First California U.S. Senate Debate To Be Held On January 23rd

The first California U.S. Senate debate was announced on Thursday, with Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA), former baseball star Steve Garvey (R), Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) all being invited to the event to be held in Los Angeles later this month.

Like previous years, a series of debates before the primary election held in locations across the state was expected to remain the same in 2024. However, the big question looming over the first debate was how many people would joining the debate. In past years, with former Senators Dianne Feinstein and Kamala Harris, debates were more focused on the general election, with any primary debate only having two or three candidates. However, with the 2024 election having an open seat, a large number of seasoned candidates, and quickly shifting polls, it was largely unknown what the debate would look like.

Before October, a Schiff-Porter-Lee debate was largely seen as likely, with a Democrat-only debate that month featuring the three. However, with Lee slipping in the polls, a Schiff-Porter debate was also seen as likely. But the emergence of Garvey  later that month, as well as a slight resurgence of Lee, radically changed things. Last month, Garvey overtook Porter for second place in polling, with Lee climbing above the 10% threshold once again. With the four all now polling between 28%-14% each, it was announced on Thursday that the four will be in the first official debate.

The debate is to be hosted by POLITICO, Fox 11 Los Angeles and the University of Southern California Dornsife Center for the Political Future, and will be held on January 23rd. The debate will take place from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST at the Bovard Auditorium at USC in Los Angeles. Fox 11 anchorman Elex Michaelson and Politico reporter Melanie Mason are to be the moderators.

Several other candidates, including lawyer Eric Early (R) and anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D) gave statements on Thursday condemning the debate for locking out other candidates, as the criteria for entering was not made quite clear.

“The Media doesn’t have the right to shut out candidates from the first major debate in this critically important race, and manipulate the outcome of the election in the process, Early said in a statement. “The organizers’ proposed ‘debate’ is yet another attack on our democracy, by effectively telling California’s 40% undecided voters in a ‘jungle primary’ who they should and should not decide on.”

Pascucci added, “This isn’t a debate with the qualified candidates whom voters have chosen, it’s a coronation of Adam Schiff, the leader of California’s left wing Democrats. By excluding serious candidates with durable support, they are failing in their duty to provide civic discussion to the public. That undermines the democratic process.”

The four candidates in the race

All four candidates are expected to come in with different strategies.

“Schiff’s goal is simple in that he wants to retain his commanding lead, so he’ll likely play it cool and avoid any controversial jabs,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday. “Garvey is going to be the pincushion for the other three, as he is the lone Republican with no prior elected office and no real debate experience. You can bet he will be prepping for the next several weeks. The other three will be on him like jackals, and Garvey needs to both show his stuff as well as attack when needed. With these three, there isn’t for a lack of things to get on them about, but he will be the most isolated one up there, so he needs to keep his cool. He’s been doing pretty well with speeches, so it is promising.”

“Porter. Porter is really embarrassed that she is now third in a race that had been all but guaranteed for her to be first or second in. If anyone is going to go after Garvey hard, it is her. And when she has time, she’ll stave off Lee and go after Schiff. Porter is the only one really slipping in momentum now, and she needs something big. Going after the lone Republican in the race likely won’t be enough. And finally Lee. Her goal is to stay in the running and keep above 10% and steadily creep up to second in polling. She needs Democratic support for that, and she won’t have much to gain from just going after Garvey all night either.”

“This is very interesting because while Garvey will be the main target, they all want a piece of each other’s support up there. The Israel war has been a big dividing issue between the four, but so has the state budget issue as well as the usual issues like homelessness, housing, and the economy. Water issues might come up too, as well as regional issues. Lee is the only candidate from Northern California, so she needs to brush up on a lot. She has been hyperfocused, regionally, on Oakland for years, and she needs to really continue to expand on the state.”

“We’re getting some more polls coming in the next few weeks, so we can  garner a lot from them and see how the candidates might shift in prepping. But there might be some big issues coming up both in California and nationally, so that could throw them all a curveball at the last minute. Each one needs a ‘sound bite of the night,’ as well as some clips to play in last minute ads. You can bet that all of them are working on that signature line or prepared quip right now. Propmaster Porter might even go full Carrot Top and bring a few visual aids out if she is desperate. We’ll have a better feel for the debate in the coming few weeks.

The second debate has yet to be announced.