Where Do The CA Battleground House Races Stand A Day Later

For the House races in California, many were decided on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. However, with six huge battleground races out there, enough to possibly decide which party gets the House, we’ll take a look at where they are 24 hours after results first started coming in. Let’s start with…

Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) v. former Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), 13th Congressional District

The 13th Congressional district spans the San Joaquin Valley, covering, all of Merced County, most of Madera County, and parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin Counties. The current Congressman in John Duarte (R-CA), a Stockton area farmer and businessman  who beat former Assemblyman Adam Gray by around 500 votes in 2022. The total was so close that it officially wasn’t called until late November. Nonetheless, Duarte won.

This year, his challenger is Gray once again, still feeling the sting of the loss from two years ago. The race this year is once again tight, with every election prediction hub labeling it as a toss-up. Polls had Gray and Duarte within a point of each other, and the debates only inched Duarte up. Critically, going into Tuesday, Duarte was also aided by the critical Latino vote in the District.

Right now, Duarte is up over Gray 56,785 to 53,596, or 51.4% to 48.6% with only about half the vote in. It can still go either way, but Duarte is benefitting from not only the Latino vote but the late Trump surge. It probably won’t be as close as it was two years ago, but it will still be close.

Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) v. Assemblyman Evan Low (D), 16th Congressional District

The 16th Congressional District stretches across coastal San Mateo County into the Silicon Valley and San Jose area of Santa Clara County. Currently, the seat is up for grabs thanks to Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (D-CA) announcing that she would not run for reelection this year. As the district is virtually a lock for a Democratic candidate, multiple candidates came out earlier this year to run in the March primary. Former San Jose Mayor and current Stanford professor Sam Liccardo (D) easily won first place.

While not a battleground state, the race has been the subject of intense focus thanks to both candidates being prominent lawmakers. However, Low stumbled again and again this year with multiple incidents and allegations going against him. Liccardo also got a small but critical boost from Republican voters in the ‘least worst candidate’ decision, with conservatives voting for him two to one, largely because of business friendly decisions he made as Mayor.

With 53% of the vote in, the race was called on Wednesday, with Liccardo winning. Currently Liccardo has 60% of the total vote, or 117,905 votes, compared to Low’s 79,079. This has been deemed insurmountable.

Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) v. former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 22nd Congressional District

Up next is the 22nd District. Stretching across the San Joaquin Valley, it includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. In terms of cities, about half of Bakersfield is in there. Currently the district is headed up by Rep. David Valadao (R-CA). Since 2013, the former 21st District/current 22nd District covering the Southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, has seen Congressman Valadao win, lose, then win the district again despite a growing Democratic advantage. Valadao managed to hold onto office until the 2018 ballot harvesting blue wave mid-terms, when Democrat T.J. Cox won by roughly 900 votes, 50.4% to 49.6%. However, two years later, a Twitter scandal and the revelation that Cox had unpaid taxes swung the election back to Valadao – this time with almost 2,000 votes a difference.

Two years after that, in 2022, redistricting pushed the district more in favor of Democrats, with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) coming in as the heavy favorite over Valadao. According to some polls, he was ahead by as much as 8 points. But Valadao’s tough campaign, as well as Salas making some questionable political moves, swung the race towards Valadao. Valadao ended up winning by just over 3,000 votes, 51.5% to 48.5%.

Salas is once again the main challenger, coming out of the political grave yet again. And once again it has been close. Polls have been all over the map. Most have shown Valadao narrowly winning. Recent polls had Salas 3 points ahead.

But it seems like the polls were way off. On Wednesday Valadao has a double digit point lead, 55% to 45% with 52% of the vote in. In terms of numbers it is 53,794 votes to 43,955 votes. Unless Salas has a few voting precincts where he is winning by huge margins, Valadao is likely to make it through again, with a possibly even higher margin than 2022.

Rep. Mike Garcia v. CEO of Virgin Galactic George Whitesides,  27th Congressional District

The 27th district covers Northwest L.A. County, including suburbs like Santa Clarita and the desert suburbs like Lancaster and Palmdale on the other side of Angeles National Forest. Rep. Mike Garcia has headed up the District since 2020, and for the last 3 elections (Special 2020, 2020, and 2022) managed to beat out Democrat Christy Smith. Finally getting the hint that she is unelectable, Smith decided not to run this year, with former NASA chief of staff and former CEO of Virgin Galactic George Whitesides running instead.

Whitesides has managed to stay a few points ahead of Garcia all throughout the campaign. Whitesides also has more money on Garcia and an aerospace background that has been unique amongst recent candidates. The latest polls had Whitesides up by two points.

Currently, with 66% of the vote in, Garcia has a narrow 51%-49% lead over Whitesides. It’s 115,772 to 111,005 votes and is right now one of the closest races out there. This one is still anybody’s district, but considering Whitesides has been ahead in polling for months, a sudden Garcia win would be a minor shock. Then again, Garcia is a Latino and benefits from that and Trump’s wild night

Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) v. attorney Will Rollins, 41st Congressional District

The Riverside County district is big, going from the outer banks of the Inland Empire across the desert to the outskirts of Indio, covering cities like Palm Springs along the way. Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) is the incumbent and has been in office since 1993. While the area was initially a lock for the GOP, population shifts caused things to shift to the center in recent years. Last year, Calvert won, but the results took several days to tabulate as things were so close.

Seeing a possible in, Democrats went all in on the District this year, putting up attorney Will Rollins, who lost to Calvert only 2 years ago. Rollins not only has a money advantage, but recent polls have had him several points over Calvert, albeit with double digit undecided numbers. The latest polls had Calvert up by a point.

Right now Calvert is leading with 65% of the vote in. In total, Calvert has 122,437 votes and Rollins 115,695. 51.4% to 48.6%. Everyone thoought this was going to be Rollins year, but again, that unexpected surge of people voting Republican seems to have put a damper on Democratic hopes in CA to get some of these swing districts.

Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) v. Attorney Derek Tran, 45th Congressional District

The 45th District, which covers both Los Angeles County and Orange County, forms a horseshoe around Anaheim from the west. Current incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) has been in office since 2021, winning huge elections in 2020 and 2022 that both flipped the district and showed she could still with with district realignment respectively.

Democrats have been wanting this district back for four years, and this year, put up Attorney Derek Tran. Polling initially had Steel out by a few points. But the Harris run flipped things, with Steel now behind Tran by a few points in polls. The latest polls confirmed Tran was ahead, albeit with questions about his attendance in commissions suddenly flaring up, as well as him going after Steel about a trivial matter days before the election day.

Steel has all but outright won the district according the polls, which are at 66%. She’s over 10,000 votes ahead, with 123,361 compared to Tran’s 113,225. That’s above 52% and nearing that ‘win’ threshold. Once again, Republicans did unexpectedly well. They’re likely to call this race for her soon. It’s close to the insurmountable number now.

Scott Baugh (R) v. Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County), 47th Congressional District

The 47th District. Covering lower Orange County, the current member of Congress is Katie Porter (D-CA). Why isn’t she running this year? Well, she put all her chips in the U.S. Senate primary in March, came in a distant third, went nuts saying that the race was rigged, and ended her political career spectacularly at least for the next few years.

The GOP candidate this year is Scott Baugh, who nearly defeated Porter in 2022. For the Democrats is Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County). This has been the wonkiest race this year. Both candidates have had highs and lows. For example, Min got a DUI last year, something that has really hurt him this election cycle. And polls have shown this out: Baugh has had a constant 1-2 point lead over Min all summer. Even that Harris bump did nothing. Baugh has remained several points ahead too. It’s never great to piss off MADD.

As expected, Baugh is ahead, albeit much closer than predicted. With 69% of the votes in, just over 1,000 votes separate the two. Baugh has 134,001, Min has 132,868. This one might take a few weeks if this rate keeps up. But it should be noted that Baugh does have the advantage right now.

Overall, Trump, the Latino vote, and the economy all helped push forward more voters to vote for Republicans. Minus the 16th District above, which has two Democrats going at it, every race here has the Republicans ahead, where they had been predicted to possibly lose half. A lot more votes need to be counted and nothing is for sure, but the current results are cautiously encouraging for the GOP.