UC Berkeley Poll Shows Schiff Leading Garvey In Senate Race 53% To 33%

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released on Thursday found that Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) is currently leading former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) by 20 points, 53% to 33%, with many voters still undecided about the race less than 3 months until election day.

Previous polls, all done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. Their latest poll, released on Wednesday, found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%.

The IGS poll also found that while both Schiff and Garvey lead in their respective parties by nearly 90% each in terms of part affiliation, independent voters are much more freewheeling. Schiff currently leads there 54% to 25%, with 21% of independents still undecided. By political ideology, moderate voters showed a similar stance, coming in with 51% support for Schiff, 30% support for Garvey and 19% undecided.

The breakdown by region also showed a split state. Schiff is leading in most areas including a 50% to 41% gap in Orange County. However, Garvey still leads in a few regions, including the Central Valley and Inland Empire.

UC Berkeley IGS Mark DiCamillo said that “The problem for Garvey is there are way more Democrats and liberals in the state than there are Republicans or conservatives. It’s a structural problem for the Republicans.”

IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler added that “The results suggest Schiff continues to be in a strong position for the Senate race.  This is setting up to be a fairly typical Democratic versus Republican contest, at the state level in California, which tends to favor the Democratic candidate.”

However, unlike other polls, the UC Berkeley poll included an undecided voter category. If undecided voters are split 50-50, Garvey likely has closer to a 40% pull. Projections by pollsters have shown that Garvey is likely close to 40% minus margins of error and undecided voter counts. The IGS poll helps prove this, with the Garvey campaign on Thursday also noting that Schiff’s 53% is also unusually low for a Democrat in a Senate race.

In a statement, Garvey campaign manager Andy Gharakhani said that “For Schiff to only be at 53% after decades in politics was evidence enough that the momentum in this election is behind Steve Garvey. While Adam Schiff has already spent tens of millions of dollars on advertising and is well defined with voters, Californians are listening to Steve Garvey with an open mind.”

Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, added that “33% doesn’t sound great, but the IGS poll always brings in undecided voters, and it always shows a clearer picture. Previous polls didn’t allow that room, and had Schiff as high as the mid 60s, while Garvey was as low as the mid 30s. 53% to 33% with 14% undecided is much closer to the truth. If undecideds are split, which they often are, then Schiff is at 60% and Garvey is at 40%. That makes this the best GOP Senate results in decades should the numbers hold.

“And we have several months left. Garvey is outfundraising Schiff right now.  He’s not making it easy for him.”

More Senate polls are expected later this month.