The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race: Where It Currently Stands

Since the last recap in December, the U.S. Senate race in California has taken some twists and turns. Candidates once thought to be sort of out have been roaring back in polls, while others have fallen back. The first debates are also coming up, and with two months to go, anything can still happen. As of Friday, this is where the race currently stands.

Who is in?

Well, the deadline to enter has passed, and with ballots starting to get printed, it’s all pretty much set.

Democrats have 11 candidates in total. The three main Democrats, Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and  Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) are all polling above 10%. As for others still with at least a few percentage points in polling, only one fits the bill: LA TV anchorwoman Christina Pascucci.

As for the GOP, there are 10 candidates. Unlike the Democrats, only one, former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres First Baseman Steve Garvey, is polling above 10%. However, two still have averaged about 5% each in recent polls as well:  Attorney and 2022 GOP candidate for Attorney General Eric Early and businessman and Coast Guard veteran James Bradley.

In addition to the two main parties, there is also a Libertarian candidate, an American Independent candidate and four non-party candidates in the race. However, none are currently polling above 1%. Right now, of the 27 candidates on the ballot, only 7 are tracking to get at least 1% of the vote come March.

There are also still three third party candidates, none of whom are appearing in polls.

Who is out?

Ever since former Google executive Lexi Reese dropped out in November, several other small Democrats and Republicans have quietly ended their campaigns. However, none of the major polling candidates dropped out in December. Some who were rumored to be looking at dropping out, such as Lee, have either made resurgences or remained competitive.

Right now, it is possible that someone else may bow out in the next few months to give momentum towards another candidate, but right now, there are no indications that that is happening. At the very least, ad agencies are paid up on candidates going into the next few months and no one is asking for their money back.

Who is backing who?

Lee, Porter, and Schiff all still have dozens of lawmakers and political groups backing them. Schiff still has generally more House members and labor unions in his corner, Lee still has more state officials, local leaders, and out of state House members, and Porter still has a little bit of everything. In particular, state Assemblymembers and Senators are largely split on who they are backing. The Israel-Hamas war is also flipping a few supporters here and there as well depending on where the candidates stand.

On the GOP side of things, Early is still nabbing County GOP group support. However, with Garvey’s support rising, GOP lawmakers have remained largely quiet and are still waiting to see if he makes it into the general before throwing their support behind him. It’s still not a sure thing.

What is for sure is that, come March after the election, endorsements are going to be greatly realigned.

How is polling going?

Two big polls came out in December. A Survey USA poll found that Schiff is out ahead with 22%, with Garvey overtaking Porter for second place for the first time in the race with 15%. Porter, along with Congresswoman Lee were tied for third with 12%. In a distant fifth place is lawyer Eric Early with 6%.

A mid-December Politico poll released soon after had similar results. According to that poll, Schiff moved out to a commanding lead in the race, with a 28% in total. Coming in second is Garvey with 19%. Porter remained in a close third with 17% with Lee, long considered to be out following several polls having her come in below 10%, now at 14%. Rounding out the top finishers were Early and businessman James Bradley  with 7% each and Pascucci at 4%.

Compared to November polls, Schiff moved up considerably, as did Garvey and Lee, with Porter beginning to stagnate. What was expected to be a Schiff-Porter race come November is now a likely Schiff-Garvey race should the polls hold.

What is coming up next?

With the candidate deadlines now gone and endorsements slowing down, we now have two months of campaigning to go for the primaries.

In addition to each candidates respective campaign and new polls, the big thing coming up is the debate. To be held on the 23rd in LA, the first Senate debate will showcase Schiff, Porter, Lee, and Garvey. Those four want any undecided voters left, and in the case of the first three, want as many Democrats as possible to be on their side as that is the key to victory for them.

There is going to be a lot of intensified campaigning throughout the state, so keep an eye out for candidates swinging by your neck of the woods. Chances are they will be giving a speech or something within driving distance soon. And if some major event takes place like a natural disaster, expect all four to be there when it happens. Schiff, Porter, and Lee in particular will also try and get close to Newsom, as, for Democrats, his support can be big.

The primary election is to be held in two months on March 5th, with by-mail ballots going out soon.