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Abortion Emerging as Major Issue in California For 2022 Mid-Term Election

Proposition 1, reaction against overturning of Roe v. Wade fuels likely uptick of voters in California

By Evan Symon, August 29, 2022 1:28 pm

According to polls released throughout August, the largest emerging issue affecting how Californians will vote this November is abortion, with many zeroing in on Proposition 1  as a significant reason for higher turnout.

Earlier this year, the issue of abortion wasn’t even registering on many issue polls, with the economy, COVID-19, and healthcare being the primary worries nationwide, and California also showing affordable housing and crime as top issues. However, that changed in June following the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade. As California moved forward with abortion sanctuary state policies. Democrats also introduced Proposition 1  for the November ballot, which would “prohibit the state from interfering with or denying an individual’s reproductive freedom – defined to “include a right to an abortion and a right to contraceptives” – other states pushed forward on trigger laws barring the practice from their state.

Governor Gavin Newsom personally targeted many states, including Texas and Georgia, for their abortion ban stances in the ensuing months, pushing the issue even further into the public eye. All of this had a gigantic ripple effect on voters. Nationally, abortion saw a sharp rise as a top issue for the mid-term elections. In a Pew Research Poll this month on issues very important for voters, abortion went up a full 13 points from March, becoming a dominant issue and being roughly as important as gun policy and crime. But, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll released late last week, 81% of Californian voters list it as a very important issue, a full 25% higher than the national rate and 4 points ahead of the leading national issue, the economy.

On Prop 1, the IGS poll also finds that 71% of Californians are for it, with only 18% opposing it and the rest undecided. Even those who identify as “somewhat conservative” in the ideological part of the poll tended to be more in favor of the proposition, with 41% in favor and 39% not in favor.

“The findings show that the majority of California voters disagree with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling and approve of measures that would help to safeguard women’s rights in the state,” noted IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora.

A PPIC poll on Californian voters thoughts on the overturning of Roe v. Wade made earlier this month is largely in line with the IGS poll. PPIC found that 70% of Californians disapproved of the overturning, with even places such as the Inland Empire and Orange County sowing less than 40% approval of the overturning amongst voters.

Abortion and the 2022 mid-terms in California

With such numbers out just before the big election season ramp-up in September, many election experts have noted that the abortion issue will be driving many voters in the polls come November.

“So, you have a lot of voters in California who are now more passionate than ever on abortion, either for or against,” said Edgar Miller, a polling reviewer and consultant in Los Angeles, to the Globe on Monday. “That was already driving more people to vote in the mid-terms. But now with Prop 1 also on the ballot, a lot of people who otherwise wouldn’t vote are likely coming up. We saw it happen in 2020 with many passionate for either Trump or Biden, and that going down to other races.”

“While the mid-terms always bring more people out to vote, with LA in particular likely to see a bigger turnout due to the Mayoral race there, Prop 1 and the issue of abortion is going to bring a quick spike, with people both for or against coming out. For Democrats, this is welcome news, as California holds several House elections that are on the bubble that could be the deciding factor for them. Some state elections too, especially in Southern California.”

“For the GOP, a bump in voters who are for abortion could hurt them. Now, they’re still on track to win the House overall, but the red tide many were expecting may only be more of a ripple. Crime and the economy still play pretty well, especially in larger cities for crime, so abortion won’t be the only factor for the vast majority of voters. And let’s not forget it is not even September yet. A big new issue could arise in the next few months. Plus, don’t count out Joe Biden’s unpopularity. Majority of Americans still disapprove of him, and in California, a state you would think would love him, his head is barely above water right now with only the thinnest amount of approval over disapproval.”

“So abortion will be a big issue and could cause some impact, but it is by no means a sole factor on elections this November.”

More polls over abortion and where it stands on important issues are expected to come out in September.

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15 thoughts on “Abortion Emerging as Major Issue in California For 2022 Mid-Term Election

  1. Why would it be a number 1 issue for people in California when they have zero problems getting an abortion in this state. Californians show up and vote Democrat because the culture (algorithms, media, hollywood, C-suites) have told them “right wing ” is bad…and that anything that is not Democrat is “right wing”. Until they break through the spell they will vote Democrat. In LA Bass will become Mayor. A Soros DA and a Soros Mayor will make things more miserable but that is just how far under the spell my state is. This will continue for the next two election cycles. There is no chance to stop the downward momentum now but it will bottom out at some point and the “but my abortion!” crowd will finally lose their luster among voters fed up with CRT, Drag Queen Story Hour, Crime, Crap Schools, Equity, the carbon cult, etc.

  2. I think if folks get informed things will hopefully change. As I understand it there is no time limit, a week or two before birth a woman decides she wants an abortion, wham, bam, thank you mam. I think the 71% would change if they knew there were zero limits, no trimester, no XX weeks or days.

    Makes me sick!

    1. Yes, this is exactly the problem with Prop 1 and no one is getting that. That same 70% of people who say they support abortions’, don’t support it past the first trimester. People don’t realize that Prop 1 will allow abortions right up to to the point of birth and even a little afterwards. It’s so sick. But apparently for the vast majority of CA voters it’s all about ‘muh abortion” and and the slaughter of human life will be magnified as a result.

  3. IMO, long term it does not matter. Whenever Dems lose anything, their reaction is to publicly attack and threaten. Often, their opposition will say “bring it on.” The opposition is energized. Next battle will be in states with legal abortion with lawsuits challenging: when does life begin? That eventually gets to Supremes. What does science say? Overwhelmingly the science consensus is that life begin at conception. If you do not believe me, just google: when does science say life begins? If Supremes decide on basis of what science says, they are likely to outlaw abortion nationwide.

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