Sen. Dave Min Narrowly Defeats Scott Baugh in 47th District House Race

Another one of California’s crucial ‘Big 6’ Congressional seats was decided late on Tuesday, with Senator Dave Min (D-Orange County) narrowly defeating former Assemblyman and Orange County Republican Chairman Scott Baugh (R)  in the Orange County based 47th Congressional District race for Congresswoman Katie Porter’s (D-CA) lame duck seat.

The 47th District, which forms a rough triangle going from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach to Northeastern Irvine, is one of the most sought after Districts in the Country because it is such a toss up. The district is currently held by outgoing Congresswoman Porter. She narrowly defeated Baugh in 2022 51.7% to 48.3%. With such a close race, thanks in part to Congressional redistricting, Porter opted to run for the U.S. Senate in 2024 than try and retain her House seat. However, Porter finished a distant third in the Senate primary in March, leading to a wide open lame duck Congressional race.

As the district is the last of the big four taken by Democrats in the 2018 election not yet taken back by the GOP, considerable resources from both parties were put in the election this year. Both candidates have had a constant back and forth in the polls since last year, with new scandals putting one over the other. For example, Min got a DUI last year, which hurt his support. However, Baugh had slips of his own, such as backlash from “wokeism” comments he made in September of last year.

The Cook Political Report said that the District was still leaning towards Democrats earlier this year. Despite that outlook from many outlets, polls showed a different story of Baugh actually being ahead by a few points. While voters were affected by many factors such as the economy, cost of living, crime, homelessness, and affordable housing, the 47th also included the unusual factor of Min’s 2023 DUI being the deciding factor for many. As a result, Baugh had had a constant 1-2 point lead over Min all summer.

However, in the weeks leading up to the election, things began to change. Min galvanized the Asian American vote, and thanks to the national party kicking in money, poured funds into advertising. While registered Republicans shot up in the district, Min had more independent voters in his corner. Baugh soon went from a three point lead in mid-October to around dead even by election day.

On election day, Baugh was ahead in the vote count. But as more mail-in ballots came in, things swung towards Min. On Tuesday, new vote totals showed that Min was now ahead 164,372 to 158,460 with 81% of the vote in. In terms of percentages, this was at 50.9% to 49.1%. While it was narrow, it was enough for Min to declare victory on Tuesday night as outlets began to declare him the victor.

“I am honored and humbled to have been elected by the majority of voters in California’s 47^th Congressional District, but I am going to Washington, DC with eyes wide open,” said Min in a victory statement on Tuesday night. “We are facing the struggle of our lives to try to defend this country and its most cherished legacies and democratic institutions. But I want to be clear—we are not giving up on America, and we cannot give up on America. As the child of immigrants who survived the Korean War, I owe everything I have to this country. In Congress, I will carry on the fight to protect our democracy, safeguard our freedoms, and expand the economic opportunity at the heart of the American Dream.

“You have my pledge on this—I will continue to stand up for our rights, including the reproductive rights of women, and to fight for a stronger and better future for young people, including creating more affordable housing, reducing gun violence, and doing all we can to rescue our civilization from the climate crisis. The fight has just begun.”

Baugh concedes race

On X, Baugh also conceded the race, adding that “It has become clear that despite running a strong campaign, connecting with voters, and mobilizing an incredible volunteer effort – that effort is going to come up a little short. I was looking forward to working with Democrats, Republicans and Donald Trump to solve serious problems like an open border, increasing crime, and runaway federal spending but the voters have spoken and this is not what is intended for me.

“Despite the outcome of this race, I remain hopeful and optimistic about America because the American people are entrepreneurial, industrious, creative and are rooted in the values that made this country the greatest country in the history of the world. We just need to get government out of the way to unleash the enormous power of productivity in the minds and hands of every person who calls America their home. Let us continue to pray for our elected officials that they may have with wisdom and courage to make the right decisions for America’s bright future.”

Despite the race being one of the major House races of the election, it was not a flipped seat for Democrats, as Min is simply replacing Porter. But the race was still a huge get, as Baugh had been up for most of the race and the district is slowly becoming more and more Republican. For the GOP, this is on track to be their best showing for a House race there since 2016, with Baugh coming even closer in 2024 to winning than he had in the close 2022 election against Porter. The closeness of the race now makes the district an early must have district for the GOP in 2026, with it being their last ‘white whale’ district in the County from the four lost during the 2018 blue wave midterms.

“If the election was a month earlier, Baugh would have won,” said Los Angeles polling analyst Malik Griffin to the Globe on Wednesday. “We all were predicting for Baugh to be this year’s ‘comeback kid’. But Min double downed on Asian voters and got so much money from the Democratic Party. Baugh did gain with white and Latino voters towards the end, but Min had enough by then. Trump won the district, but Min had enough Asian voters to go for him. If you are looking for a poster child County for split ticket voters, Orange County is your county.

“On the national picture, Min’s win was moot, as the GOP took control of the House today in terms of called races so far. On a more local level, Min is going to have to fighter harder than Porter ever did in reelection, as we are likely going to see the district turn more red. The Democrats held the district, but next time it’s going to be even harder.”

As of Wednesday, 4 of the 6 “Big 6” Congressional races in California have been called, with Republicans holding two, and the Democrats flipping one and holding one.