Scott Baugh Retains Three Point Lead In Latest Poll

According to a new WPA Intelligence poll released on Monday, former Assemblyman and Orange County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh (R) remains three points ahead of Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County) in the Orange County based 47th Congressional District race for Congresswoman Katie Porter’s (D-CA) lame duck seat.

The 47th District, which forms a rough triangle going from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach to Northeastern Irvine, is one of the most sought after Districts in the Country because of it being such a toss up. The district is currently held by outgoing Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA). Porter narrowly defeated former Assemblyman and Orange County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh in 2022 51.7% to 48.3%. With such a close race, thanks in part to Congressional redistricting, Porter opted to run for the U.S. Senate in 2024 than try and retain her House seat. However, Porter finished a distant third in the Senate primary in March, leading to a wide open lame duck Congressional race.

As the district is the last of the big four taken by Democrats in the 2018 election not yet taken back by the GOP, considerable resources from both parties have been put into the election this year. And with Porter out and both parties fighting to be the majority party in the House once again, it has been even crazier than normal. The GOP candidate this year is Baugh, with the Democrats opting for Min. Both candidates have had a constant back and forth in the polls since last year, with new scandals putting one over the other. For example, Min got a DUI last year, which hurt him greatly in support. However, Baugh had slips of his own, such as backlash from “wokeism” comments he made in September of last year.

The Cook Political Report said that the District was still leaning towards Democrats earlier this year. Despite that outlook from many outlets, polls showed a different story of Baugh actually being ahead by a few points. While voters were affected by many factors such as the economy, cost of living, crime, homelessness, and affordable housing, the 47th also included the unusual factor of Min’s 2023 DUI being the deciding factor for many. As a result, Baugh has had a constant 1-2 point lead over Min all summer. Even the bump in support that the entrance of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Presidential candidate in other districts didn’t register in the 47th. The latest poll from last month showed that Baugh is three points ahead of Min going into the final weeks of the race, with only 5% of voters remaining undecided.

In the past month, things have only gone up for Baugh. While fundraising figures in the past month have shown Min being ahead in terms of both donations and money being spent, thanks in large part to the national party pouring money into the race, it was found that registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats in the district. Even more, Min has been struggling to get any more support thanks to his lingering DUI charges from last year. This was capped off with the poll on Monday, with it finding that Baugh is still firmly ahead in the race by three points, 43% to 40%, with 17% remaining undecided.

The poll also found that Baugh is doing better than or as good as Min with the usually Democratic leaning college educated voter bloc, with Baugh leading the some college demographic 50%-34%, Min being up by one point with college graduates 44% to 43%, and the two tied with post-grads 43%-43%. Amongst race, while Min leads with Asian voters, Baugh is ahead by 10 points with white voters and 14 points with Hispanic voters. There is also a narrowing gender gap for Baugh, with him 7 points ahead with men and Min now only two points ahead with women.

Overall, predictive modeling shows Baugh going up by 2 points with Undecided voters going up by 3 points. Meanwhile, Min is shown to be dropping by 5 points. Combined with last month’s USC poll, the two polls show Baugh ahead by three points for sure now, with more outlets switching predictions from a slight Democratic lean to a toss-up.

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National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesman Ben Petersen said on Monday that “Orange County voters are rallying behind Scott Baugh to lower taxes and fix the economy, stop the violent crime wave and secure the border. Extreme Sacramento Democrat politician Dave Min has made Orange County more dangerous and more expensive, and it’s clear voters are ready for change.”

While Min didn’t respond on Monday, Democrats continued to try to insinuate that Baugh had campaigned with the Huntington Beach Mayor, with the latter allegedly saying something antisemitic. However, despite this, Baugh has continued to stay over Min.

Malik Griffin, a Los Angeles polling analyst, told the Globe on Monday that “Baugh has been sort of the comeback kid this year. He lost to Porter last year, and now has been coming back more and more. I mean, his lead amongst Latino voters is incredible. The GOP has really been seeing gains with Latino voters this year, and Baugh’s district is helping prove that. Min is trying to energize Asian communities, as they are his bread and butter, but Baugh has a good number of them supporting him too.

“That large undecided voter percentage is a big question mark, but with Baugh 3 points ahead, Min will really need to reach those people to even have a shot. And that is looking more and more unlikely as Baugh’s support is going more and more into traditional Democratic bases. I wasn’t the one doing the polling, but a lot of voters are still put off that he had a DUI last year. More are also going with Trump and voting down ballot. Trump is actually now being projected to win more and more, and that is carrying over to here.”

Final polls in the 47th District are expected by the end of the month.