found that both  State Senator and 2022 Gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa were leading with 13% each. Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis and Fox New Host and former advisor to UK Prime Minister David Cameron Steve Hilton followed with 10% each, Former State Controller Betty Yee with 7%, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond and Senator Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) Atkins and Thurmond with 4% respectively. A whopping 40% were undecided.

Then there was the September USC poll, which found Villaraigosa to be the leader of the declared candidate poll and Porter leading the speculative candidate poll. According to the declared candidate poll, Villaraigosa led with 7.6% in favor of him becoming Governor. Kounalakis and Yee tied for second with 4.5%. The speculative poll showed that the leader, by a wide margin, was Porter, with 14%. The next closest candidate, Dahle, garnered only 5.3%.

The last poll before Thursday, a November IGS poll, was also the first to include Harris, and she wound up at the top of the poll by a huge margin. According to the poll, 46% of all voters in California said they would support her gubernatorial bid on some level, with 72% of Democrats saying that they would be very likely or somewhat likely to consider Harris for governor.

Since the last poll came out, Harris has been evasive when asked about running in 2026. According to aides, she is currently split on whether or not she should run for Governor in 2026 or run for President in 2028. Since leaving the Vice Presidency Harris has remained in the public eye, seen visiting with wildfire victims in Los Angeles. At the same time, she has been ignored by the public in multiple occasions, like at a recent Los Angeles Lakers game where she received a chilly reception amongst fans. Nonetheless, she has remained the top speculative candidate for the past several months.

“I have been home for two weeks and three days,” said Harris when asked about a run for Governor during a visit to the Palisades wildfire area last Friday. “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them. I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”

Harris still on top in polling

On Thursday, the new Emerson poll showed that, once again, Harris is still seen as the most favored candidate in the race amongst Democratic voters, despite not even officially running yet. According to the poll, 57.4% of Democratic primary voters would vote for her for Governor today. The next closest, Porter, managed to get only 9.3%. The closest registered candidates are Kounalakis and Villaraigosa with 4% each. Undecided voters reached 17% in the race.

However, in a second poll without Harris, undecided voters shot up to 45%. 21% were shown to support Porter, 9% Villaraigosa, and 5% Kounalakis. Yee was a distant 4th, with 3.2%.

“Support for Harris is strongest among women (60%), Hispanics (61%), and Black voters (64%),” explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, on Thursday. “If Vice President Harris enters the primary, she would start as the clear favorite. Without Harris in the race, the primary is wide open. Former Rep. Porter leads the pack, performing well among voters with college degrees (26%) or postgraduate degrees (25%).”

It should be noted again that the poll only surveyed registered Democrats and didn’t include either Republicans or independents, with both being very unlikely to support Harris in any significant numbers. Both declared and speculative GOP candidates were also not asked about, despite Dahle, Hilton, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco getting more support than some major registered Democrats in previous polls.

Despite these limitations, it is clear that Democrats want Harris. If she doesn’t run, then they want Porter. And if Porter doesn’t run, then it is anyone’s game.

“The Emerson poll totally sandbagged non-Democrats, but it does show how popular Harris is as a candidate,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday. “Look at that undecided voter count. About half of Democrats wouldn’t know who to vote for if Harris isn’t a candidate, yet 57% would vote for her if she was. Let’s not kid ourselves here. Harris is a former Vice President and, at least amongst Democrats, can win and would likely win at least the primary. Porter came out strong too.

“Without them, Democrats would have no idea despite all of those major faces in the race. Republicans don’t know who to vote for yet, but that’s because not many have declared yet. The GOP tends to unify behind a candidate before election day in California, so they would all but certainly have one of the two slots in the primary. For Democrats, they’re waiting on the Harris and Porter announcements. After that, then it comes time to scramble.

“If Harris runs, it would make national news for sure, and it would be one of the most watched races in 2026. Former Vice Presidents don’t usually run for anything, and when they do, it’s big because it usually means they want another shot at the White House. Basically, it’s Harris, Porter, or one of the biggest Democratic in-fights we will ever see.”