The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race: Where It Currently Stands

Since our last recap by the Globe in September, the 2024 U.S. Senate Race in California has taken several new twists and turns. With unexpected new contenders for the Democrats looking to possibly enter because of the death of Dianne Feinstein, ever changing polls, and the looming December entrance deadline, everyone is getting more and more ready for March’s primary. With both the entrance deadline and the primary  approaching fast, this is where the race currently stands as of Friday.

Who is in?

We are now up to 13 Democrats on the ballot now. While the big three of Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA),  Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), and  Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) are still there, no one besides former Google executive and investor Lexi Reese are really getting traction right now. While experts had previously said that no one else big was likely to jump into the race because of the top three’s popularity, the death of Dianne Feinstein has raised that into question. But we’ll get into that next section.

On the GOP side, they are now at nine candidates. Attorney and 2022 GOP candidate for Attorney General Eric Early is still the leading Republican in the race, and is starting to surpass Lee in some polls. However,  businessman and Coast Guard veteran James Bradley has been showing stronger in polls recently, pointing to a possible GOP clash at the primary.

Three third party candidates have also filed, but polls show they aren’t contenders yet. Right now it is still a free-for-all between Schiff, Porter, Lee, Early, Bradley, and Reese. Key words: right now. Because…

Who may be in?

Governor Gavin Newsom’s selection of Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA) as Feinstein’s replacement set off some shockwaves in the past week. This is especially notable because, while Newsom had previously said that his pick would only be a placeholder until the election, he didn’t have her promise to only serve that long. Butler is currently mulling over a 2024 run too, which means an incumbent albeit largely unknown Senator could be another major candidate. Butler is likely to announce which way she is going to go soon because of the time needed to actually build a campaign and set up fundraising. But four major names could even further split Democrats.

Oh wait, sorry, five big names, because Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex and Santa Barbara County resident, is also looking at a possible run now. This scenario would be largely unchartered waters, with a major royal running for office in the United States. She has started to ask around, so this isn’t impossible right now.

For the GOP, Bradley finally got his paperwork in, leaving the main speculative candidate to be former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres MVP Steve Garvey. He has still yet to move beyond expressing interest, but he also hasn’t said that he is pulling out, and his name has been part of recent polls. It’s wait and see on him. Besides him, not too much on the GOP front.

Third party candidates have also been pretty quiet, with no major names mentioned in the last month.

Who is out?

September saw no pull outs, although as the Primary nears, we may see some. But the month was weird – two major potential candidates are looking to get in instead of some pulling out do to poor performances in polls.

Who is backing who?

Democratic candidates have been receiving dozens of endorsements for months now from organizations, labor unions, lawmakers, and prominent individuals. Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-CA) has a wide array of endorsements with most higher state officials, 20 congressional members, 6 state Senators, 11 Assemblymembers, 11 mayors of major Californian cities, a variety of famous individuals including actors and activists, and  over a dozen political organizations. Among her most prominent supporters are California Attorney General Rob Bonta, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA), Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and United Farm Workers co-Founder Dolores Huerta.

Congressman Adam Schiff, meanwhile, has kept up with the number of endorsements Lee received. As of Thursday, he has the endorsement of 29 Congressional members, 9 state Senators, 10 Assemblymembers, several unions, and several major local leaders. Bigger names in his corner include Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Congresswoman Anna Eshoo (D-CA), San Francisco Supervisor Aaron Peskin, Sacramento Mayor Darrell Steinberg, and the IATSE union.

The third major candidate, Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-CA), has been leading most polls in a neck-to-neck race with Schiff, but has only received a handful of endorsements. However, some of the names are prominent, including Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Assemblywoman Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland).

And, after months of waiting to see how it has settled, Republicans have finally begun to receive endorsements. In September alone, Early got the endorsements of former LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, the Yuba County Republican Party, the Santa Barbara County Republican Party, the Nevada County Republican Party and the College Republicans of America, with more likely to back him going into the final months of 2024. For GOP endorsements right now, it is playing catch up, and they are off to a good start.

What is coming up next?

Hoo boy. The Butler situation, and to a lesser extent, the Markle and Garvey situations are likely to be resolved soon thanks to some filing deadlines coming up. For all the current candidates, those are the decisions they’ll be waiting on.

A Data Viewpoint poll released this week also ruffled some feathers. Previous polls showed Schiff and Porter in a constant 1-2 battle, with Lee battling both Bradley and Early. But the most recent poll put Schiff at 19.1%, Porter at 18.9%, Lee at 6.4%, Early at 6.3%, Bradley at 4.4%, and Republican Sarah Liew at 2.6%. While Schiff and Porter aren’t surprising, Early’s near eclipsing of Lee, who has support from dozens of sitting lawmakers on her side compared to Early’s just-now growing list of endorsements, is a sign that the Democrats may be faltering.

With Butler and Markle looking in to possibly further break up Democratic support, the quiet surging of Early could lead to the Democrats scrambling in later months before the primary for a solid candidate.

With the race heating up, expect more fundraising events and emails to come out. If Butler is in, they are going to promote even harder. Right now, it is still the Schiff and Porter show. But there are a lot of variables between now and March that could result in some surprises. Or at the very least, a lot of campaigns having to burn a lot of cash early on.

This coming month is going to be tricky for all candidates involved. And with more polls on the way, likely to include Butler now, the picture is not going to get more clear, but rather murkier.