Senate candidate Steve Garvey (Photo: Garvey for Senate)
Latest Garvey/Schiff Poll Shows Little Change
Garvey slightly bumps up, remains behind Schiff
By Evan Symon, September 20, 2024 9:00 am
According to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll released on Thursday, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) ticked slightly upwards in polls while Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) stayed around the same in the U.S. Senate race, 35%-63%, with Schiff still at a large double digit lead.
Previous polls, mostly done by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), have found Schiff leading Garvey by between 61% to 64%, with Garvey garnering between 37% and 31%. However, as the Globe has noted, PPIC polls in the past have been far from reliable, including a PPIC poll conducted shortly before the March primary which had Garvey losing to Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA) for the second primary slot. Activote has been similarly seen in the same light in the past, especially with their small 400 voter sample sizes and 5% margin of error. Their latest poll, released on last month, found that Schiff is leading Garvey 66% to 34%.
However, a UC Berkeley poll released last month was shown to be far more realistic, with a large number of Californians still undecided in the race. In it, Schiff had only 53% of the vote, Garvey 33% and the rest being undecided. Without undecided voters, the tally was closer to Schiff 60%-Garvey 40%. An Emerson College poll earlier this month also found that Schiff only gained a few more percentage points of votes, coming in to a 55% to 33% total. Without undecided voters the tally, with margin of error, was Schiff with 59%-61% and Garvey with 39%-41%.
The PPIC poll numbers released on Thursday continued to show only slight changes for both candidates compared to other PPIC votes. Like the other PPIC votes before it, Schiff and Garvey fell between the ranges they have been in for months, albeit with Garvey gaining a few more points over the last two months, while Schiff only saw a one point gain.
The poll also found that 59% of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of US Senate candidates this year, with notable variation across partisan groups. 68% Democrats said they were satisfied with the choices, as did 59% of Republicans and only 44% of independents.
Garvey 35%, Schiff 63%
PPIC Statewide Survey director Mark Baldassare added that “Democrat Adam Schiff leads Republican Steve Garvey by a wide margin in the US Senate race and majorities say they are satisfied with the choices of candidates.”
However, like other PPIC polls before it, there is no real room for undecided voters, with other polls clearly giving that as an option. So when compared to the Berkeley and Emerson polls, Garvey keeps nearly all his support, while Schiff sheds off around 10 points. Thus, the PPIC poll showed that things are generally the same. And, with Garvey seeing a point or two more, he is still within the 40% benchmark, as undecided voters tend to split closer to election day.
“PPIC polls never really give undecided as an option,” said Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Thursday. “So, yeah, you are correct in, combining with the two previous polls where undecided votes are an option, Garvey is still likely to be close to 40%. I’d say 38% to 41% right now.
“Schiff is a bit more of a variable in that he has a lot more undecided voter support right now, which really equates to independent voters who can still switch over by election day. PPIC polls don’t really give that option while others do. Many have been waiting on the two to clash, or see how Schiff handles an election crisis. A lot of people are also waiting to see what Garvey does more about Trump.
“Trump threw down the gauntlet last week when he was in L.A., challenging Garvey to ask for his endorsement. But Garvey is still trying to get those independent voters, those undecided ones. Maybe even some DINOs. A Trump endorsement could endanger those, while also solidifying his base.
“But the polls show that, right now, it really is wait and see. Vote at home ballots have yet to arrive, so there is plenty of time. Many are waiting to see what Trump and Harris can do. Harris has yet to have a big scandal, and many voters are waiting on that. For Schiff and Garvey, some of their support is tied with the Presidential election. Should Harris keep this momentum going, Schiff will possibly get above 60%. But if Harris gets a nasty October surprise, or Trump manages to rack up more points, that can benefit Garvey.
“The poll today showed that, while there has been a little change, there hasn’t been a big jolt to really shake things up. That’s what the race needs, and right now, it’s sort of just plateauing.”
More polls are expected later this month.
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Adam Schiff said the he had proof that Trump was dealing with the Russians. (I’m not if this was the issue as there were many during the Trump Administration. Please correct me if I’m wrong.)
Adam Schiff is a known for lying. He isn’t well-liked even among some Democrats.
All that was proven to be false, but you will never see it in the mainstream news. Yes, I agree, Schiff is a known liar.
I’m voting for Garvey to help protect our boarders and nation.
Where do you get your information from?
Try another source. Perhaps PBS.
Where do you get your information from?
Try another source. Perhaps PBS.
From shifty schiffs mouth, duh. He was on tv every chance he got to say that djt is a Russian agent! Pull yer head out Pablo. Oh and PBS ? PBS is very left leaning and not neutral at all
I don’t know why they haven’t took his Bar license in California for lying. I seen him every day saying he had evidence but he still ain’t showed it. Go Steve Garvey
I agree
Schiff lies constantly. How could anyone vote for him?
Where do you get your information from?
Try another source. Perhaps PBS.
Pablo, you should buy a TV with more than one channel.
I would have to agree with Mr Garvey – how can Schiff get every morning with one job in mine – get Trump? I am voting for Mr Garvey who will pay attention to real problems in CA – Homeless, drug, housing, education, migrants, etc..
I would have to agree with Mr Garvey – how can Schiff get every morning with one job in mine – get Trump? I am voting for Mr Garvey who will pay attention to real problems in CA – Homeless, drug, housing, education, migrants, etc..
liar liar pants on fire …he is a known liar and is that what you want in the Senate representing California. The only reason he will win is because he has a giant d behind his name. d for demonic, demented, disgraced, disappointing, and I hope done!! Good luck Steve!!
I’m for Steve Garvey. He has a more humble attitude and seems like he just wants to get a job done and not try and tear others down like arrogant Schiff. His reaction is pious because he knows he can win in this deep blue state. We need common sense democrats. Schiff is not that.
if the people of California are so misinformed enough to vote for slick Adam shifty shift, they deserve what they get. How in the world with your state going in the toilet more every day can you even consider reelecting such a liar?
It’s beyond my ability to understand that people would vote for someone like Adam Schiff. He cost tax payers over $50 million with his lies about Russian collusion. Could that money have been spent on the homeless or on mental health programs (at least in part) here in CA. If hatred for Trump takes priority over improving California, then do you really care about where you live? Reality check… Garvey is the best choice for improving the Golden State. But if you’re a diehard Newsom / Schiff supporter and you really want more of the same, then there are no facts or reasonable arguments that can influence such a lost cause voter. Very sad. I hope the polls are dead wrong and people who have this choice renew mine and others faith in our community and neighbors.
Amen…Schiff is a disgrace and a liar. They impeach of a phone call? Schiff makes me embarrassed to call myself an American. He needs to grow a pair and tell Soros to go back to Budapest. I am sick of all the Sell outs who have been bought by George and Alex Soros. Why does someone from Budapest get to pick the Dem nominee. Russia is in Cuba…90 miles from our shore…You Harris lovers need to ask the ukraine Whether or not russia is dangerous….
Shiff was also involved in the Iran deal allowing Iran to nuke up but why should he care, he would have had a dugout that he could dive into when the nukes came. (BTW does everyone know that while Russia’s and Sweden’s fallout shelters have been kept up, ours have not? There are no screens for the nuke fallout. We’ll be like rats in a cage.) Hope Steve can do it.
Douglas
I don’t see any way to kick adam shift out of the senate, california is too left-leaning.They deserve what they get. that’s why I moved to nevada. no state tax.