Ringside: Chad Bianco Could Hand the U.S. Congress to Democrats

As we ponder the results of the election in progress, wondering which races will have known outcomes by the end of the evening and which shall end up so close that it will take a month before we have final results, it’s timely to reflect on just how much potential harm Chad Bianco has willfully inflicted not just on California, but the entire nation.

For a while, Bianco’s choice to stay in the race was understandable. Maybe he’d outperform Steve Hilton in the gubernatorial debates, maybe Hilton would lose momentum, and maybe, just maybe, his polling percentages would catch up with Hilton. After all, at the beginning of 2026 there were still eight serious democrat candidates in the race for governor, inspiring more than a few credulous Republicans into fantasizing about Hilton and Bianco pulling a one-two in the primary.

All of this became impossible by the first week of May. The three major polls taken that week had Hilton’s lead over Bianco had grown to 23-13 (Binder), 22-13 (Kreate), and 20-14 (Mellman). In the second week of May, Hilton extended his lead over Bianco in three more polls to 20-13 (PPIC), 22-11 (Evitarus), and 17-11 (Emerson). Now, going into election week, the Real Clear Politics average of seven major polls conducted since 5/24 puts Hilton ahead of Bianco 23.3-10.9.

If California’s voters hadn’t been conned into approving Proposition 14 in 2010, which threw away ballots where the winning candidate from every qualifying political party would get a chance in the general election, then Bianco could claim he’s staying in the race on principle. But for the last 16 years, candidates compete in so-called jungle primaries, where the top two finishers advance to the November ballot regardless of party.

So when Chad Bianco was weighing what principles inform his political choices, he had to consider the rise of Xavier Becerra, who was the Democratic party’s inevitable answer to the fragmented field. Becerra, a lifetime politician who can be relied upon to do whatever the special interests who run California tell him to do, has been propelled from obscurity less than two months ago to now being the front-runner, polling at 24.6 percent.

Meanwhile, Democrat Tom Steyer is proving that if you hire the right people, you just might buy your way into the governor’s office. Steyer, who is running one of the most cynical campaigns this state has ever seen, is a billionaire oligarch posing as a leftist fanatic. To sell this preposterous paradox, accompanied by promises on the issues of housing, health care, and energy that can’t possibly be fulfilled, he has hired one of the finest claques of political operatives in America. Against the odds, the team Steyer hired was previously responsible for the victories of Zohran Mamdani, John Fetterman, and Ruben Gallego. Steyer’s got a crack team running his campaign and he’s willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to saturate the air with their work. He now sits at 21 percent in the polls.

This is the reality Chad Bianco knows as well as anyone. On primary election day in California, there is a three way race for two spots on the November ballot, and it’s too close to call. Chad Bianco saw this coming long enough ago to have dropped out to ensure Hilton would make it onto the November ballot, and he chose instead to stay in the race.

There is far more at stake here than just who becomes the next governor of California. If two Democrats are on the November ballot, how many Republicans will be so disgusted they will not even bother to vote? And what are the consequences of low GOP turnout?

To begin with, there are critical ballot initiatives. The Local Taxpayer Protection Act will save Proposition 13 by closing loopholes that have allowed local governments and interest groups to bypass Prop. 13’s voter protections and raise taxes. It must pass.

And then there is the retaliatory initiative ACA 13 which will require any citizen-initiated constitutional amendments that propose a higher vote threshold for state or local ballot measures to meet the same higher threshold to pass. It must fail.

Let’s not forget the “One-Time” Wealth Tax initiative, where in the fine print it empowers the state legislature, any time it chooses, to gut Prop. 13, make the wealth tax permanent instead of “one-time,” and lower the threshold from “billionaires” to whatever level of personal net worth they wish. This initiative must fail.

A low GOP turnout also harms GOP chances in every close race, and there are several. According to Cal Matters, there are four races for State Senate and seven races for State Assembly that are competitive. It is not feasible this year to shift control of the state legislature to Republicans. But eliminating their two-thirds majority is worth fighting for. The GOP can make progress this year toward that goal, but not if voters stay home.

Where Chad Bianco’s refusal to bow out of the race is going to consign him to historic infamy, however, is when it comes to control of the U.S. Congress. There are eight competitive U.S. House races in California for the November 2026 general election, and it doesn’t take a political pro to understand how much is at stake.

As it is, Republicans only hold 7 out of 52 seats in California’s congressional delegation. Democrats are favored to pick up 2 to 4 of these 7, shrinking Republican held seats down to between 3 and 5. The timing couldn’t be worse. Control of the U.S. Congress hangs by a thread. It is quite possible that Democrats could win control of the U.S. Congress by a single seat margin, and if so, every close congressional race that is lost in California will be the reason for this much bigger setback.

These realities and their consequences were known to Chad Bianco. If Republican voters stay home this November because Chad Bianco split the Republican party and handed our gubernatorial options to a pair of Democrats, close races will swing to the Democrats. That includes a chance to protect Prop. 13, prevent the state legislature from raising taxes, reduce the 2/3 majority in the state legislature, and, most consequential of all, maintain control of the U.S. Congress.

Good job, Chad Bianco. This is the choice you made.