Schiff Has Sizeable Lead Over Garvey With 10 Days Left Until Election Day

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll released this week found that Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA) is still ahead of former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) 63%-37%, with the most recent debate having been found to do very little to change the kinds of voters.

Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. In August, a PPIC poll found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%, with a poll by them last month showing it to be 63%-35%.

However, a UC Berkeley poll released in early August was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll in August also found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%.

Last month, the UC Berkeley poll found the Schiff-Garvey split being at 53%-36%. Originally projected to be around 60%-40%, the new changes showed that, with the 11% undecided vote split, it was closer to 58.5%-41.5%, potentially breaking the decades long 60%+ lock Democrats have had in Senate races. The debate on October 8th was also expected to shift things considerably.

However, post-debate polls were released this week from the PPIC and Activote, each showing that, minus the undecided vote which usually shifts closer to election day, Schiff is currently ahead 63%-37%. Aggregate votes, even with the new polls, still have Schiff scoring lower 58%-35%, with around 7% undecided.

10 days until election day

“Most Democrats favor Schiff (93%) while most Republicans favor Garvey (92%)—and independents lean toward the Democrat (61% Schiff, 38% Garvey),” said the PPIC in their poll this week. “Majorities across demographic groups and the major regions of the state favor Schiff over Garvey. There is a gender gap in Senate candidate preferences (women: 68% Schiff, 31% Garvey; men: 58% Schiff, 41% Garvey). The overall margin of support in the US Senate race was similar in September (63% Schiff, 35% Garvey)—indicating that the October 8 debate between the two candidates had little impact.

“Sixty percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices in the US Senate race (similar to 59% in September and 62% in April). Today, Democrats (72%) are much more likely than Republicans (58%) and Schiff’s supporters (67%) are much more likely than Garvey’s supporters (49%) to say they are satisfied with the candidate choices in the Senate election.”

With only ten days until election day, Schiff is expected to win by a wide margin. However, by how much is still in doubt, especially with a rise of Republican support coming in the past several weeks.

“Trump’s big burst in support in California and amongst Latinos may help Schiff down ballot,” explained Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California. “Don’t expect a surprise close vote, or one where it won’t be called Tuesday night. But Schiff having the weakest performance of any Democrat in the general for decades will really give Democrats pause. The two polls this week did not account for undecided voters, many of whom are that Latino contingent. Schiff had been expecting to beat Garvey two to one after the primary, so Garvey already wrecked that. If it goes to 40% then, you know, wow. The debate, too, didn’t help either candidate much, so those undecided voters can still come into play.”

Election day is Tuesday November 5, 2024.