Rep. David Valadao to Face Former Asm. Rudy Salas Again After Close Primary

Former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D) clinched second place in the primary voting for the 22nd U.S. House District on Wednesday, setting up a rematch against incumbent Congressman David Valadao (R-CA)

Since 2013, the former 21st District/current 22nd District covering the Southern part of the San Joaquin Valley, has seen Congressman Valadao win, lose, then win the district again despite a growing Democratic advantage. Valadao managed to hold onto office until the 2018 ballot harvesting blue wave mid-terms, when Democrat T.J. Cox won by roughly 900 votes, 50.4% to 49.6%. However, two years later, a Twitter scandal and the revelation that Cox had unpaid taxes swung the election back to Valadao – this time with almost 2,000 votes a difference.

Two years after that, in 2022, redistricting pushed the district more in favor of Democrats, with Salas coming in as the heavy favorite over Valadao. According to some polls, he was ahead by as much as 8 points. But Valadao’s tough campaign, as well as Salas making some boneheaded political moves, swung the race towards Valadao. Valadao ended up winning by just over 3,000 votes, 51.5% to 48.5%.

Salas immediately vowed that he would run in 2024, citing his narrow margin and the district being heavily Democrat as reasons he would win out. The California Democratic Party (CADEM) soon released their 2024 House election targets, with the 22nd being front and center. With former Fresno City Councilor Chris Mathys also coming into the race, the GOP looked like it was going to split the vote just as it had in the 2022 primary where Salas won by a wide margin over the Valadao-Mathys GOP nomination fight. However, Salas soon saw a major complication come up.

In July 2023, state Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) announced that she would be running for the seat as well, changing what was once a 1 Democrat/2 Republican race into a straight 2 Democrat/2 Republican free for all. As primary day crept closer, polls showed that voters were split in both parties. However, the Democrats had more of a damning split, as right-leaning voters were going to come out en masse. Projections showed that Valadao was surging, with the second-place victor now likely to be a battle between Salas, Hurtado, and Mathys.

I'm once again humbled to receive the support of so many voters across the Central Valley. I'll continue working hard to earn your support again in November. #CA22

— David G. Valadao (@dgvaladao) March 13, 2024

On election night on March 5th, the 22nd was one of a handful that wasn’t completely called. Valadao won one of the spots, but all three of the other candidates kept reaching second place before being sent down again as more votes came in. By the end of the night, there was no clear 2nd place winner, with Salas only having 900 more votes than Mathys. Over the next week, Salas moved more and more ahead, when on Wednesday morning it was announced that Salas had finally reached the threshold and officially defeated Mathys for second place.

As of Wednesday morning, Valadao stands at 18,084 votes, Salas 16,762, Mathys 12,268, and Hurtado 7,711.

“As we head to the November election, I’m truly grateful to the voters for standing with me in yet another critical election and thankful to all the volunteers who worked hard to get us here,” said Salas in a series of tweets on X on Wednesday. “The Associated Press just made a call in our race. I’ll be the Democratic nominee in CA22, which is a must-win race to flip control of the House.”

As we head to the November election, I'm truly grateful to the voters for standing with me in yet another critical election and thankful to all the volunteers who worked hard to get us here. #CA22

— Rudy Salas for Congress (@RudySalasCA) March 13, 2024

However, despite Salas getting the second spot in the jungle primary on Wednesday, many polling experts told the Globe on Wednesday that Salas will face a severe uphill battle this November based on the primary results and Valadao’s status as an incumbent spanning several terms.

“Salas almost lost to another Republican in the primary,” said Alex Guzman, a Central California pollster, to the Globe on Wednesday. “He should be very worried, and it appears he is. In his tweet after his victory tweet, he was literally asking for donations. He obviously knows that this election will be even harder than 2022.”

“This is how it gets tricky for him. In 2022, he won the primary as the sole Democrat with 45% of the vote, and only moved up to 48.5% in the November election. 3.5% in a non-presidential year. This year, if you lump in Hurtado’s votes into his, he has 44.6%, less than 2022. He has less support out of the gate in the primary.”

“Now, in 2022, he did move quickly to be the front runner, but he also lost it all again. Less support and Republican voters guaranteed to come out in force following four years of Biden? This is why Salas is trying to get every dollar now. In every election he is quick out of the gate but fades in the stretch, and he knows it. He’s in a worse position than where he was two years ago, with Valadao in a slightly better one.”