Taylor Swift, the Prop 50 Ballot Label and the 2026 Elections

Reading about the fanatical response to the engagement of singer Taylor Swift to football player Travis Kelce strangely brought back a memory of a panel discussion I participated in about 15 years ago on California’s initiative process. It also got me thinking about the current political debate over redistricting and the coming mid-term elections. Follow the thought process.

The panel discussion was sponsored the League of Women Voters and the California Supreme Court Historical Society put on by Zocalo Public Square. Prior to the panel, Zocalo staff members conducted a Q&A session with each participant, asking questions to elicit personality traits rather than policy ideas. One question I got was: What frustrates you? I answered: Celebrity worship!

When millions and millions rush to social media to express themselves on the coming Swift-Kelce nuptials I can say I’m not of that world. That goes for the puzzling – to me – debate from last week as well over the less than profound issue of changing the Cracker Barrel store logo.

But the truth is, passionate followers of celebrities are the voters who make important decisions on election day. (More on the relationship to the congressional seats battle and the celebrity-obsessed voters in a moment).

Relevant to California’s current political scene was my answer to a question on the initiative panel on what I would change with the initiative process. I said I would take away the power to title and summarize a ballot measure from the Attorney General’s office because the AG is a partisan figure who too often leans toward his or her friends and allies while writing the title and summary.

Lo and behold, it happened again when Attorney General Rob Bonta, a clear supporter of Gov. Gavin Newsom who promoted the measure, labeled Proposition 50, the ballot measure to change redistricting congressional seats in the state, as “temp0rary.”

News reports made it clear that polling by proponents for Proposition 50 found their potential vote is boosted by emphasizing that the redistricting change taking the process away from an independent commission is “temporary.” Sure enough, the word temporary is featured as the second word in the title and the second word in the summary.

Beyond that, what is also important is what is not mentioned in the ballot label. While it says the Citizens Redistricting Commission will resume drawing districts in 2031, it does not tell voters who will be drawing districts during the pause–politicians!

That fact is the strongest argument opponents have to defeat Prop. 50—Don’t take the power from an independent commission and hand it to self-interested politicians. Not surprisingly, AG Bonta included the best argument for the proponents and ignored the best argument for the opposition.

As to the issue of the temporary stay, as I pointed out previously, a review of California political history shows that making a temporary change in the law is not necessarily temporary. Such a fact will only find its way into the state’s official ballot booklet if it raised by opponents in the con arguments that appear in the booklet. It won’t come from the AG.

Yet, despite the brouhaha over the redistricting war that is boiling across the country and rousing political partisans, it will be the great majority of voters who will decide the next congress–including voters who care little about governance intricacies but prefer to hear about Taylor Swift or debate the Cracker Barrel logo.

That said, I do think the redistricting changes will not be the deciding factor in the control of congress in the 2026 elections. The congressional elections will come down to the political issues a year from now and the success or failure of many of the Trump initiatives backed by Republicans.

Will Republicans have the winning advantage for shutting down the border, or will they lose for immigration raids that have deported non-felons? Will Trump be praised for bringing peace to war zones like the Congo or Armenia-Azerbaijan, or be criticized if the Ukraine-Russia war continues? Will Republicans be celebrated for bringing in revenue from tariffs, or be reviled for raising costs and inflation?

The test of the 2026 midterms will depend on people who care about celebrity weddings and corporate logos and what they determine to be the successes or failures of the Trump administration.